Yeah, Pre in my opinion had achieved most of his 5k potential by 1972. By '74 he was getting beat by other Americans and ex-Oregon teammates who had improved post-college while he had not. Being stubborn he probably would have stayed in the 5k and got 5th or 6th, then retired.
Les wrote:
By '74 he was getting beat by other Americans and ex-Oregon teammates who had improved post-college while he had not.
Are you sure about that? Do you have any examples?
As for Montreal, Pre likely would have qualified for the US team in both the 5,000 and the 10,000. A likely scenario is that he gets a bronze medal in the 10,000 (just ahead of Foster) and then 5th or 6th in the 5,000 (either ahead of or behind Foster, who was 5th and maybe no longer as sick as in the 10k).
his 27'43 in '74 was apparently solo on a windy day
you have to be talking at worst 27'30 if paced to 5k on a windless day in oslo/zurich/etc
i bet he still had that 3'54 speed of '73 - he was only 22y
the prelim line of fit i have for him in '74 is
~ 52.0 / 1'50.0 ->
3'36.5
3'53.5
7'35.5
13'06.7 !!!
27'28.3
i have little doubt he wouda been at least this good in '76
quite simply, he couda run away from the field in both 5 & 10k for double gold
i consider him a "lost" double gold medallist & multiple wr holder
Les wrote:
good job wrote:Decent point, but Bowerman spent a fair amount of time with Lydiard over the years, and Dellinger used Bowerman's system.
Bowerman might have spent time with Lydiard, but he had his own system. Basically, date pace/goal pace year round. The paces just got faster. There was no phase where the runner just worked on developing an aerobic base which is the cornerstone of Lydiard. Bowerman trained all systems year round, but Lydiard would only add speed nearing the competitive season.
Did you run for Oregon? Neither did I.
From the schedules I've seen they'd do some fartlek during off season, but not necessarily race pace.
ventolin^3 wrote:
quite simply, he couda run away from the field in both 5 & 10k for double gold
i consider him a "lost" double gold medallist & multiple wr holder
Coming from you, this is beyond belief. It's absurd - if not actually laughable - to believe he would have won double gold in '76. I don't think he would have gotten a medal in either the 5 or 10.
Toward the end of "Bowerman and the Men of Oregon" Kenny Moore mentions that for all the success Bowerman had coaching distance runners not much of that success translated to Olympic medals. He speculated that perhaps it was because Bowerman did not have his distance guys doing enough miles.
you haven't a clue
this is '74
he had 3'54 speed from year before which only dixon definitely bettered & perhaps not quax at the time
he had well below 27'43 ability that year which only viren & emiel had shown
he was the only one who combined 3'54/27'43 ability in '74 which meant he shouda destroyed the 5k wr that year given right race
i'd have expected some improvement in all his races by '76 as only 23y ole in '74
An interesting aside about Foster -- I think he ran about 13:20 in his 5000 heat, an Olympic record. Sort of lost his head there, and he talked about it to that effect.
Not sure, but were the medalists from the other heat? Maybe the fast qualifying heat had an effect of other runners beside Foster?
As for the 10,000, I've watched the video several times. I'd upgrade my earlier post that Pre was good for a silver or bronze in the 10K at Montreal, I think he'd have grabbed the silver ahead of Lopes, as great as Lopes was.
Did they run 10,000 heats in Montreal, as they did in Munich?
NO one was going to beat Viren.
ventolin^3 wrote:
you haven't a clue
this is '74
he had 3'54 speed from year before which only dixon definitely bettered & perhaps not quax at the time
he had well below 27'43 ability that year which only viren & emiel had shown
he was the only one who combined 3'54/27'43 ability in '74 which meant he shouda destroyed the 5k wr that year given right race
i'd have expected some improvement in all his races by '76 as only 23y ole in '74
From 1972 to 1974, Pre lowered his 5k time by only two seconds. So why do you think he would have lowered it by 10 seconds from 1974 to 1976? I think Pre would have improved over that time, but only marginally at that distance.
I'm pretty sure Hildenbrand was faster than Pre at the 1500/mile. I looked for his PR today online, but couldn't find it. I seem to recall that he did 3:34 or 3:35 in 1976. (He was also almost two years younger than Pre.)
Quax did 3:34 in 1970, when he was only 22. I'm assuming he was still capable of doing that in 1976, especially since he set the WR in the 5,000 the following year.
Hope this helps wrote:
Prefontaine was already a mature runner by 1974. Just look at his yearly progress in lowering his PR's for the 5,000:
1972: 13:23
1973: 13:22
1974: 13:21
One thing your're missing is Pre's frame of mind post-Munich. That '72 final broke his spirit for a long time, and it wasn't until the spring of '74 that he started to get his old enthusiasm back. A 10 second improvement in his 5k pr wasn't out of the question in an Olympic year.
ventolin^3 wrote:
you haven't a clue
this is '74
he had 3'54 speed from year before which only dixon definitely bettered & perhaps not quax at the time
he had well below 27'43 ability that year which only viren & emiel had shown
he was the only one who combined 3'54/27'43 ability in '74 which meant he shouda destroyed the 5k wr that year given right race
i'd have expected some improvement in all his races by '76 as only 23y ole in '74
Pre wasn't even the #1 ranked 10,000 meter runner in 1974.
27:43 solo was impressive tho.
Hope this helps wrote:From 1972 to 1974, Pre lowered his 5k time by only two seconds. So why do you think he would have lowered it by 10 seconds from 1974 to 1976? I think Pre would have improved over that time, but only marginally at that distance
i doubt he had 3'54 in '72
I'm pretty sure Hildenbrand was faster than Pre at the 1500/mile
i doubt it
I looked for his PR today online, but couldn't find it. I seem to recall that he did 3:34 or 3:35 in 1976. (He was also almost two years younger than Pre.)
there's no record of a pb better than 3'38
Quax did 3:34 in 1970, when he was only 22. I'm assuming he was still capable of doing that in 1976, especially since he set the WR in the 5,000 the following year.
no
wadoux ran 3'34.0 in '70
quax's pbs were both set in '76 - 3'36.7/3'56.2
quax's "speed" pbs were not any better than pre - better 1500/slower mile
this myth of quax having a legendary kick is nonsense - he had a 3'36pb - his kick wouda not expected to have been any better than most any other elite apart from lopes & maybe foster
certainly nothing pre needed to frighten himself about - he was capable of matching it
codger wrote:Pre wasn't even the #1 ranked 10,000 meter runner in 1974.
27:43 solo was impressive tho.
but he was fastest by 3s
Hope this helps wrote:Quax did 3:34 in 1970, when he was only 22. I'm assuming he was still capable of doing that in 1976, especially since he set the WR in the 5,000 the following year.
quax probably did have faster 400 speed than pre but their mile ability was likely similar due to pre having much better 10k endurance to help out
quax ran a 27'41 in '77
i get his line of fit for '76/'77 as ~
51.5 / 1'49.4 ->
3'36.1
3'53.1
7'36.1
13'09.5
27'39.1
i still reckon pre had potentially 3s better 5k ability in '74 than quax who ran 13'13.1 in '76 & 13'12.9wr in '77
that being said, i also get viren as capable of 13'06 in '72 but maybe only 13'08 in '76
viren was a better 5k/10k guy in '72 v '76
Pre loses indoor two mile to Dick Buerkle, who would go on to win the 1976 Olympic Trials. It was a cover story in Track & Field News at the time.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3882972
Pre loses to former Oregon teammate Knut Kvalheim. "Last year he set three American records in Europe, all in losing races to Knut Kvalheim and Rod Dixon."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1089925/2/index.htm
Confidence factor wrote:
Les wrote:Bowerman might have spent time with Lydiard, but he had his own system. Basically, date pace/goal pace year round. The paces just got faster. There was no phase where the runner just worked on developing an aerobic base which is the cornerstone of Lydiard. Bowerman trained all systems year round, but Lydiard would only add speed nearing the competitive season.
Did you run for Oregon? Neither did I.
From the schedules I've seen they'd do some fartlek during off season, but not necessarily race pace.
Not necessary to have run for Oregon since Pre's training has been on Let's Run. Date pace, goal pace. Viren would never have done this kind of training off season.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3557839Speaking of Dick Buerkle, did you ever see the poem he wrote for Pre upon learning about his death? I understand that it was published in newspapers across the country. Here's a link;
You can find a dozen runners that have plateaued for a couple of years and then drop 10secs. For example lets look at Chris Derrick13:3013:3213:301 year later 13:12 indoors2 years later 13:09 outdoorsProgressions look good in theory but in reality injuries and opportunities (i.e. how many 13:15 races was pre in in 1973 or 74?) Back then there were also not as many time trials to set PRs. It was a different time period.If you look how that race played out, it wasn't that different than Munich with a long drive towards home with the last 1500 m being run at 4 min pace. Pre was competive in that race and likely would have been in 76. On a good day he challenges Viren for the gold. On a bad day he is off the back in 10th. And on the ones in between he is finishing 2nd to 7th or so.
Running on Empathy wrote:
Hope this helps wrote:Prefontaine was already a mature runner by 1974. Just look at his yearly progress in lowering his PR's for the 5,000:
1972: 13:23
1973: 13:22
1974: 13:21
One thing your're missing is Pre's frame of mind post-Munich. That '72 final broke his spirit for a long time, and it wasn't until the spring of '74 that he started to get his old enthusiasm back. A 10 second improvement in his 5k pr wasn't out of the question in an Olympic year.
Yeah, Pre in my opinion had achieved most of his 5k potential by 1972. By '74 he was getting beat by other Americans and ex-Oregon teammates who had improved post-college while he had not. Being stubborn he probably would have stayed in the 5k and got 5th or 6th, then retired.
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I'm not so sure about that, given that he was doing marathon type training with Frank Shorter at altitude in Taos, New Mexico in 1975. It suggests that he might have been thinking 10K in his future. His racing mentality seemed ideal for the longer distance.
To say how Pre would have done in '76 you, can't look at how he did as a 21 yo college junior. You have to speculate how much better he could have gotten in the lead up to the Olympics. Pre ran well in '73 and in '74 before he died, but he was't running any better than he did in '72. In 73/74 Pre was working full time, he wasn't always training consistently, parting a bit. It was common knowledge that in 73, Pre's focus was the next level and the Olympcis, beating up on NCAA competiton didn't have the same excitment. In 74, he still wasn't training consistently, he didn't have a coach and hadn't quite figured out how to run when he did not have a system that was built around him. He was kind of lost and often trained with whoever invited him to train, gave him a place to sleep and feed him.
Just before he died, he was starting to get back to serious training and getting ready for the 76 Olympics. He would have been better in 76, but the 5000 had progressed as well; Verin, Marty and the New Zealanders had made the 5K a glamour event. No body was going to beat Verin, he was too strong, but I am not sure Pre would'nt have medaled. Btw, Verin didn't have a great traditional kick, but he would start pushing slightly from 2 laps out and continue to increase the pace and by the time you can off the final turn everybody else was going backwards, which made him look like a speed deamon. Btw, the Finn endurance skiers were using blood doping, I think the Finns invented it and published papers about it. There is almost no way Verin wasn't doping if it was helping the skiers. In fact, I think blood doping was considerd unfair, but it wasn't illegal in 1972.