Kastor is running to win

Salt Lake City is home wrote:

I feel sorry for Deena. This is an obvious attempt to stay in the spotlight while others have passed her by,

Deena knows what it takes to be competitive not just at the trials, but at the next level. Her comments are those of a competitor, and I love it.

Agreed, Deena is going to throw down. I love the new talent coming up, but an old workhorse with the experience that Deena has is at a considerable advantage over the marathon distance. The field is going to be racing for the third spot and that includes Desi and Kara. The women's race is going to be a lot more exciting than the men's.

InWyo wrote:

Salt Lake City is home wrote:

I feel sorry for Deena. This is an obvious attempt to stay in the spotlight while others have passed her by,

I don't know. I didn't think Deena would break through to the top 3, but she's got enough experience to know what she's capable of right now, and she has by far the fastest PR in the field. You also have to take into account that she's training with Hastings and Rines, and if she's saying she's in it to win, she has to know she's head and shoulders above those two. If she had a resurgence, it makes these trials really interesting. I have no reason to root against her. She's a class act and has always represented the USA very well.

I agree with all of that, but keep in mind she's pretty vigorously overstated her expectations in recent years, like saying she was in AR shape before she ran 2:36 at London.

One common experience with age is race-day performance being more out of line with your perceived fitness than was the case back in the day.

She'll run 2:45 and call that a win.

Amy Hastings will win the Trials in a gut-wrenching battle over Desi. Mark my words gents. This little girl was meant to fly and has the right mentors around her.

The Desi bandwagon is overflowing.

I looked at her results. She had a good race at wind aided Boston. What else about her career has people thinking she is "can't miss?"

She has run 6 marathons and has NEVER regressed. A PB 100% of the time.

She has also run PB's on the track for both 5k and 10k this year.

She turned down a trip to WC in the 5k because she said that 15:08 sucks and doesn't deserve to go. Even though it is the Olympic A standard.

She interviews like a winner. I am shocked when I hear her talk about Boston as a disappointment. Most Americans would be doing back flips if they finished 2nd at Boston.

The thing about Deena Kastor, is that she is the one runner that can afford to run 5 minutes off her best and still win.

Unfortunately I think she might be a little more than 5 minutes off 2:19 fitness, but perhaps still good enough to make the team.

About the others...

In my mind, Kara Goucher ran her best marathon on her debut when she ran 2:25 at NYC in 2008. Given the nature of that course, that probably translates to 2:24 in a fast flat marathon. However, given recent setbacks, I doubt that Kara is going to be at her best, perhaps 2-3 minutes off that pace.

Flanagan has only run a single marathon, second at NYC 2010 in a race that had a slow first 20 miles and a fast finish. If we try to imagine where she would have been if she ran NYC in 2011, she might not have been in the first three places, but I really can't imagine her being much behind Ana Dulce Felix and Kim Smith who ran 2:25:xx - I'm sure Flanagan can also run 2:24 on a fast flat course if she's having a good day and unlike Kara, she seems to be heading into the trails in top fitness.

Desi Davila ran 2:26 in Chicago and 2:22 in Boston, but the wind was obviously a factor as it was for Caroline Kilel who went to NYC and ran 2:25 high. I'm guessing 2:24 on a fast flat course might be realistic.

So if Flanagan and Davila are having a good day, they should be safely on the team, but either Kastor or Goucher are going to miss out.

Someone else could surprise and make the team ,especially if both Kastor and Goucher have a really bad day.

laughing at the doubters wrote:

She has run 6 marathons and has NEVER regressed. A PB 100% of the time.

She has also run PB's on the track for both 5k and 10k this year.

She turned down a trip to WC in the 5k because she said that 15:08 sucks and doesn't deserve to go. Even though it is the Olympic A standard.

She interviews like a winner. I am shocked when I hear her talk about Boston as a disappointment. Most Americans would be doing back flips if they finished 2nd at Boston.

PBs don't go on forever.

She was right about the 15:08 5k.

Who cares about how she "interviews." In fact, you give credit to Desiree about being disappointed in Boston, but bash the fastest American marathoner because she things she can win the traditionally slow trials race (which she has won before)?

And as some other people have mentioned already, Irina Mikitenko and Radcliffe both ran pretty good times recently, at the same age as Kastor, and after a period of bad or no results.

Davila's been on an upward trend throughout her entire career, and her new 5k PR will help,

Davila and Flanagan are easy picks, although it's always possible one will have a bad day or a pesky injury. But they're solid bets. As to third...it's going to a long time between Kastor's last race and the trials, and we can only guess as to how much she'll progress in-between.

desiree's bad days are not off enough to not make the team...her bad day would be about 2.25.xx

I'm thinking that her half marathon in Lisbon, which was 1:11:27, was a bad day for Desi and 1:11:27 translates to about 2:30.

Oh Please wrote:

The Desi bandwagon is overflowing.

I looked at her results. She had a good race at wind aided Boston. What else about her career has people thinking she is "can't miss?"

The wind might have aided her time but not her race.

joho wrote:

Oh Please wrote:

The Desi bandwagon is overflowing.

I looked at her results. She had a good race at wind aided Boston. What else about her career has people thinking she is "can't miss?"

The wind might have aided her time but not her race.

True, the time was aide by the wind, but it was not a course record, unlike the top men including Hall who ran under the old course record.

Her race however, was aided by Kim Smith and Florence Kiplagat dropping out... unlike the men's race with no DNF's among the leading contenders. I'm wondering where Desi would have finished if Kim Smith and Florence Kiplagat remained in the race... would Caroline Kilel and Desi have been left fighting for 3rd and 4th perhaps?

Desi will be o.k. in Houston if she is having another good day.

Probably not stating anything new.

Unless they get in over their heads, Desi and Flanagan should have no problem going one 1-2. After that, it is anybody's call. There are about 4-6 women who have a legitimate shot at that third spot. It is not just between Goucher, Hastings and MLB for that 3rd spot, Rothstein, Rhines, Burla and perhaps even Russell could be in the mix as well. The logical guess is Goucher for 3rd, but it would be stupid to count out Kaster for 3rd and perhaps even winning if she reaches the line healthy and fit. A 2:19 marathoner past her prime is probably still capable of a sub-2:25.

We just don't know enough to make a call on that 3rd spot.

laughing at the doubters wrote:

She has run 6 marathons and has NEVER regressed. A PB 100% of the time.

And she will never PR again.

TrackCoach wrote:

A 2:19 marathoner past her prime is probably still capable of a sub-2:25.

what was her 3rd fastest time?

Remember this Deena states that she is ready to win. She misses by over 5 minutes and no one ever calls her out on it. She should be ashamed of trying to steal any spotlight that obviously did not belong to her on this day.

It's too bad training with Deena messed up Amy Hasting's chance of getting top 3 at the trials.