2019 girls Foot Locker predictions and discussion!

I don't know I think starliper might take it

Starliper vanderkooi ewert masciarelli Hutchins top five

No Way

Not if Tuohy only did one Championship race like masciarelli

Yeah the other girls are definitely closer to her but she's been beating Walters by 20 30 Second all year

She beat Hutchins by 30 seconds

Anyway her average speed ratings was still about 10 points higher than anyone else that's still pretty big gap we'll see what happens but I think starliper is going to take it

No. Tuohy would not win Footlocker. That is why she chose the path she did.

Masciarelli

Dudek

Vanderkooi

Starliper

Ewert

I think the top 5-7 are so close in times that I know I am not smart enough to know who will win, finish 2nd, etc. One or 2 will have really good days and probably be close and the rest will be off just enough (or more) to not be.

Yet no one has done it in three years. Each race is different. If people wanted a shot at her, they missed their opportunity. NXN was the big game this year. And it is not like the two you mention have been unbeatable this year. Starliper beat Masciarelli soundly and did not make the nxn podium. FL will be a good race. The rested runners will have an advantage.

Always easy to pick the person or team on top. They won't be there forever. She looked the most vulnerable last week. Yes she may be the best HS XC runner of all time but her peak appears to have been a few weeks ago. Is Grace Ping still at her peak? She hit it 2 years ago. Is Cain at her peak? She hit it 5 years ago. Is Ritz still at his peak? He hit it 10 years ago? Is Ryun still at his peak? He hit it 50 years ago.

I'm really hoping Ewert pulls out the win. This girl continues performing well in championships (now 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the past 3 XC national championships she has run in) and she still is underrated. She really has nothing to lose going for the win.

It seems if she fades anywhere it happens about the 2.5/2.75 mile mark (based on NXR and Thorvaldson passing her at NXN), but NXN proved she has solid closing speed (then passing up Thorvaldson). She did very well doubling last year, so she at least has experience doing it.

The interesting thing is every girl predicted to be in the Top 5 has run the course before (expect Dudek). I think Starliper was at a bit of a disadvantage at NXN since every other girl in the top group ran NXN the previous year. It's crazy to think this race could top the excitement of NXN.

Hart seems to have dropped from the discussion.

Two Hehe wrote:

Always easy to pick the person or team on top. They won't be there forever. She looked the most vulnerable last week. Yes she may be the best HS XC runner of all time but her peak appears to have been a few weeks ago. Is Grace Ping still at her peak? She hit it 2 years ago. Is Cain at her peak? She hit it 5 years ago. Is Ritz still at his peak? He hit it 10 years ago? Is Ryun still at his peak? He hit it 50 years ago.

Did you seriously just say that Tuohy peaked a few weeks ago??

You are 100% right that everyone will peak at some point (not sure that really required clarification), but you are saying that you have the ability to know the exact moment that a 17 year old girl has peaked with absolutely no information to support it. In general, people who point out the peak of an athletes career will wait until they actually have some basis of fact...which unfortunately means waiting a sufficient amount of time and seeing a large number of competitive races.

Tuohy, Ping, and every other competitive girl in that age group has years of growth in front of them still. But I'm really choked about what you said about Ryun...I had just picked him in my 2020 Olympic Darkhorse draft...

Should be a great race...

Starliper

Hart - i expect/hope she comes back strong from last week

Ewert

Vanderkooi

Dudek

Tullyrunners has five co-favorites:

Masciarelli, Starliper, Ewert, Dudek, and Vanderkooi

http://tullyrunners.com/XC2019/FootlockerPreview2019.htm

Not sure why Appleton's NEPSTA D3 Championship was not speed rated when Masciarelli's D4 was, nor why any of her other races where the Marianapolis invite registered a speed rating? Seems inconsistent and therefore incomplete data collection.

fastTuohy wrote:

I think the top 5-7 are so close in times that I know I am not smart enough to know who will win, finish 2nd, etc. One or 2 will have really good days and probably be close and the rest will be off just enough (or more) to not be.

I think the only question mark is Hart, she had a bad nxn last year but this one was a little worse so it will be interesting to see how she comes back from that.

I would have expected Dudek to do very well but as mentioned she will prob be even more exhausted than the nxn girls due to the international travel so we’ll see.

Starliper will definitely be up there, vanderkoi beat Ewert (who has shown how strong she is) so those 3 are certainly all in the mix as well.

It will be very interesting because FL there always seems to be a front runner, and I think it could be any of these girls depending on who is feeling good that day, or they could all run as a pack.

I expect masciarelli to be about 7th but she is the most rested and she does like to attack those hills. If she wins I will have to say that the other girls being tired clearly affected the results as this season she has not proved to be quite as good as the others mentioned.

I agree. So Methner probably would have won NXN had he not be so tired? He set the Illinois course record. He then won NXR. He then won FL Midwest. He then was 2nd at NXN. Nobody else that tough of a race schedule or resume.

Meth is bad Methner is good wrote:

I agree. So Methner probably would have won NXN had he not be so tired? He set the Illinois course record. He then won NXR. He then won FL Midwest. He then was 2nd at NXN. Nobody else that tough of a race schedule or resume.

actually there were several girls that I know of that raced 5 straight weeks, I'm sure guys were the same...Methner was not alone.

Going to be a fun race to watch... there are 7-10 legitimate contenders. I hope Hart has a good bounce back race. She has done so several times in the past.

Most of these girls are generally pack runners...will be very interesting to see if one of them decides to take off. They have seen Tuohy do it so many times, but having Nico do it when it was unexpected certainly has to have some of them thinking ....

If Starliper or Hart feel good, they might be the ones to push the pace. Anyone else feeling good will go with them. Otherwise I think it will be a pack. I do not see Masciarelli, Vanderkooi or Dudek taking the lead early and forcing the pace. After 2 miles, anything goes.

Twohey's average speed rating this year 165 with a high of 170

Starliper ewert and thorvaldson average 157 with a high of 163

Massarelli average 154 with a high of 157

Dudek 155 with a high of 160

You're either misinformed or intentionally trolling

She's still by far the best cross-country runner in the country. She's going to get her third Gatorade Runner of the year

Vanderkooy is the only other top girl who's undefeated but her speed ratings aren't even close she's averaging like 147 with a high of 160.

We'll see who wins Foot Locker and what their speed ratings are but it's just dumb to say that if she focused solely on that race she wouldn't win