Teg only ran 13:27, Ritz 13:23

that is not concrete evidence - there a ton of other factors that also go into those listsyou looked at a simple correlation of time and temperaturehow about controlling for the presence of pace makers, money at stake for setting the wr, time of year, quality of competition, etc.

Agreed, the weather was arse!Gloves, tights and hats all on display.At least the US boys and girls are getting invites to these things. They all live to race another day.

malmo wrote:

not so good wrote:

I thought people said it was 51 degrees, that isn't bad

Sure it is. It was cold, wet and windy. The chill goes right to the bone and you never get loose.

Had it been 55 degrees, dry and no wind, you'd see perhaps 10 degrees faster at max. My opinion is that 60 is about the optimal temperature for 5ks. Regardless, 2200 feet isn't optimal for fast times no matter what the conditions.

it is always funny to hear that 5500ft (Boulder) is not considered altitude, when it is convenient here, yet 2000ft is "altitude" when someone runs like crap.

i love letsrun.

plus it was a slow race, the pacer sucked, starting running 64's off the batt! time to move on

Not true. The pacers hit 30, 62, and 2:04 initially. They slowed after that later on. Also, for whoever was bashing Tegenkamp that is unfair also - he was well up in the race and ahead of Ritz until 4k. Thought that they both ran well, but as has been mentioned it wasn't "perfect" conditions. From my view at the back of the stand (just beyond start/finish) it was certainly breezy, though this seemed to have a mixed effect down on the track with the wind inconsistent at times (as could be seen from the high jump wind sock). Also, while not being exactly warm for spectators - coats and gloves were the norm - for distance it would have been not too bad but not however, one of the "perfect" distance nights there's been in Stockholm or Oslo (ie, still, slightly warm). As for rain, a couple of drops in the time I was there (7:30-10:30). Overall a great meet to visit, highly recommend it. And Tyson Gay's bend in the 200m was truly something to behold.

Top 50 1500m of all-time, average conditions

Start 71.0

hi 77.6

avg 68.7

low 59.7

3000m SC top 50

Start 72.8

hi 80.2

avg 71.7

low 62.8

5000m top 50

Start 68.4

hi 74.6

avg 65.8

low 57.3

10000m top 50

Start 65.5

hi 73.2

avg 63.8

low 54.6

calculating the mean - how robust

If Teg makes the finals in Japan then all will be fine. It was just an off race. Like Webb, Teg is now cursed for once running a unusually fast race (13:04 5k) and will be judged by that every time he runs. His great two mile run further increases expectations.

Malmo,

Kenenisa Bekele's WR 5000 was run with a temp of ~58. Assuming he was in the same 12:37 shape on a 50 degree day, how much of a factor do you think that would be? 1 second? 3 seconds?

I just can't see how 50 degrees is going to handicap a runner much (if any) in a 5000. I am not talking about other conditions - altitude, wind, etc.

Sure the weather may have played a part, but probably the most important factor was the pacing in the race. It started out slower than planned and each kilo got progressively slower until the leaders were running 13:20 pace! and were content in leaving that way. The quote by Soi said he didn't really care too much about the pace because it was good prep for the Kenyan trials - slow race with a fast kick. So the time/PR differentials really don't mean a whole lot, at least for the leaders, since they clearly weren't running all out. You can't conclude in this case that because the times were slow it is because of cold and altitude alone.Menjo has a 13:06 PR btw.

malmo wrote:

I was amazing to me that anyone would think this race was going to be done in under 13:00 -- especially ridiculous to think Tegenkamp was going to do it in Lausanne. Lausanne is at least 10 seconds slow on a good day and probably 15 seconds slow today.

Difference from PR

-17.8 1 13:10.21 (12:52.40, 27:14)) SOI, Edwin KEN

-9.9 2 13:10.68 (13:00.77, 26:35) KOGO, Micah KEN

NA 3 13:12.37 Menjo, Josphat KEN

-16.5 4 13:17.60 (13:01.06)KOSGEI, Shadrack KEN

-7.1 5 13:23.71 (13:16.61) RITZENHEIN, Dathan USA

-22.1 6 13:27.05 (13:04.90) TEGENKAMP, Matt USA

-21.8 7 13:30.60 (13:08.81, 27:03.2) MASAI, Moses KEN

NA 8 13:32.14 (3:35.52, 1st 5k) MAATAOUI, Ali MAR

-49.4 9 13:42.39 (12:52.99) CHEBII, Abraham KEN

-16.1 10 13:42.41 (13:26.30) KIPLAGAT, Bernard KEN

For reference, here is a list of some US cities and their altitudes:

http://www.altimeters.net/cityaltitudes.html

CITY(by state) AIRPORT

ELEV IN FT

ALABAMA

Birmingham Birmingham 644

Mobile Bates Field 218

Montgomery Dannelly Fld 221

ALASKA

Anchorage Anchorage Intl 144

Fairbanks Fairbanks Intl 531

ARIZONA

Grand Canyon Grand Canyon N.P. 6606

Phoenix Sky Harbor 1132

Tucson Tusc. Intl 2641

ARKANSAS

Little Rock Adams Field 258

CALIFORNIA

Bakersfield Meadows Field 507

Fresno Fresno Air Term 332

Los Angeles LAX 126

Mojave Mojave 2787

Redding Redding Muni 502

Sacramento Sacr. Metrop. 23

San Diego Lindbergh 15

San Francisco S. F. Intl. 11

COLORADO

Colorado Springs C. S. Muni 6172

Denver Centennial 5883

Grand Junction Walker Field 4858

Gunnison Gunnison County 7673

CONNECTICUT

Hartford/Windsor L. Bradley Intl. 174

DELAWARE

Wilmington New Castle County 80

DIST.OF COLUMBIA

Washington, DC Reagan National 16

FLORIDA

Jacksonville Jax Intl 30

Miami Miami International 11

Tallahassee Talahassee Regional 81

GEORGIA

Augusta Bush Field 145

Atlanta Hartsfield Intl. 1026

Savannah Sav. Intl. 51

HAWAII

Hilo Hilo Intl 47

Honolulu Honolulu Intl 13

IDAHO

Boise Boise Air Terminal 2858

Idaho Falls Fanning Field 4740

Pocatello Pocatello Muni 4449

ILLINOIS

Champaign/Urbana U of IL - Willard 754

Chicago Midway 619

Rockford Greater Rockford 736

Springfield Capital 597

INDIANA

Fort Wayne Baer Field 815

Indianapolis Indianapolis Intl 797

IOWA

Cedar Rapids Cedar Rapids Muni 864

Des Moines Des Moines Intl 957

KANSAS

Hutchinson Hutchinson Muni 1542

Topeka Forbes Field 1080

KENTUCKY

Lexington Bluegrass 980

LOUISIANA

Lake Charles Chennault 17

New Orleans N. O. Intl. 4

MAINE

Bangor Bangor Intl. 192

Portland Portland Intl Jetport 74

MARYLAND

Baltimore BWI 146

MASSACHUSETTS

Boston Logan Intl 20

MICHIGAN

Detroit Wayne County 639

Grand Rapids Kent County 794

Lansing Capital City 861

MINNESOTA

Duluth Duluth/Superior Intl 1430

Minneapolis Minneap/St Paul Intl 841

MISSISSIPPI

Jackson Jackson Intl 346

Meridian Key Field 297

College Guy wrote:

For reference, here is a list of some US cities and their altitudes:

References, for what?

This is the first time I've heard so many complaints/excuses about altitude at 2000-2500 ft (?!!). For one thing, the effects are not linear and the impact would be pretty minimal at that altitude. Maybe 5-6 seconds.Moreover, everybody is fussing about the times. That really should not be the issue. Were these guys competitive or a factor in the race? Almost, but not quite. They ran in the pack at about 7th or 8th much of the way, and then moved up, but never challenged the top 4. They faded pretty badly over the last few laps (or maybe didn't accelerate). It was a very good field, but not great. The question is, how would they fare in a WC or Olympic semi or final by running like that? Seems like, after a lot of hype about a sub 13, they just didn't have their best day. There will be others, hopefully under conditions when they can run really fast or better yet, in the hunt at the WCs or Olympics.

Still a jogger wrote:

His decision to run in Lausanne seemed a bit stange to me at best you get good weather but you cant eliminate the altitude factor.

Looking forward to both these guys going sub 13 in the near future.

anEconomist wrote:

how about controlling for the presence of pace makers, money at stake for setting the wr, time of year, quality of competition, etc.

That's pure comedy. You ask for evidence, Malmo provides a pretty compelling list. So you complain that he didn't run a randomized trial controlling for half a dozen variables?!

These aren't lab rats, so we don't have the freedom to have them run in an infinite number of conditions. But believe me, they are all looking for a way to shave a few fractions of a second off their time. If it turned out that you could run a little faster for 5000m by finding a meet with colder conditions, people would be doing that. Instead, the fastest races are set up when conditions are optimal -- in this case, with temps around 65-70F.

Does that mean no one has ever run fast when it's 50F? Of course not. People have run fast under all sorts of sub-optimal conditions -- rain, erratic pacing, crappy shoes -- but you're more likely to pull a great one when conditions are optimal.

Ferris wrote:

Does that mean no one has ever run fast when it's 50F? Of course not.

If you'll peruse the data, no one has run a fast (top 50) 5k in 50 degree weather. I count only 5k performers under 60F.... 54, 55, 58, 58, 58, 58.

Geeez...when are these guys racing again?

People were talking about the altitude. Since I don't know much more than 0ft is low (so performances should be good) and 8000ft is high (so performances should be slower), I thought I'd relate the elevation the meet was held at to some cities that people might be able to relate to.

Dude, none on your list is at 2000' so how can people relate to them?

Well, here's what we've got:

CALIFORNIA

Mojave Mojave 2787

IDAHO

Boise Boise Air Terminal 2858

KANSAS

Hutchinson Hutchinson Muni 1542

MINNESOTA

Duluth Duluth/Superior Intl 1430

So we have 2 above 2000'ft and 2 below. Out of the 4, I've personally been only to Duluth, but that at least gives me a sense of what the meet must have been like; it wasn't exactly like any of those places because it wasn't held at any of those places, but knowing a bit about places that are similar in some way might help to put the times in perspective.