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FastTuohy wrote:
TuohyFan wrote:
Sure. If I’m wrong, I’ll publicly say that I misjudged Tuohy’s motivation and the strength of other runners and was incorrect in my prediction.
Did I miss this?
Haha, I was wondering when you’d point this out.
I misjudged Tuohy’s personal motivation in this race, as she was already 20 seconds off my prediction at 5k and did not run this race as fast as I thought she would. I also misjudged the strength of her teammates as they fell off the pace pretty drastically at the latter stages of the race.
However, I DID predict that Tuohy would run that final tough 1km in 3:10. She ended up running it much faster than that. So I had a portion of things correct.
Haha, touché though. Good call.
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Jedsdead wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
Just for sh&ts and giggles...here is my top 12 prediction on the Womens side... this is assuming Chmiel and McCabe are not running this weekend. If they are, I would have McCabe in the top 5 and Chmiel in the top 10.
Katelyn Tuohy
Isabel Van Camp
Maddy Denner
Aubrey Frentheway
Samantha Bush
Gracelyn Larkin
Haley Herberg
Kaylee Mitchell
Everlyn Kemboi
Emily Covert
Sydney SeymourMarkezich/Starliper in a photofinish for 12th
I may have screwed up on which runners will be there....
So in looking back...what a crap shoot it is trying to predict XC. For my top 12 predicted, here is there final placement:
Katelyn Tuohy - 1
Isabel Van Camp - 10
Maddy Denner - 101
Aubrey Frentheway - 11
Samantha Bush - 18
Gracelyn Larkin - 9
Haley Herberg - did not run
Kaylee Mitchell - 4
Everlyn Kemboi - 13
Emily Covert - 29
Sydney Seymour - 23
Markezich - 17Starliper did not run
I will take credit for Chmiel though So of the top 12 predicted, I only got 6...hope no Parley bets were placed on that.
Some interesting takes though...
Kemboi - never contended
Bush fell back mid race then held
Seymour dropped towards the last km...but I would say that is just conditioning
Denner - no idea what happened
Covert - I hoped she would do better, but I am not surprised
Van Camp - that had to be disappointing for her
other interesting notables: nice race for Dudek. Dishon was solid. Ramsden I was not expecting at all, Sterns stayed solid the whole race...stuck at the front and never wavered.
It is tough, looking in this race while the top 5 or so separated themselves, from 10 to 20 was 10 seconds and from 20 to 30 was 6 seconds. In a close team battle who wins the tight finishes determines things. Bush had the same time (20:11.9) as Dudek and Markezich but was 4rd of those 3. Thorner was same time as Thornton-Bott but was 2nd of those 2 and was only 0.2 behind Seymour.
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NCAA:
"Robinson's effort gave him the fastest time ... since the course was altered in 2018"
Anyone know the alterations were before or after the 2018 race?
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Blank231 wrote:
NCAA:
"Robinson's effort gave him the fastest time ... since the course was altered in 2018"
Anyone know the alterations were before or after the 2018 race?
someone posted as they were done before the site hosted the ncaa championship so I'd guess before that season. Try messaging UW on twitter (or maybe they have an email contact) and ask specifically when/how it was modified - they acknowledged to me the course had been modified but did not respond when I asked if it affected times.
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I have been on the course dozens of times through that period and don't know what changes were made.
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some "behind the scenes" coverage W race about 7:00 in....carnage afterwards
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FastTuohy wrote:
some "behind the scenes" coverage W race about 7:00 in....carnage afterwards
Buried in the headlines, you know I have to mention Dudek? Out for 1 yr with super major injury, literally first race back she's 16th at Nutty, 1st for Stanford. Im still stock up on her in the next yr. What a great come back race. I dont think a soul noticed this piece of interesting news.
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bigmig19 wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
some "behind the scenes" coverage W race about 7:00 in....carnage afterwards
Buried in the headlines, you know I have to mention Dudek? Out for 1 yr with super major injury, literally first race back she's 16th at Nutty, 1st for Stanford. Im still stock up on her in the next yr. What a great come back race. I dont think a soul noticed this piece of interesting news.
I agree...we chatted about her a bit in another thread after Nutty...if she is healthy she is a real threat to get into the top 20. I place her and Starliper in the same category. But I think thats a tall order for this year for Dudek.... as she regains her running fitness.
Starliper should be further along.
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Jedsdead wrote:
bigmig19 wrote:
Buried in the headlines, you know I have to mention Dudek? Out for 1 yr with super major injury, literally first race back she's 16th at Nutty, 1st for Stanford. Im still stock up on her in the next yr. What a great come back race. I dont think a soul noticed this piece of interesting news.
I agree...we chatted about her a bit in another thread after Nutty...if she is healthy she is a real threat to get into the top 20. I place her and Starliper in the same category. But I think thats a tall order for this year for Dudek.... as she regains her running fitness.
Starliper should be further along.
yes, here
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FastTuohy wrote:
Jedsdead wrote:
I agree...we chatted about her a bit in another thread after Nutty...if she is healthy she is a real threat to get into the top 20. I place her and Starliper in the same category. But I think thats a tall order for this year for Dudek.... as she regains her running fitness.
Starliper should be further along.
yes, here
Thanks.
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Jedsdead wrote:
bigmig19 wrote:
Buried in the headlines, you know I have to mention Dudek? Out for 1 yr with super major injury, literally first race back she's 16th at Nutty, 1st for Stanford. Im still stock up on her in the next yr. What a great come back race. I dont think a soul noticed this piece of interesting news.
I agree...we chatted about her a bit in another thread after Nutty...if she is healthy she is a real threat to get into the top 20. I place her and Starliper in the same category. But I think thats a tall order for this year for Dudek.... as she regains her running fitness.
Starliper should be further along.
Top 20 is a good goal. Her ceiling appears quite high. Ran low19s and! high 19s on easier courses right out of HS. Even when talking stanford xc, nobody mentions her. Hope she holds together. Just wish stanford stopped taking our great michigan runners!
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Immediately after the last race the courses were changed. I believe that Sean Hartnett (he does the race graphics be for majors like London, Berlin, and is a non-retired prof who does GIS stuff) did the layout, probably working with Zimmer (course donor) and Byrne (coach). The prior series of S curves would not work with 5000-10,000 people on the course because they would get to crowded . The old courses were short, especially the women's mainly at the end. They probably have the Regionals there next year in preparation for the NCAA meet the next year.
After the first lap (2km) both men's and women's course turns back up the starting stretch. After that the men repeat the first loop while the women make a cut before that, go up just the second half of the steep climb at "1km", then does an S curve downhill to the section the parallels the starting straight in the opposite direction. It then does a long U behind the Start line and curves up behind the finish into the woods and then downhill. I think that it then goes all the way to the bottom of the course because if you look at the FloTrack video that is where Kolati made her move going up that steep section, and then it repeats that S curve, then the U but come up the finish straight. So the last kilo starts with a longish downhill, when flat, slow up, then up all the way to the Finish Line.
Here are the links to the course and the course maps; hope this helps
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Changed how? My son says it has never changed. He haa run it hundreds of times. The s curve path is used for the 5k. The course has always been what it is. And this year's course was the driest and fastest ever.
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Lengthen in 2018 wrote:
Immediately after the last race the courses were changed.
Thanks for the info!
Just want to clarify, what did you mean by immediately after the last? Eg after 2018 champs, or 2018 nutty, before or something else?
thanks
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Nuts for it wrote:
I (finally) had the bright idea to watch a 2017 race and yes the course was run differently. This may be exactly what "Lengthen in 2018" says but I didn't follow until I saw it. Back then at 2K instead of going back through the start line and up the first straightaway they doubled back through the S portion of the course that is in the Men's race (but not in current 6K course) and then back parallel to the start straightaway and then to the upper part where the current 4K mark is. Then coming down that hill they cut right across to the top of the hill near the current 5K mark and then finished as today. (Today they go all the way to the low point as they do approaching 1K). So the current course has an extra hill (you now run up the total "1K" hill twice) while before it was only once, and then the very top as they do today near 3K. Perhaps more clearly now they basically do 3 2K loops, while before they did 2 loops and an "internal" 2K. So comparing times before and after the change is apples and oranges. Flotrack has the entire 2015 and 2017 races but you need a membership.
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UW wrote:
Snowflakes wrote:
Why are Tuohy and Young wearing gloves? They’re so soft
The Washington men were literally wearing hoodies ??
its called Nuttycold for a reason
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#618
This post was removed.
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Course map from 2017 is here, FYI:
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Nuts for it wrote:
I have been on the course dozens of times through that period and don't know what changes were made.
They took out the inner loop on the 6k course and lengthened it. It was short now legit 6k. Probability 15-20 sec slower now if you look at the historical times and take into account course and weather conditions.
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