Will Galen Rupp place in the Olympic marathon?

Last is a place. Everyone places.

Silver 4 Galen

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Jerry Maguire wrote:

Lack of experience=No medal wrote:

Galen's chances of winning gold is virtually 0. His chances of medaling are approximately the same as Trump being the next POTUS (per Nate Silver this right around 10%).

They are saying it's going to much hotter this coming Sunday than it was for the women's marathon. This strongly favors the Africans--who were already going to beat Rupp anyway.

In the heat, the best shot at a medal is Meb for the US. My bet is for the US runners is....

Meb (3rd) in 2:10:27

Rupp (14th) in 2:14:56

Ward (18th) in 2:16:43

EASILY the WORST prediction so far of the Olympics, but good job... please retire you handle.

RUPP is walking away with a MEDAL, very likely GOLD GOAT AMER

You heard it hear first. RUPP will win GOLD, SILVER, AND BRONZE!

Don't forget that when he ran that 26:44 it was a time trial and he probably could have run 26:2x if he had wanted to.

Sure wrote:

I'm betting on him getting gold, he's a great distance runner, head and shoulders above the rest of the white world, he also does better in hotter races, like the Olympics, remember in Beijing when kpisang and kimettow both dnf'd? I'm predicting the same with Biwott and kipchoge just won't have the final kick to beat rupp, meb top 10, ward top 20

He's also good when it's 72 and rainy. He will win Gold, Silver, and Bronze.

The weather is now showing 78 degrees for 9 a.m. with high humidity, rain supposedly holding off until afternoon. If true, that is going to help Rupp. He will be on the podium, no one will drop him even though no one will want him close at the finish.

lottojumbo wrote:

1. Kipchoge 2. Rupp 3. Biwott

Ditto.

I hope Rupp runs tough and challenges Kipchoge even if it ultimately costs him.

I also hope it is hot.[/quote]

Rupp will finish 10th, 2 places behind Meb. The Kenyans will run as a team and the Ethiopians will run as a team and Rupp will get drawn into at least 2 false surges the teams will instigate between miles 12 and 22. Immediately following this, the likely suspects will run miles 23-25 somewhere in the low 4:20s and, weakened by the earlier surges, he won't be able to maintain their withering pace. He'll be spit out the back of the pack and Meb will pass him late in mile 25 after running in relative anonymity the entire race.

Rupp will walk away with a deep sense of confusion and bewilderment that he's never experienced before because racing an international field in a major marathon as an outsider is a losing proposition of nightmarish scale.

We'll make all kinds of excuses for him; blaming the wind, the rain, labeling those who medal as cheaters, but all along Rupp will know deep inside that what he just experienced was something primal, and tribal, and it's a place he doesn't yet understand or belong. Hopefully he'll have the courage to earn his place in due time.

The way to answer this is with probability estimates:

Chance it is a tactical race = .8

Chance Rupp wins tactical = .15

Win = .12

Chance Rupp medals tactical = .25

Medal = .2

Chance fast race = .2

Chance Rupp wins fast = .00

Win = 0

Medal = .1

Medal = .02

Total = .12 + .2 + .02 = .34 or 34%

Best analysis so far.

Also consider:

5) Rupp is in 2:05 shape, which means he can hang with anyone in the field.

6) The race won't be as fast as 2:05, which means the pace will ramp up over the latter stages like the women's. This favors Rupp.

7) Considering the race will play out like the women's, Rupp will play the Shalane role of hanging with the lead group through 20. The difference is that Rupp is in world class condition and he will be able to hang with the late fast miles.

8) Whether he wins, medals, or just misses out will come down to the last couple of miles. If he can't be dropped before the final km he will be a threat for any position. If he's there at that point, watch out.

Ryan Hall, shirtless, shredded, hot, 165 lbs, banditing FTW

Rupp DNS

Howyadoit wrote:

The way to answer this is with probability estimates:

Chance it is a tactical race = .8

Chance Rupp wins tactical = .15

Win = .12

Chance Rupp medals tactical = .25

Medal = .2

Chance fast race = .2

Chance Rupp wins fast = .00

Win = 0

Medal = .1

Medal = .02

Total = .12 + .2 + .02 = .34 or 34%

Don't know if you are trying to be humerous. But for someone who posts in quasi-mathematical terms it's pretty funny how you added up those probabilities to equal something that is devoid of any reasonable meaning (even taking your basic methodology and assumptions as given).

I definitely think Rupp could go sub 2:02. I don't think this is the race to do it, but I wager he'll set the world record within the next month. Obviously he'll snag gold Sunday.

But I did hear this and I hope, HOPE, it's just a rumor. Kipchoge and Biwott are so threatened by Rupp that they have little baggies of pollen sewn into their shorts. That would mean they'd start Rupp-dusting. Now this better just be a rumor, but if it's not I know Rupp will push through whatever they throw at him. He should pack the mask just in case.

Howyadoit wrote:

The way to answer this is with probability estimates:

Chance it is a tactical race = .8

Chance Rupp wins tactical = .15

Win = .12

Chance Rupp medals tactical = .25

Medal = .2

Chance fast race = .2

Chance Rupp wins fast = .00

Win = 0

Medal = .1

Medal = .02

Total = .12 + .2 + .02 = .34 or 34%

Does medal exclude gold? Then you are saying 40% change of medal in a tactical race. Otherwise you are saying a 15% chance of gold and 10% change of either silver or bronze. I think that's way too optimistic for medals in the first case and way too optimistic for bronze in the second place.

Let's assume you mean, by medals, that includes 1, 2, or 3. Then the math below is wrong since the 0.2 already includes the 0.12, and your total should be 22%.

Regardless, I like the breakdown of your approach. Let's clarify the math so others can debate the probabilities. I'm leaving in your probabilities below and assuming the probability of medaling is split evenly between silver and bronze (with the leftovers after taking away the gold probability):

Let G, S, and B be the probabilities of Gold, Silver, and Bronze.

Prob of tactical race, P(T)=0.80

Prob of fast race, P(F)=0.20

Given a tactical race (T):

- Prob of Rupp Gold in a tactical race, P(G|T)=0.15

- Prob of Rupp Silver in a tactical race, P(S|T)=0.05

- Prob of Rupp Bronze in a tactical race, P(B|T)=0.05

- Prob of Rupp Medalling in a tactical race, then, is P(G|T)+P(S|T)+P(B|T)=0.25

Given a fast race (F):

- Prob of Rupp Gold in a fast race, P(G|F)=0

- Prob of Rupp Silver in a fast race, P(S|F)=0.02

- Prob of Rupp Bronze in a fast race, P(B|F)=0.08

- Prob of Rupp Medalling in a fast race, then, is P(G|F)+P(S|F)+P(B|F)=0.1

Total probability of winning a gold its P(T)P(G|T)+P(F)P(G|F)=(0.8)(0.15)+(0.2)(0)=0.12, or 12%

Total probability of winning a medal of any color is: P(T)[P(G|T)+P(S|T)+P(B|T)]+P(F)[P(G|F)+P(S|F)+P(B|F)]=(0.8)(0.25)+(0.2)(0.1)=0.22, or 22%

I'd go with different probabilities above, going with P(T)=90%

- Prob of Rupp Gold in a tactical race, P(G|T)=0.03

- Prob of Rupp Silver in a tactical race, P(S|T)=0.05

- Prob of Rupp Bronze in a tactical race, P(B|T)=0.15

- Prob of Rupp Gold in a fast race, P(G|F)=0.01

- Prob of Rupp Silver in a fast race, P(S|F)=0.02

- Prob of Rupp Bronze in a fast race, P(B|F)=0.08

Then probability of gold is (0.9)(.03)+(0.1)(0.01)=0.028, or 2.8%

Probability of a medal of any color is (0.9)(0.23)+(0.1)(0.11)=0.218, or 21.8%

nothing like math to kill an LRC thread