I didn’t say OSU WILL win but they CAN win and look at how the conversation has shifted back on topic.
I can agree that if both nc St and NM have bad days osu could win. I just don't think that will be the case. Osu is a very good team. But I see NM scoring around 100 with nobody in top 10. I see osu more like 140. But a bunch of runners i project in top 60 could drop and that could drop osus 5th score.
Fair points. We are all speculating here and I will speculate the course adds 10-20 points to NCST and NM and subtracts 10-20 points to OSU team score versus nationals run on a different course. That makes this one a lot closer than many think.
I can agree that if both nc St and NM have bad days osu could win. I just don't think that will be the case. Osu is a very good team. But I see NM scoring around 100 with nobody in top 10. I see osu more like 140. But a bunch of runners i project in top 60 could drop and that could drop osus 5th score.
Fair points. We are all speculating here and I will speculate the course adds 10-20 points to NCST and NM and subtracts 10-20 points to OSU team score versus nationals run on a different course. That makes this one a lot closer than many think.
Perhaps, they certainly know the course. NM does run conservatively and did that effectively at Nuttycombe so they seem less likely to blow up than most. Also have something like 10 second spread 1-6 (not just 1-5).
I have McCabe ahead of Valby...Roe as well. They are solid hill runners. If Valby can run the hills, she makes this very interesting.
Will Valby go out extremely fast...I don't think so...I believe her and Tuohy will sit at the front together. Tuohy knows she can run a low 19 pace on a hilly course, does Valby? Mccabe, Chmiel, Mercy and Roe can run hills very well. Of this top group, Valby has the least experience running this type of course and front running against this talent.
Maybe Valby tries to push hard to the first hill, but I don;t think Tuohy or McCabe let her get much of a gap. And then we will see how things stand.
I have McCabe ahead of Valby...Roe as well. They are solid hill runners. If Valby can run the hills, she makes this very interesting.
Will Valby go out extremely fast...I don't think so...I believe her and Tuohy will sit at the front together. Tuohy knows she can run a low 19 pace on a hilly course, does Valby? Mccabe, Chmiel, Mercy and Roe can run hills very well. Of this top group, Valby has the least experience running this type of course and front running against this talent.
Maybe Valby tries to push hard to the first hill, but I don;t think Tuohy or McCabe let her get much of a gap. And then we will see how things stand.
Regardless...it will be a banger of a race!!
It is very easy to go out "fast" on this course especially in the big field. 18 months ago the 1K was 3:05 and then it goes downhill into the first hill but then they backed off and were about 6:25 at 2K and 10:05 at 3K. But after the first hill at about 1.5 K it is downhill to 2K.
Fair points. We are all speculating here and I will speculate the course adds 10-20 points to NCST and NM and subtracts 10-20 points to OSU team score versus nationals run on a different course. That makes this one a lot closer than many think.
Perhaps, they certainly know the course. NM does run conservatively and did that effectively at Nuttycombe so they seem less likely to blow up than most. Also have something like 10 second spread 1-6 (not just 1-5).
Perhaps, they certainly know the course. NM does run conservatively and did that effectively at Nuttycombe so they seem less likely to blow up than most. Also have something like 10 second spread 1-6 (not just 1-5).
NM's 1-5 spread was 34 seconds at conference
They did not run everyone! Such as Dishon (#1 at Nuttycombe). Goldstein was the 5th at conference and Dishon beat her by 23 seconds at Nuttycombe. But I will correct myself - the 6th has not been as close to the 5th more recently.
LACCTiC is all based on relative time performances. If conditions affect everyone equally, it should handle them pretty well.
By the way, the scores have been changing around a bit this weekend. Sorry if thats been confusing for anyone - I've been trying to tweak some outlier removal to make the scoring system a bit more robust.
How would lacctic handle a situation with a course that is listed at 6k but is short, so the times are faster?
Lacctic never takes into account the distance of the race. All it takes into account is how much faster people ran at one race vs another. If people on average ran 5% faster in one race than another, then the rating is adjusted by around 5%. That 5% could be because of course, distance, or weather - doesn’t matter.
I have McCabe ahead of Valby...Roe as well. They are solid hill runners. If Valby can run the hills, she makes this very interesting.
Will Valby go out extremely fast...I don't think so...I believe her and Tuohy will sit at the front together. Tuohy knows she can run a low 19 pace on a hilly course, does Valby? Mccabe, Chmiel, Mercy and Roe can run hills very well. Of this top group, Valby has the least experience running this type of course and front running against this talent.
Maybe Valby tries to push hard to the first hill, but I don;t think Tuohy or McCabe let her get much of a gap. And then we will see how things stand.
Regardless...it will be a banger of a race!!
Speaking of LACCTiC, this is how the individuals are predicted for the NCAA finals:
I have McCabe ahead of Valby...Roe as well. They are solid hill runners. If Valby can run the hills, she makes this very interesting.
Will Valby go out extremely fast...I don't think so...I believe her and Tuohy will sit at the front together. Tuohy knows she can run a low 19 pace on a hilly course, does Valby? Mccabe, Chmiel, Mercy and Roe can run hills very well. Of this top group, Valby has the least experience running this type of course and front running against this talent.
Maybe Valby tries to push hard to the first hill, but I don;t think Tuohy or McCabe let her get much of a gap. And then we will see how things stand.
Regardless...it will be a banger of a race!!
It is very easy to go out "fast" on this course especially in the big field. 18 months ago the 1K was 3:05 and then it goes downhill into the first hill but then they backed off and were about 6:25 at 2K and 10:05 at 3K. But after the first hill at about 1.5 K it is downhill to 2K.
So given that it is a downhill at the start, very hard for Valby to be able to make a break early...they will all be going fast. Maybe in the 1.5K - 2.5k spot if she is going to try push the leaders.
Wrt ‘hilly courses’ — Stillwater is not ‘hilly’ a la the UVA course (or some others). It has a long uphill section on the east side, accentuated by a couple short steep climbs. The effect is that ‘recovery’ after the steeper climbs is not level or downhill, it is a less-steep uphill — and you get to do it twice. That’s why it’s such a challenge.
Wrt ‘hilly courses’ — Stillwater is not ‘hilly’ a la the UVA course (or some others). It has a long uphill section on the east side, accentuated by a couple short steep climbs. The effect is that ‘recovery’ after the steeper climbs is not level or downhill, it is a less-steep uphill — and you get to do it twice. That’s why it’s such a challenge.
The steeper hills are at about 1500, 3500 and 4500 and before and after each there are downhills. I think the challenge is from 2000 (low point) to 3000 with the long uphill, repeated at 5000.
Is that the same Chelangat that Tuohy soundly beat by 12 seconds at Joe Piane? Who knows? Maybe Tuohy has a bad race. It is very possible that Valby wins. I said at the beginning she would be Tuohy's main competition again, intrusive ideas about BTC shenanigans aside. But as much as I admire ratings and the effort that goes into them, college xc has way too many variables and far too few data points. In high school you did not really have sit and kick style races. You also did not have all this uncertainty about course lengths and arrangements. Plus you had much more info about how courses run year to year. Ratings are fun, but you still need to account for actual results in trying to make predictions. I think the SEC debacle fried the circuits.
Nah. People are overinterpreting the Lacctic ratings and this is an example of numerical bias. The SR tried to account for fast courses. It is not easy.
Riiiggghhhhht. Would have blown Tuohy's doors off at Joe Piane, the last three times they raced notwithstanding. I still laugh that the 3rd place runner at SEC ran 18:54.
Riiiggghhhhht. Would have blown Tuohy's doors off at Joe Piane, the last three times they raced notwithstanding. I still laugh that the 3rd place runner at SEC ran 18:54.
One of the challenges with speed ratings and I think the LACCTiC ratings is on easy courses it is easier for the more average runners to run well, while on the hard courses they get eaten alive but the better runners handle better. With speed ratings as I recall this makes it harder for the best runners to get high speed ratings on easy courses. With LACCTiC it looks like it it easier for everyone to get faster ratings.
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