2008 NCAA D1 XC Predictions

Also, if its cold and muddy like its supposed to be next Monday, I bet you that a lot of those Africans that you are picking so high are going to fall back. The more muddy it is the better the older runners who have the most strength will do. If you look back through 2004 and 2006 the real strength guys were the majority of who dominated the top 50. This year will probably be very similar. This will probably benefit Wisconsin and Colorado the most.

I was at West regionals so my response to Murylandt's predictions will be largely based off of what I saw:

Rupp.... will win. But that's almost 50/50.

Kiptoo.... top 10 for sure. Maybe a few spots lower.

Kinsella.... lower, maybe 20-30. Supposedly had food poisoning, which wouldn't surprise me as he looked weak. Will not recover in time for a top 10 finish.

I think Derrick will beat Puskedra, and will be top 20. Derrick's kick will move him up a lot those last 400 meters.

I think Puskedrea will have a great race and be top 25.

Eagon.... 20th would be studly considering the injuries.

True and Khadroui will finish higher I think.

I don't think Oregon will run Wheating.... I do think they'll have at least a few guys in the 30 range.

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I don't think Oregon will run Wheating.... I do think they'll have at least a few guys in the 30 range.

This will be an interesting decision to watch. I agree with you, but Wheating has looked very good this fall. My thought was that Vin didn't want to run Wheating in two 10k's. However, Klotz and Diego Mercado had both looked off in their only races this fall. If they had not delivered at regionals, I'd run Wheating at nationls. However, they both looked good and have a proven ability to run well over the 10k distance. I would scratch Danny Mercado for Centrowitz and leave the rest of the regional lineup intact. I'll be curious who ends up running.

irun wrote:

my picks:

1. rupp

2. chelanga

3. songok

4. mcniell

5. david

6. kinsella

7. fernandez

8. mesecho

9. vail

10. smyth

and now my post-regional predictions will be:

rupp

chelanga

mcniell

songok

smyth

mead

kiptoo-biwott

kosgei

kinsella

kipchumba

We often are reasonably close, but I think that you down-rated the OSU more than their performance would dictate - they ran a controlled Regional race. It is hard to say how good the guys in the west are, as the course was very fast and many guys ran way fast. I would put Rupp #1.The weather forecast for Madison is Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32 and no precipitation for several days before. For Terre Haute:Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.So it seems similar to last year. If it course is wet it will run 5-10% longer than the West Regional race.

Okay, here's my final predictions. It's impossible to get everything right, but it's fun to try. Oregon was looking a bit too spread out at Regions. I'm being generous in predicting that out of Centrowitz, Mercado and Klotz, one of them will score top 25. Mercado seems to be coming off an injury, and Klotz hasn't seemed too sharp. Not sure if they'll run Wheating or Suver. I'd vote for Wheating, but who knows. One of the other runners would have to really rally and get top 30 to catch OK State, who boast a spread tighter than a duck's butt, heh.

Aside from Derrick, Stanford is struggling a bit post-season. It'll be a pretty close race with Alabama, though I expect the Heaths and Riley to pick it up after an off race. Wisconsin still has a wild card with Withrow. He improved at Regions, but nothing amazing. I put him at 54th, but he could just as well pop a top 30, or struggle for top 70. Bolas is a big factor too. If he moves up to top 50, they could possibly beat Stanford and Alabama. Or they could get overtaken by Portland, Auburn and Iona.

The times are assuming the ground isn't too soggy. There's 30% chance rain so far Sun & Mon. If does indeed rain, add 15-30 seconds.

01. 28:48 Galen Rupp, Oregon, 1st PAC 10, 27:41 1st West (2, 29:23)

-- 29:02 Sam Chelanga, Liberty, 1st Big South, 29:53 1st SE

02. 29:18 German Fernandez, OK State, 1st Big 12 , 31:20 5th Midwest

03. 29:18 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott, Oregon, 5th PAC 10, 28:32 2nd West

04. 29:39 Alfred Kipchumba, Portland, 28:36 3rd West

05. 29:40 Shadrack Songok, Texas A&M, 2nd Big 12, 29:52 1st SC (7, 29:50)

06. 29:40 David Kinsella, Portland, 1st WCC, 28:43 4th West (8, 29:52)

07. 29:40 Hassan Mead, Minnesota, 1st Big 10, 31:15 1st Midwest (43, 30:37)

08. 29:40 Chris Derrick, Stanford, 3rd PAC 10, 28:44 5th West

09. 29:45 John Kosgei, OK State, 3rd Big 12, 31:19 3rd Midwest

10. 29:45 Ryan Vail, OK State, 4th Big 12, 31:20 6th Midwest (11, 29:57)

11. 29:48 David McNeill, Northern Arizona, 1st Big Sky, 29:18 1st MTN (10, 29:56)

12. 29:48 Patrick Smyth, Notre Dame, 2nd Big East, 31:06 1st GL (15, 30:05)

13. 29:56 Girma Mesecho, Auburn, 1st SEC, 30:50 3rd South

14. 29:58 Luke Puskedra, Oregon, 2nd PAC 10, 28:45 6th West

-- 30:02 Samuel Kosgei, Lamar, 1st Southland, 29:55 2nd SC

15. 30:02 John Beattie, Tulsa, 1st C-USA, 31:20 4th Midwest

16. 30:05 Felix Kibioywo, Auburn, 4th SEC , 30:45 1st South

17. 30:05 Elkanah Kibet, Auburn, 3rd SEC, 30:47 2nd South

18. 30:05 Tyson David, Alabama, 2nd SEC, 31:13 5th South

19. 30:06 David Chirchir, OK State, 13th Big 12, 31:20 7th Midwest (21, 30:19)

20. 30:10 Yosef Ghebray, California, 6th PAC 10, 28:53 7th West (67, 30:53)

21. 30:12 Andy Baker, Butler, 1st Horizon, 31:12 2nd GL (28, 30:22)

22. 30:12 Jeremy Mineau, Washington, 10th PAC 10, 29:06 8th West

23. 30:13 Matt Centrowitz, Oregon, 11th PAC 10

24. 30:13 Daniel Gonia, Cal Poly, 29:12 9th West

25. 30:15 Chris Rombough, Minnesota, 3rd Big 10, 31:18 2nd Midwest (29, 30:24)

26. 30:15 Andrew Bumbalough, Georgetown, 1st Big East, 31:36 1st MA (22, 30:19)

27. 30:15 Scott MacPherson, Arkansas, 8th SEC, 30:07 3rd SC

28. 30:20 Garrett Heath, Stanford, 4th PAC 10, 29:14 10th West

29. 30:20 Mohamed Khadraoui, Iona, 1st MAAC, 31:11 1st NE (25, 30:20)

30. 30:21 Kyle Perry, Brigham Young, 29:29 2nd MTN

-- 30:21 Mark Korir, Wyoming, 1st Mountain West, 29:33 3rd MTN (19, 30:13)

31. 30:22 Landon Peacock, Wisconsin, 2nd Big 10, 31:33 4th GL (74, 30:56)

32. 30:23 Augustus Maiyo, Alabama, 6th SEC, 31:31 8th South (18, 30:12)

33. 30:23 Mark Steeds, Georgia State, 1st CAA, 31:10 4th South

34. 30:24 Colby Lowe, OK State, 5th Big 12

-- 30:24 Paul Limpf, Eastern Wash, 29:17 11th West

35. 30:26 Tommy Betterbed, Portland, 29:20 12th West

36. 30:27 Festus Kigen, TCU, 2nd Mtn W, 30:35 4th SC

37. 30:29 Bobby Mack, North Carolina St, 30:17 2nd SE

38. 30:29 Stuart Eagon, Wisconsin, 13th Big 10, 31:33 5th GL (40, 30:36)

39. 30:30 Andrew Ledwith, Iona, 5th MAAC, 31:28 5th NE (31, 30:2Cool

-- 30:32 Japheth Ngojoy, UTEP, 2nd C-USA, 29:35 4th MTN

40. 30:32 Kenny Klotz, Oregon, 29:28 14th West (37, 30:35)

41. 30:35 Diego Mercado, Oregon, 29:29 15th West (30, 30:26)

-- 30:26 Jeremy Criscione, Florida, 7th SEC, 31:15 7th South

42. 30:36 Zach McFall, Iowa State, 31:21 8th Midwest

43. 30:37 Harbert Okuti, Iona, 2nd MAAC, 31:28 4th NE (38, 30:35)

44. 30:37 Christian Wagner, Wisconsin, 4th Big 10, 31:35 6th GL (89, 31:03)

45. 30:39 David McCarthy, Providence, 31:13 2nd NE

-- 30:40 Ben True, Dartmouth, 1st Heps Ivy, 31:26 3rd NE

46. 30:40 Hakon DeVries, Stanford, 13th PAC 10, 29:24 13th West (90, 31:04)

47. 30:41 Emmanuel Bor, Alabama, 5th SEC, 31:32 11th South (44, 30:37)

48. 30:41 Andrew Wheating, Oregon, 9th PAC 10 (or Curtis Suver 29:38 19th West)

49. 30:42 Jordan Kyle, Colorado, 29:52 6th MTN

50. 30:42 Hugo Beamish, Villanova, 31:37 2nd MA

51. 30:42 Laef Barnes, UCLA, 29:31 16th West

52. 30:43 Michael Coe, California, 29:34 17th West

53. 30:43 Stephan Shay, BYU, 3rd Mountain West, 29:57 7th MTN

54. 30:43 Matt Withrow, Wisconsin, 31:58 17th GL (17, 30:09)

55. 30:43 Jake Riley, Stanford, 7th PAC 10, 29:47 23rd West

56. 30:43 Abraham Kutingala, Alabama, 9th SEC, 31:31 10th South (54, 30:42)

57. 30:44 Guor Marial, Iowa State, 6th Big 12

58. 30:44 Mark Matusak, California, 29:37 18th West

-- 30:44 Chris Lemon, Dayton, 31:31 3rd GL

59. 30:45 Levi Miller, Georgetown, 31:38 3rd MA

60. 30:45 Richard Medina, Colorado, 29:57 8th MTN

61. 30:46 Elliott Heath, Stanford 29:45 21st West

62. 30:46 Chris Pannone, Colorado, 29:58 9th MTN

63. 30:46 Francis Kasagule, Lamar, 2nd Southland, 30:59 8th SC (24, 30:20)

64. 30:47 Andrew Kirwa, Alabama 10th SEC (36, 30:35)

65. 30:47 Michael Maag, Princeton, 2nd Heps Ivy, 31:41 4th MA (59, 30:44)

66. 30:47 Ayalew Taye, Georgetown, 31:51 5th MA

-- 30:48 Jake Morse, Texas, 38th Big 12, 30:36 5th SC (61, 30:47)

67. 30:48 Daniel Roberts, Florida State, 31:14, 6th South

68. 30:48 Daniel Watts, OK State (53, 30:43)

69. 30:48 Matt Barnes-Smith, OK State 31:50 21st Midwest (60, 30:44)

70. 30:49 Jack Bolas, Wisconsin, 7th Big 10

71. 30:49 Kiel Uhl, Iowa State, 7th Big 12, 31:30 12th Midwest (88, 31:02)

72. 30:50 Vince McNally, Penn State, 31:52 6th MA

73. 30:50 Ben Ashkettle, Northern Arizona, 2nd Big Sky, 29:59 11th MTN

74. 30:52 Ryan Sheridan, Iona, 3rd MAAC

75. 30:53 Jesse Cherry, High Point, 25:05 3rd Big South

76. 30:53 Craig Miller, Wisconsin, 31:35 7th GL

77. 30:53 Drew Shackleton, UCLA, 29:47 22nd West (104, 31:09)

78. 30:53 Patrick Mutai, UTEP 3rd C-USA, 29:47 5th MTN (48, 30:41)

79. 30:55 Michael Krisch, Georgetown, 32:08 7th MA

-- 30:55 Daniel Chenoweth, Harvard, 31:29 6th NE

80. 30:56 Kevin McNab, Texas A&M, 30:43 6th SC

81. 30:56 Eric Fernandez, Arkansas, 30:53 7th SC

-- 30:56 Timothy Ritchie, Boston, 31:44 7th NE

-- 30:56 Nicodemus Ngoetich, UTEP, 4th C-USA, 29:58 10th MTN (57, 30:44)

82. 30:58 Emil Heineking, Virginia, 30:21 3rd SE

83. 30:58 Ryan Foster, Virginia, 30:24 4th SE

84. 30:59 Kyle Dawson, Penn State, 5th Big 10, 32:15 8th MA

-- 30:59 Brian Leung, Princeton, 32:19 9th MA

85. 31:00 Lex Williams, Michigan, 31:42 8th GL

86. 31:00 Collin Leak, William & Mary 2nd CAA, 30:39 9th SE

87. 31:00 Ciaran O’Lionard, Michigan, 31:42 9th GL

88. 31:00 Sean McNamara, Michigan, 6th Big 10, 31:42 10th GL

89. 31:02 Matt Leeder, Florida State, 31:31 12th South

90. 31:03 Craig Forys, Michigan, 31:42 11th GL

-- 31:03 Gilbert Limo, Texas Tech, 29:36 Chile, 24:39 12th Big 12

91. 31:03 Jon Grey, William & Mary 24:05 3rd CAA

92. 31:04 Diego Estrada, Northern Arizona, 3rd Big Sky, 30:09 16th MTN

01 OK State 2+9+10+19+34 = 73

02 Oregon 1+3+14+23+40 = 81

03 Stanford 8+28+46+55+61 = 198

04 Alabama 18+32+47+56+64 = 217

05 Wisconsin 31+38+44+54+70 = 237

06 Portland 4+6+35

07 Auburn 13+16+17

08 Iona 29+39+43+74

09 Georgetown 26+56+66+79

10 Colorado 49+60+62

California 20+52+58

Northern Arizona 11+73+92

Michigan 85+87+88+90

42. 30:36 Zach McFall, Iowa State, 31:21 8th Midwest

57. 30:44 Guor Marial, Iowa State, 6th Big 12

I was under the impression that Iowa State's numbers/names were incorrect. It was Gour that finished 8th, just with the number of Mr. McFall...

That really doesn't affect anything though. Just a note.

I enjoy your predictions. Thanks!

You're really underestimating the entire Mountain Region. Just throwing that out there.

True. The Mountain region always does better than predicted. McNeill dominated that race similar to Lomong last year. He will be top 5 and likely 3rd. The only question is whether he lets the race get away and tries to make up too much in the last kilometer. If he is close then he could win. The guy is a stud!

How does Bumbalough go from beating Smyth soundly as Big East to finishing 14 spots behind him at Nats?

And I don't think the West Region will have that many up front...

because he's a hoya...see last years meet...

wow, major disrespect to the SE Region in those predictions.

No disrespect intended for any regions. I included over a dozen runners from Mountain, but perhaps did underestimate SE runners. Feel free to give your own predictions for whatever runners. I think overall the field will be a bit faster than last year.

mr. rosso wrote:

How does Bumbalough go from beating Smyth soundly as Big East to finishing 14 spots behind him at Nats?

And I don't think the West Region will have that many up front...

Smyth was 15th last year while Bumbalough was 22nd. In trying to keep it realistic, I didn't predict that everyone would improve equally from last year. When dealing with nearly 100 runners, it's a bit of a crapshoot.

The West region has three of the top four ranked teams in the country (though I think Portland will be 6th due to lack of strong 4 & 5 guys). Why wouldn't they have that many near the top?

I know you're not disrespecting the MTN region, I think it is just always underestimated (by most people) due to elevation. And I saw lots of MTN region runners, I just think they'll be a lot higher. As mentioned, I think McNeill will be top 5 and his team will be top 8 at least. Korir was 18th last year so I don't see him dropping down to 30th. I don't see Korir being much better than that this year but certainly not worse. He'll beat Kyle Perry but Perry will be close behind around 20th). And I would say All 3 UTEP guys will at least be top 50, with Ngojoy around 30th. That's my prediction for some of the Mountain men.

Fastnbulbous wrote:Smyth was 15th last year while Bumbalough was 22nd. In trying to keep it realistic, I didn't predict that everyone would improve equally from last year. When dealing with nearly 100 runners, it's a bit of a crapshoot.

You're right, it is a crapshoot. Problem is Bumbalough has gotten light years better in the past year.

Bumbalough was a 3:42, 13:55 guy the spring before he was 22nd. And that fall was fifth at Big East and 3rd in the regional meet.

Yet he becomes a 3:40, 13:41 guy this spring goes undefeated and moves backwards 4 places?

He may be 26th. But he should be 10-20 if he has a day like he's been running all fall. Top 15 if a good day.

No Matt Leeder either from FSU - he will surprise and make top 50

Very reasonable points on both Bumbalough and MTN. I'd move them all up at least a few places, but I don't want to clutter this with more lists. Everyone else is welcome to make their own lists though.