Interesting,..
Kipsang was last November warned publicly by AK for skipping a mandatory out of competition doping test and he had not reportedly informed the Federation of his whereabouts.
Had missed that, did that count as a "no show" for Kipsang ?
"We shall soon appoint someone how best to manage the affected athletes from within the Federation as we are allowed by the IAAF that any athlete that has no agent will be handled by the Federation."
AK seems a little unprepared there...
The Kipsang "missed test" was covered here:
http://www.letsrun.com/archive/2014/12/18/
Kipsang's response:
1) His whereabouts calendar was updated
2) Attending athletic conference in South Africa
3) AK knew the details
4) No reason to make a press report after one missed test
5) AK is trying to intimidate him for political reasons
Steve Seekins wrote:
DubbleDutch wrote:Hermiens will be next, Rosas and Van der Veen are so obvious it is silly. The Kenyan ship will sink further with the Other Italians getting busted. Ethiopia won't let testers in - there is a problem there than greatly exceeds that in Kenyan
If this poster is correct, that Ethiopia won't let testers in, than it needs to be reported. Does anyone have evidence of this? The fact that this poster can't spell people's names correctly rather undermines their credibility, but they might still know what they are talking about.
He's lying.
We read of blood testing taking place now on organised trips, where athletes are rounded up to facilitate getting the blood out of kenya to a lab in time to test it. Tell me where the reports of Ethiopia are - exactly !! The federation will not cooperate so this cannot happen
hopla wrote:
Blood tests must be stored cold and analyzed within 24 hours at a WADA accredited lab.
Which is why, until that new lab in Eldoret is up and running, East Africans in the pool are targeted for blood testing as soon as they go somewhere where it's feasible.
Who coaches the athletes concerned? Are the coaches also banned?
Do rosa and Volare also represent other non Kenyan athletes?
Ken Yan wrote:
Who coaches the athletes concerned? Are the coaches also banned?
Do rosa and Volare also represent other non Kenyan athletes?
You can see who the agents represents through the links given by the OP in his second post of the thread.
AK also closed the Keringet camp
AK on Monday announced the closure of the Keringet training camp ran by former national cross-country team coach Charles Ng’eno who has in the past used training programs designed by one of the most successful athletics coach Italian Renato Canova and banned the local tactician from handling any local athletes’ indefinitely.
Rosa Associati camp managed by Italian Federico Rosa who coached leading marathoner Rita Jeptoo who is currently serving a two-year ban for EPO, and handles several Kenyan athletes including reigning World champions Eunice Sum (800m), Asbel Kiprop(1500m) is being probed by the AK Medical and Doping commission, the newly established Anti- Doping Agency of Kenya and the Kenya Police as he had three top level runners implicated in doping in the last four years.
agip wrote:
"Just because you believe it doesn't make it true."
that's MY point clerk - I'll believe top Kenyan performances are EPOaided when there is evidence that those performances are EPOaided. And not before.
But aren't YOU believing that top E African performances are doped...without any evidence? (citing amazing performances is not 'evidence.')
For the record, you have been pretty accurate on the prevalence of doping in Kenya and Ethiopia - but it is still a bunch of B teamers, 'cepting unlovely Rita.
Why aren't amazing performances evidence? I see now other explanation for amazing performances. How are times dropping so fast?
You think you're waiting for evidence, when your waiting for your evidence. While waiting for a positive tests (and you won't have to wait much longer), you're ignoring the evidence of unnatural drops in performance times, athletes beating known doped runners handily, evidence of a culture of doping in the region, nation, and sport, evidence of a corrupt national and international federation, witness accounts of the prevalence of doping and lack of controls, and finally, evidence that false-negatives are so prevalent that waiting for a positive is a disservice to anti-doping.
You hit the nail on the head. This is government sanctioned extortion. AK is taking over the management and the winning percentage and I can guarantee you it will be more than the 15% the reputable agents charge. I work with Kenyans and several of their managers and I can attest that if there is any problem, it is with AK and not the management. AK will take 50% of the appearance fees, 50% of the winnings (at least) and then extort money from gerhard and gabriele in order to manage their athletes again. Kiplagat looks like he is pulling off one more heist before getting out of dodge. He has seen the frustration with his corruption grow, understands the mutiny athletes are planning against his regime and thinks it is time to out with a bang. kiplagat has done more to ruin Kenyan athletics than Stephanie Hightower ever could in the us.
It really upsets me reading the crap that is being posted here by people who have never been to kenya, don't know a Kenyan, and then assuming accusations are true just because they are made. These are people simply trying to feed their families. The only avenue they have open to them is running. They would trade places with the cubicle trolls that post here any day that sit and pass judgment. Does this need to survive lead some to cheat? Probably. Does this reflect the majority of Kenyan runners out there, hell no.
clerk wrote:
agip wrote:"Just because you believe it doesn't make it true."
that's MY point clerk - I'll believe top Kenyan performances are EPOaided when there is evidence that those performances are EPOaided. And not before.
But aren't YOU believing that top E African performances are doped...without any evidence? (citing amazing performances is not 'evidence.')
For the record, you have been pretty accurate on the prevalence of doping in Kenya and Ethiopia - but it is still a bunch of B teamers, 'cepting unlovely Rita.
Why aren't amazing performances evidence? I see now other explanation for amazing performances. How are times dropping so fast?
You think you're waiting for evidence, when your waiting for your evidence. While waiting for a positive tests (and you won't have to wait much longer), you're ignoring the evidence of unnatural drops in performance times, athletes beating known doped runners handily, evidence of a culture of doping in the region, nation, and sport, evidence of a corrupt national and international federation, witness accounts of the prevalence of doping and lack of controls, and finally, evidence that false-negatives are so prevalent that waiting for a positive is a disservice to anti-doping.
are times dropping fast?
20th best marathon times, according to aimsworldrunning.org:
2014: 2:06:17
2013: 2:05:12
2012: 2:05:42
2011: 2:06:28
...
2006: 2:08:03
so there hasn't been any drop at all for the last few years. However there has been a serious speeding up over the last 10 years. Not sure what to make of those data.
You would probably say that 2 minutes improvement is evidence of doping. I'd say maybe, I dunno. Lots of factors involved. The world marathon majors concept has made the event massively richer, no?
but in the end, I am not prepared to say 'he is too fast to be running naturally' based in times. The history of sport is one new plateau after the next, following groundbreaking individuals. That's how it works. If you deny that process...not sure how you explain any breakthrough a la Ali, Nicklaus, Jordan, Pele, etc....the game gets raised and everyone follows along. Doesn't prove drug use.
clerk wrote:
agip wrote:"Just because you believe it doesn't make it true."
that's MY point clerk - I'll believe top Kenyan performances are EPOaided when there is evidence that those performances are EPOaided. And not before.
But aren't YOU believing that top E African performances are doped...without any evidence? (citing amazing performances is not 'evidence.')
For the record, you have been pretty accurate on the prevalence of doping in Kenya and Ethiopia - but it is still a bunch of B teamers, 'cepting unlovely Rita.
Why aren't amazing performances evidence? I see now other explanation for amazing performances. How are times dropping so fast?
You think you're waiting for evidence, when your waiting for your evidence. While waiting for a positive tests (and you won't have to wait much longer), you're ignoring the evidence of unnatural drops in performance times, athletes beating known doped runners handily, evidence of a culture of doping in the region, nation, and sport, evidence of a corrupt national and international federation, witness accounts of the prevalence of doping and lack of controls, and finally, evidence that false-negatives are so prevalent that waiting for a positive is a disservice to anti-doping.
I think speak for a big cohort of track fans who deeply want past, current and future drugs cheats out and outed, but who don't agree that fast times alone are enough to implicate someone as a cheat.
Of course, I play the same game as everyone else in my mind. Who is more improbable, el G or Gebrselassie? Personally, I'd love to see el G. caught; yet somehow I'd be heartbroken to learn that Geb was cheating. Is there any logic to this? No. It's pure tribalism on my part of the sort that makes someone a Yankees or a Red Sox fan. It has nothing to do with whatever evidence may exist about ethics of these two athletes.
What we should really hope for is empirical evidence either linked to testing the bodies of those athletes or by the testimony of people associated with those athletes. I would very much like to know if the middle and long distance records of the sub 3:45, sub-13, sub-27, sub 2:07 eras are bona fide.
Simply saying "nobody could run those times without cheating" is a cop out. Why? Because the EPO era also coincided with other changes in the circumstances of elite African athletes, such as better coaching, better material circumstances, and greater freedom to chose agents that would help their careers--factors that in earlier eras hampered the success of African runners. I see no reason to discount the possibility that sorting out these issues--without EPO--would lead very quickly to the amazing times we saw in the 1990s. Does this mean that EPO was not also part of the story? Of course not, but to say that, baring empirical evidence, EPO is the only way such progress could be made, feels to me like believing in magic. The talent pool that produced the East African stars of the 60s, 70s, 80s, could definitely lead to what was achieved in the 90s and later--even without drug cheating.
I have some faith that a greater truth will prevail. But we need to keep the pressure relentlessly so that, as we move forward in time, the disgruntled trainer, the guilty athlete, the discredited official, choose to speak out about what they know--so that these people realize they have an audience who cares. I hold out hope for this, just as I hold out hope that some people were clean. I realize that some will call me overly idealistic, but for me, this sport is all about hope for the progress of human achievement, whether it be in athletics purely, or in the administration of athletics.
after looking at the data, I'll revise a little:
2012 and 2013 are looking like fast outliers....
In the years 2009-2011, the #20 marathon performance was 2:06 mid.
Then 2012 and 2013 that dropped to 2:05 mid.
Then in 2014 it came back up to 2:06 mid
Maybe the advent of the Dubai marathon should be considered - didn't that race come out of nowhere and get dozens of Ethiopians those couple of years who in the past might have not raced a marathon at all, or done a slower race in Europe? That could skew the data.
but the marathon is such a strange race - a slow year at Berlin or London changes the stats, as does an Olympic year.
http://aimsworldrunning.org/statistics/2008Statistics.htm#FullMen
There's no other course in the world like Dubai. There are only four turns in the entire course.
Jeff Wigand wrote:
There's no other course in the world like Dubai. There are only four turns in the entire course.
And it is terribly boring as a result.
Tons of ways to look at the data. Since 2000, numbers of sub 2:07 performances:2014- 372013- 342012- 51(!)2011- 292010- 242009- 252008- 162007- 62006- 92005- 02004- 72003- 102002- 122001- 12000- 2Or, we could look at the world record progression.What could explain the jump from 2000-2007 (47 performances total) to 2008-2014 (217 performances)? Certainly coincides with the rise of CERA...:
Under the trade name Mircera, Roche Pharmaceuticals received approval from the U.S. FDA in January 2008 to market a continuous erythropoiesis receptor activator [CERA]
...
Methoxy polyethylene glycol-epoetin beta previously was approved by the European Commission in August 2007, and was made available in Europe at the start of 2008.
In terms of its structure, Mircera is similar to the previous synthetic EPO drugs, except that it is connected to a chemical called polyethylene glycol (PEG), which makes it last longer in the body. According to Roche, the product has the longest half-life of all FDA-approved erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs): up to 6 times longer than darbepoetin alfa and up to 20 times longer than epoetin. CERAs thus promise both lower dosing—significant owing to the high inherent cost of manufacturing recombinant protein drugs—and less frequent injections for patients. ESAs are administered via subcutaneous injections, often in doctor's offices for patients who lack the skill or dexterity to inject themselves, so the once- or twice-monthly dosing regimen for CERAs promises fewer costly, inconvenient office visits for patients requiring constant hemoglobin level maintenance for chronic kidney disease.
What is your explanation for the jump in performances?
clerk wrote:
What is your explanation for the jump in performances?
That's part of my point. I don't know. You are assuming it is drugs. But you only have a little evidence. More evidence all the time, but still small amounts of the stuff.
I am agnostic. Could be drugs, could be a bigger talent pool, could be younger athletes going to the marathon instead of the track, could be the demise of world XC, could be more money at the marathon, could be better coaching and nutrition in E Africa, could be a new mindset among athletes, could be a mixture of things.
I mean - you train your tushie off and run 13:00...you get probably $500 from a diamond league race. MIght as well go for the big money at a marathon and make tens of thousands. That has to be pulling in the talent - running track is sort of stupid, economically at all but the highest level.
but in the end, I just don't see the evidence that I need to jump to the conclusion you have made.
This turmoil does not augur well for Kenyan athletics this summer, so it is another excellent chance for American runners (like 2013, with a spate of high profile runners injured or 'injured') to get unexpected medals at world's and high placings in the Diamond League.
agip wrote:
clerk wrote:What is your explanation for the jump in performances?
That's part of my point. I don't know. You are assuming it is drugs. But you only have a little evidence. More evidence all the time, but still small amounts of the stuff.
I am agnostic. Could be drugs, could be a bigger talent pool, could be younger athletes going to the marathon instead of the track, could be the demise of world XC, could be more money at the marathon, could be better coaching and nutrition in E Africa, could be a new mindset among athletes, could be a mixture of things.
I mean - you train your tushie off and run 13:00...you get probably $500 from a diamond league race. MIght as well go for the big money at a marathon and make tens of thousands. That has to be pulling in the talent - running track is sort of stupid, economically at all but the highest level.
but in the end, I just don't see the evidence that I need to jump to the conclusion you have made.
All valid points, but the biggest problem as I see it is that we proceed as if this PED thing is some mystery that we'll eventually get to the bottom of - as if we'll keep investigating until we figure out who was clean and who wasn't. But the truth is, for the most part, we'll probably never know. A few people will surely get caught, and then we can be reasonably sure that they were dirty at least. But for the most part, PED users will continue to get away with it. Look at El G - he is almost untouchable now that he has been retired for a decade. That's the norm. Most PED users won't get caught because, if nothing else, there just aren't enough resources to constantly monitor and test all the athletes out there sufficiently. We just have to face it: we will never really know which (if any) records and other outstanding performances are clean. There will probably never be another world record set in track and field that isn't suspicious.
The most sensible approach, it seems to me, is to look at the whole sports game from a detached viewpoint. We like to identify with individual athletes who we think are extra tough or courageous or cool, and for whatever reason we think they wouldn't dope. Maybe so. But overall, I think it's safe to say that as a group, athletes will cheat as much as they can get away with, as long as there is enough incentive to justify it. For example, if there are clean runners winning tens of thousands by running 2:08 marathons, it just makes sense from a human nature perspective that other athletes will see that, decide they want a piece of that action, and dope to make sure they run faster than 2:08. The incentive is there, and you can't expect the entire population of thousands and thousands of talented endurance athletes to all play by the rules. It's just human nature - on a large-scale, statistical basis, you can expect the honest athletes to be surpassed by cheats if there is a reward for doing so, and if the cheating can be disguised. The risk/reward ratio is a pretty good one, especially for athletes from poor countries with few other options (although I still think there are plenty of cheaters from the wealthy countries; after all, if some random dentist will hatch elaborate plots to cheat at small-time marathons, there is obviously some deep tendency in humans to cheat).
Jeff Wigand wrote:
hopla wrote:Blood tests must be stored cold and analyzed within 24 hours at a WADA accredited lab.
Which is why, until that new lab in Eldoret is up and running, East Africans in the pool are targeted for blood testing as soon as they go somewhere where it's feasible.
And the agents, coaches, doctors, etc know where that feasible somewhere else is, and when the athlete will be there, and do their best to insure their athletes correct PED protocols are in place. Sometimes they don't quite get it right.
Jeff Wigand wrote:
hopla wrote:Blood tests must be stored cold and analyzed within 24 hours at a WADA accredited lab.
Which is why, until that new lab in Eldoret is up and running, East Africans in the pool are targeted for blood testing as soon as they go somewhere where it's feasible.
On the blood sampling form the athlete has to fill out when a blood sample is collected for the bio passport, one of the questions is:
Has the athlete resided or trained at altitude (>1000m) during the last two weeks?
http://www.iaaf.org/download/download?filename=12abe3af-5f3c-48b4-b936-d37f08806f8c.pdf&urlslug=Blood%20Sampling%20FormStaying at altitude affects your blood values for a time afterwards. (And that is why various endurance sports athletes since long has had altitude camps right before big championships, they want raised haemoglobin values.) The unpredictable effect of the altitude stay makes results of blood samples collected right after an altitude stay too uncertain for the bio passport system, and they are not taken into account.
Blood testing someonefor the bio passport system right after they arrive from Eldoret is an utter waste of resources.