Kastor is running to win

No, not against a fit Flanagan or Desi.

That isn't a diss on her either, simply the reality that she is probably 4-5 years past her best times and both of these runners seem to be fit and ready at the peak of their careers.

I think she could pull off a top 10, maybe even 5th or 6th, but not the W. Would love to be wrong though.

ok so deena 5th or 6th and shalane and desi top 2 who takes third?

I disagree. I think Kastor will be a factor late in the race and could steal a spot from one of the other favorites (Goucher, Davila...) The only untouchable here is Flanagan. Shalane is leaps and bounds ahead of everyone else.

She should be. She is experienced, talented and fit. Shalane is the only possible lock. The other spots are open to many athletes. Goucher, Hastings, Desi, Kastor, Magda, Other. It is going to be an awesome race.

she will put the hurt on those young girls, and kara the overrated drama queen will start crying when she doesnt make the team. deena will be like a great white shark, with a cold uncaring eye, as she devours little girlies in the final miles.

The following have gone sub-2:28:

Kastor

Boulet

Hastings

Davilla

Goucher

Flanagan could be in the best shape of them all.

Is it a stretch to think the 'Top 3' will go sub-2:27:30.

I don't think it will be long before the lead pack clicks off 5:37's in the first miles. What do you think? Will Desi wish to keep them at 5:30-5:35, like a metronome?

desi definatley will not be scared to keep it honest in the early miles. she will probably will run a race very similar to boston but instead of sprinting down the final stretch with 800 to go she will be waving to the crowd

Even though at this point in time Flanagan and Davila seem to have separated themselves from the other seven or eight contenders, nothing is a sure thing in the Marathon.

Pure talent, yes Flanagan has to be one of the top three, however she is short on Marathon experience and anything can happen on race day.

Davila seems to be another sure pick for the top three and she seems like a very intelligent runner. However if the pace is slow and it comes down to a 5k race at the end anything could happen.

Goucher certainly has the talent and the credentials but her injuries of late make her an uncertainty.

I would not count out Kastor, even with her age as she could be in the mix. Let us not forget that her 2:19 PR is in another universe for the entire rest of the field.

Hastings is running very well and could be in the hunt late in the race as well.

Lewy has been running very well in 2011 and could be a major factor.

Rhines is running with no pressure as she will also try for a spot in the 5000 and/or 10000. She could be dangerous if the pace is slow early on, and she has a wealth of experience.

Others who could be in the hunt, that have run in the 2:29-2:30 range: Moody, Grandt, and Rothstein.

Burla has run a 70 minute 1/2 and could be prepared for a big PR in the Marathon.

Russell has run a 71 minute 1/2 recently and has huge experience.

Huddle is entered, her talent at 5000/10000 has to be respected, you never know what could happen on race day.

I am leaving out other runners that should be mentioned. The bottom line is that it will be an awesome race.

Very hard to predict.

There may be a second tier runner or two that will gamble early and take the pace out from the start, this could change the dynamics of the top contenders.

I just wish these Trials were televised live. I must be dreaming though because the Networks are too busy with NASCAR, Football playoffs and Golf.

Deena sucks running 2 marathons after Beijing. That's not enough. Don't forget she ran 2:36:20. Deena has virtually no marathon experience 2 marathons since 2008.

She may be past her prime, but with a Bronze Medal in the Olympics and a 2:19:36 PR you can not say she does not have experience.

Kevin, what are you trying to say?

it is honestly hard to beleive that with the worlds technology there is no live streaming of the race anywhere

maybe sage canaday can run with a camera on his head and upload his rough footage at the aid stations

She's running to win alright: the Mommy Division. Gonna make Kara Grouchier.

If it is an honest race and the leaders go out at sub 1:13, I see Desi being able to grind it out better than anyone else.

If it is a sit and kick race, I don't see anyone being able to finish with Shalane.

I don't know what scenario has Deena winning?

maybe a scenario where its honest from the start and davila and shalane save there legs and let deena go

Up to now, I certainly haven't expected much from her - but she should have a good idea where she's at considering she's training with Hastings. It makes me wonder if she feels that she is at another level of fitness from Amy and therefore thinks she'll be a factor. I'd love to see her in the hunt for the team or the win, but man - how do you pick against Shalane and Desi right now for top two.

Well, you don't pick against the favorites. The reality is that Shalane and Desi are the top picks. But two things: 1)It is a race and not a time trial. As stated earlier, someone could take the pace out faster and change the whole dynamic of the race. In fact, I would bet on it. 2)It is a marathon. Someone could get a cramp, have tummy trouble, etc... The point is the marathons rarely play out how they "should" on paper.

You can't exactly bet against Shalane and Desi. But I doubt that the 3rd spot will be the most obvious. Deena, Serena, Amy?...

My top 5:

1. Flanagan

2. Davila

3. Kastor

4. Hastings

5. Goucher

My picks:

Hastings

Davila

3rd is a tossup.