Galen Rupp is running 1500 in Brussels! How low can he go?

People come to LetsRun.com because we understand running way better than the average person.

Manzano and Centro aren't that good? They are SILVER MEDALLISTS IN THE 1500. Are you on drugs?

Rupp never tried to break 4:00 in HS? They set up a mile for him on the Nike campus.

The fact that you and m any others simply don't understand running or stats is confirmed by the following post:

Clearly people don't realize how fast 3:29.99 is. To run 3:29.99 per lap, you have to average 55 per lap. Average it.

So how can he run 3:29 if a 55 is too fast to go out.

56.00 per lap is 3:30.00 exactly.

I'm going to write weldon and see if we can offer a $3330 guarantee that Rupp doesn't break 3:30.00.

Am i going to watch? Hell yes. Farah did run 3:28 and Rupp is close to him at Worlds.

But the odds of this being a super fast race aren't good either. There is $40,000 on the line for the winner. If you think kiprop is going to make the race by pushing throughout only to get beat at the end and lose 40k, then you are foolish.

Hopefully we'll have the $3,330 guarantee up tomorrow.

lslsl wrote:

Exactly where do you think Rupp's maximum realization in the 5k is? I don't really see why people think he should run much faster than his current PR. He's still not even better than Craig Mottram yet as far as I can tell.

From

26:44 2nd American 10k record (outdoor track 10k)

7:30 3,000m (indoor track 3k)

8:07 two mile (indoor track two mile)--just about the same as Matt Tegenkamp's [still standing?] American outdoor 2-mile (set at the Prefontaine Classic, which Mottram won against Tariku Bekele, think it was spring 07?)

3:50 one mile (indoor mile)

It's astonishing when 5k/10k greats can go sub 3:33 1500m. Farah ran so fast that I'm not the only mind that went back to the stat books and rethought about the all time greats.

But that's 1500m.

I used the term "maximum realization" because the distances sandwiching 5k--3k and 10k--Rupp has recorded phenomenal times at. It's a general gist, not some exhaustively pondered forecast from looking at the stats and careers of hundreds of athletes, or coming up with some calculator and manipulating variables.

Craig Mottram is an interesting but also misleading comparison. Interesting, of course because he is a comparable top caucasian distance athlete. But Craig Mottram's career has featured some astounding heights (like that Pre classic 2-mile), very solid middle distance chops (see

), etc.

Solinsky ran more than once in Mottram's PR range. His career was cut short, of course but one could reasonable have expected (if the career continued) that he would make more improvement (though how much is hard to say).

During the "Mo Farah" age, as we might call it, in many of the 5k races Rupp has been in, there have continually been a rotating cast of STUD competitors. Sometimes they falter, sometimes they put up a battle. I think there's enough in there in Rupp's performances--enough small victories and chipping away--to give him some encouragement, yet at the same time have a distinct feeling there is something profoundly more this man could do at 5k:

when the stars align, low 12:50 or sub 12:50;

when the stars align for championship races, a spot on the podium.

Scuse me, I meant to say about Mottram, that it's misleading because juxtaposed with astounding heights have been mediocre moments when he was easily bested and trounced by athletes who in their careers or at least at the time couldn't come close to Mottram at his very best.

rojo wrote:

Rupp #1 Fan wrote:

This was my prediction as well. I think he just cracks 3:30. 3:29.9

Are you crazy? YOu think he can run 3:29?

So he's as good at 1500 as Willis? And better than Centro, Leo, etc? NO WAY.

You also apparently think a guy who couldn't break 4 until his junior or senior year in college is now better at 1500 than 5000? Please explain that one to me.

29 men in history have broken 3:30. The 29th men in history at 5000 has run 12:52. WHY WOULD A 10 SPECIALIST LIKE RUPP BE BETTER AT 1500 5000?

The only reason why I think anyone would predict Rupp would run 3:29 is simply the fact that Farah's 3:28 makes zero logical sense as well and Rupp trains with him.

Nothing makes sense to you because all you do is look at times. You think these guys are always running time trials. What does it mean to you when Rupp beats or races neck to neck with sub 12:55 guys while running a 5000 in low 13s. Does it mean he can probably run sub-12:55 himself or that since he ran 13:07, he's in 13:07 shape. Farah's only time trial type race on the track in the past 2 years has been the 3:28, so it doesn't make sense to you because he typically doesn't need to run too fast to win all his 5000s and 10,000s.

Anyone here realize that a page or two back, some idiot who quoted ommitted some parts and made it look like what someone else wrote was written by Rojo, which it wasn't. hahaha

Ill state it again , who will have the best range from 1500 to 10k , this is what really will come out of his 1500 effort. He is not a 1500 guy , never will be , its a novelty pride end of the season fun thing to do.

What makes his effort interesting for best range from 10k ( his record time takes him to a new level ) to 1500.

What are Gebs 1500 & 10k marks , Bekele ? what we start to talk about now who are truly the best distance runners of all time , not some nonsense of how fast his race will be, look at the big picture please.

rojo wrote:

And Rupp's better suited for a mile than 1500.

Oh yeah, that 109.34m really make a difference... Talk about clutching at straws.

800 Coach wrote:

Nothing makes sense to you because all you do is look at times. You think these guys are always running time trials. What does it mean to you when Rupp beats or races neck to neck with sub 12:55 guys while running a 5000 in low 13s. Does it mean he can probably run sub-12:55 himself or that since he ran 13:07, he's in 13:07 shape. Farah's only time trial type race on the track in the past 2 years has been the 3:28, so it doesn't make sense to you because he typically doesn't need to run too fast to win all his 5000s and 10,000s.

I think Rojo looks at well more than times.

Hassan Mead ran 13:01 so no doubt Rupp should be able to run much faster. However a 13:01 at Stanford is not a 13:01 on the circuit. It's perfect time trial conditions.

Rupp is very good at time trial type races. European 5000s are not time trial type races.

Rupp has had chances to run much faster In Europe the last few years and come up short in fast races.

Monaco last year was a 12:51 race, Rupp ran 13:05.

Stockholm this year 12:54, Rupp 13:05.

Monaco 2012 12:58, Rupp 13:09.

No doubt Rupp can run faster than he has for 5000, but he hasn't. However, now in a competitive 1500 which no doubt isn't his best event, we're supposed to think he's going to break 3:30? That doesn't make sense. A 10k runner should be better at the 5000 relative to the 1500.

Edwin Soi and Muktar Edris are both guys who have beaten Rupp in 5000s this year and if they were running the 1500 tomorrow no one would expect them to run sub 3:30. No one.

Farah's 3:28.81 was amazing because it's something that no one has ever done before. A 30 year old dropping 5 seconds off his PB to run that fast. It changed what people thought was possible, but there still is no reason to think Galen should be a 3:46 guy tomorrow.

rojo wrote:

Rupp #1 Fan wrote:

This was my prediction as well. I think he just cracks 3:30. 3:29.9

Are you crazy? YOu think he can run 3:29?

So he's as good at 1500 as Willis? And better than Centro, Leo, etc? NO WAY.

You also apparently think a guy who couldn't break 4 until his junior or senior year in college is now better at 1500 than 5000? Please explain that one to me.

29 men in history have broken 3:30. The 29th men in history at 5000 has run 12:52. WHY WOULD A 10 SPECIALIST LIKE RUPP BE BETTER AT 1500 5000?

The only reason why I think anyone would predict Rupp would run 3:29 is simply the fact that Farah's 3:28 makes zero logical sense as well and Rupp trains with him.

Jesus, calm down Rojo.

longjack wrote:

he should do well and finish mid pack so if it's fast you are talking 333 or 332. which is equivalent to a 335 in a regular race without a ton of fast guys to draft off.

Stop it with these equivalents!

4 quarts is equivalent to a gallon

12 inches is a foot

3:32 is 3:32 and 3:35 is 3:35

Agreed. Rupp clearly prefers running indoors and is better suited to it. The idea that modern banked tracks are slower than outdoor ones is nonsense.

Rupp is possibly capable of 3:32/3:33 at his best, and I don't think he's at his best at the minute. I see 3:34 tomorrow with decent pace, won in a time around 3:31.

I have a feeling you would have written just as lengthy a response detailing why Mo Farah could never go under 3:30 prior to him doing it. Keep in mind that prior to his 3:28, his PB was barely better than his training mate Rupp.

Why are you comparing Centro to Rupp? There is no comparison and that is no disrespect to Centro. That fact that you even do that hammers home that you still don't understand that Rupp is the runner he is.

Over the years I've read countless reason why Rupp wouldn't do this or that, many of them written by you or Wejo. This past winter you guys were about to announce Ryan Hill as the new Rupp. I think you guys get tunnel vision, too micro focused on one or two factors, and quite honestly are always searching for reasons Rupp can't or won't do something. You lose your PERSPECTIVE!

I'm fully aware of how difficult running under 3:30 is. How few people have done it. But how many people ran 4:01 and 13:37 in high school in the US? How many could have? How many people can run a 4:01 by themselves after an 8:07 two mile and mile repeats? Talk all you want about Rupps time trialing ability, but how many NCAA titles does he have? He has a silver medal and finished top 3 in 4 diamond league 5000's now, perhaps I am forgetting some. If the race is going 3:27 or 3:28 you don't have to win it or even be 2nd to run 3:29.9. In a great race you can get your butt kicked and come in 3rd or 4th.

Here are some statistics to ponder:

When Rupp helped Oregon set the collegiate 4 x mile relay record he ran the fastest split. Faster then Centro, faster than Wheating, despite training for the 5000 and 10000 and finishing 8th at the world championships in the 10000 that year.

After blasting Chelanga in the indoor 5000, he came back 90 minutes later to run 3:57 on the anchor of the DMR, blasting buy Ulrey to win.

Again, none of this guarantees he goes sub 3:30 tomorrow. What it means is that I would bet anything that prior to any of the feats listed above, you guys would have written a piece about how and why he would not be able to do them. There is a difference between difficult, unlikely and not possible. You say not possible, I lean somewhere between difficult and unlikely, but still possible.

My prediction is that Rupp is no more than 3 seconds off the winner, be it a 3:27 win or 3:30 win. The closer the winning time is to 3:30 (as apposed to 3:27), the closer Rupp is to the winner. And I will not be shocked at all if he runs in the 3:29.5 to 3:30.5 range. Assuming a brisk pace, I think he'll sit near the back and let the anxious guys chomp at the bit and begin to die off with the exception of the true 1500 studs. He'll start to move by some and get momentum going and he'll have as good a last lap as any in the race, save maybe two others. He'll finish in the top 3rd, perhaps the top quarter of the field and have a big PB. And yes, he'll run a bit longer than 1500m to do it because he'll have to running that way.

3:36 and that is pretty good for a 10k guy

wejo wrote:

Edwin Soi and Muktar Edris are both guys who have beaten Rupp in 5000s this year and if they were running the 1500 tomorrow no one would expect them to run sub 3:30. No one.

I'd like to point out that Rupp did beat Edwin Soi and Muktar Edris in 5000s this year as well as lost to them.

Rupp also beat Ndiku and Longosiwa in 5000s this year.

As far as this upcoming 1500m race in Brussels, I don't think it will be very fast.

Kiprop, Kiplagat and Souleiman are within a few points of winning the season Diamond League. They'll be looking around trying to out-kick each other for the win.

The rabbits may get ignored.

I don't think Rupp will get the setup that Farah got in Monaco last year.

Rupp and Farah were training like 1500m runners last year, only with a huge base, which is why Farah was killing on the last lap of 5000 and 10000s, and why he could run 3:28.81. I do not think Rupp can currently go under 3:30, but I do think that he had a shot at it in his best shape in the summer of 2012 or the winter of 2013 and 2014. To this point, his speed has not quite been there, but he definitely made quite a bit of progress last race.

rojo wrote:

People come to LetsRun.com because we understand running way better than the average person.

Clearly people don\'t realize how fast 3:29.99 is. To run 3:29.99 per lap, you have to average 55 per lap. Average it.

I\'m going to write weldon and see if we can offer a $3330 guarantee that Rupp doesn\'t break 3:30.00.

Well, rojo is as bad at grade school arithmetic as he is at every other subject. 55 seconds a lap is 3:26.25, not 3:29.99.

To run 3:29.99 per lap, you have to average 3:29.99 per lap, not 55.

People come to LetsRun.com because they realize that you understand most things way worse than the average kindergartner and find it humorous. Guys, dubyaing your ways through life is no way to go.

Also, and more seriously, to whom are you offering the $3,300?

rojo wrote:

I 100% stand by what I wrote. There is ZERO reason to think he'll break 3:30 other than the fact he trains with Farah.

Let me take a few of these counter points 1 by 1.

Perspectivation wrote:

2) he was 2nd in a loaded PAC 10 1500 on a 1500, 5k, 10k triple with the 1500 final being last. He split up centro and wheating and beat several sub 3:40 (specialist) guys like Heath.

Great so he can run with some top US collegians at 1500. What does that have to do with running 3:29 as people are speculating about?

He ran with some good guys at 1500. That doesn't make him or them 329 guys.

He didn't just run with some good guys in college, he ran with the fastest current 1500 guys (minus manzano) and still races 1500 at their level, and also can beat Manzano at the distance.

1 Leer, Will Nike 3:36.67

2 Rupp, Galen Nike 3:36.98

3 Wheating, Andrew Nike 3:37.03

4 Manzano, Leo Austin TC 3:37.04

5 Lomong, Lopez Nike 3:37.08

6 Centrowitz, Matthew Nike 3:37.27

7 Heath, Garrett Saucony 3:37.47

8 Boylan-Pett, Liam Njnytc 3:38.26

9 Brannen, Nathan Saucony 3:38.41

10 McNamara, Jordan Nike 3:39.25

11 Batty, Miles Asics 3:41.91

Here Rupp beat:

Wheating (1:44 - 3:30)

Manzano (1:44 - 3:30)

Lomong (1:45 - 3:32)

Centro (1:45 - 3:31)

Heath (1:47 - 3:34)

The difference between the PB's of the top guys and Rupp's 3:34 PB is that they all ran 1500's in the Euro Diamond League, while Rupp has only raced it at Oxy the past few years.

At this point in the season, I figure Rupp is running a 1500 going all or nothing. I'm expecting a fast time or a DNF. I would be disappointed if Rupp didn't try to get to the front in what may turn into a championship style tactical race.

Rojo's rants seem to ignore Farah's 3:28 while also using it as an example. A faster time doesn't necessarily make one a better 1500m runner. That being said, I think a low 33x would be good enough for a "fast" time for the slower Rupp.So, the way I see it:

333=good

332=great

331=eye popping

330 or under=$3330 for each of us, or would it be shared among the forum?

Rudiger wrote:

330 or under=$3330 for each of us, or would it be shared among the forum?

$3,300 for each of us. That trust fund can easily afford it.