What about? wrote:
I am a little curious as to why you think Penn State will finish ahead of Princeton. They were 17th at Regionals last year. Something like the 7th best PA team. Who do they return other than Mcnally and Dawson? Surely they do not stack up with Princeton. Princeton could very well be top 10 in the country and you don't think they will get out of the region?
As far as Maryland, they are a sleeper pick, nothing more.
I just said that because I know they made it two years ago, and assumed they may have redshirted everyone last year or something- I didn't bother to scour their roster.
I'll say it again: Princeton hasn't qualified in over a decade. Let's assume my historical logic is wrong, and they do qualify (which I would admit is possible, I just think it's unlikely). Do you really believe that a team that qualifies for the first time in a decade can go out and finish top ten? You've clearly never run at NCAAs- it just doesn't work that way. I don't care what their track PRs are.
As the above poster said, 14:00 (while a good time, and faster than I've ever run) is 'dime a dozen' at Nationals. That race is a lot deeper than I think you realize. Take for example this spring's Ncaa steeple champ (the louisville guy who beat Cabral)- he was 193rd last year at Nationals. The guy ran sub 14:00 and 8:35! I'm sure that was a bad race for him last fall- I'm just pointing out how tough that race is. Nobody fields a team that has all 7 guys run well- someone WILL have a shitty day.
Let's try this another way:
Let's give Princeton the benefit of the doubt, and assume Cabral is 20th, and Lueng makes it back to the meet as an indi. and finishes 70th (50 spots better than in '08) Let's then say the the Tigers you mention all finish 120th, which is being VERY optimistic, but it is plausible. That gives them a team score of about 380 pts (adjusted for individuals).
380 pts. last year would have been 12th place.
It's almost impossible to be top ten without two all-americans.
Mayland finishes around 10th at the regional every year. They might be a sleeper to be top 5. They have no chance at NCAAs.