Hocker COOKED in the 1500/mile?

observer of facts wrote:

Kickers usually win wrote:

He’s 24, is not cooked and there’s a more than 75% chance he would have won the WC 1500m Gold, had he not been DQed in the semis.

I mean, that's cute how you make up "more than 75% chance" to make your opinion sound genuinely quantitative. But it's not, really.

There is also not much logic to thinking he would have suddenly won his ninth post-Paris 1500 race, after losing eight in a row.

One more L would be the smart bet after 8 in a row.

moorest wrote:

observer of facts wrote:

I mean, that's cute how you make up "more than 75% chance" to make your opinion sound genuinely quantitative. But it's not, really.

There is also not much logic to thinking he would have suddenly won his ninth post-Paris 1500 race, after losing eight in a row.

One more L would be the smart bet after 8 in a row.

Admittedly, my first thought on reading 75% was that there was no basis for that. My second thought, though, was that 75% is conservative. Kerr was compromised due to a calf injury, and Ingebritsen and Nuguse weren’t there. Hocker was obviously the class of the field and race ready.

All in all, it’s impossible to compellingly argue that a recent world champion who just won perhaps the most competitive distance field ever assembled indoors is “cooked”.

Gold Hocker wrote:

observer of facts wrote:

I mean, that's cute how you make up "more than 75% chance" to make your opinion sound genuinely quantitative. But it's not, really.

There is also not much logic to thinking he would have suddenly won his ninth post-Paris 1500 race, after losing eight in a row.

One more L would be the smart bet after 8 in a row.

Before Paris in 2024 (not including random races that were workouts, like May 3 2024):

Feb 11 - Millrose 2 mile, 2nd

Mar 3 - World Indoor 1500, 2nd

May 17 - 5000 in 12:58, 11th

May 25 - mile in 3:48, 7th

June 24 - US trials 1500, 1st

June 30 - US trials 5000, 7th

Aug 6 - Olympic 1500, 1st

then a couple of 3rds and one 2nd in DL 1500s

Would you rather win everything on the circuit and get, let's say, 4th in the Olympic final, or win the Olympic final and be lackluster on the circuit?

birdbeard wrote:

Hocker is fine. Nobody with his level of kick can stay with him if it’s fast. Nobody with his endurance and strength except arguably Kerr can drop him before a kick.

moorest wrote:

moorest wrote:

Admittedly, my first thought on reading 75% was that there was no basis for that. My second thought, though, was that 75% is conservative. Kerr was compromised due to a calf injury, and Ingebritsen and Nuguse weren’t there. Hocker was obviously the class of the field and race ready.

All in all, it’s impossible to compellingly argue that a recent world champion who just won perhaps the most competitive distance field ever assembled indoors is “cooked”.

And, before I hear a “don’t you read, I said the 1500m” comeback, let me just make the point that Hocker has run well at every distance from 1000m to 3218m recently, and performances at distances in this range are highly correlated.

OACHaterzz wrote:

So losing the 1500m all year doesn’t matter? He improved strength wised but hasn’t been relevant in his main event for about 1.5 years and counting.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

OACHaterzz wrote:

So losing the 1500m all year doesn’t matter? He improved strength wised but hasn’t been relevant in his main event for about 1.5 years and counting.

Not sure how finishing 2nd, 3rd, and occasionally 4th in pretty stacked fields translates to “hasn’t been relevant.” The level of exaggerated effect is wild. He missed his opportunity last year but looked primed to medal if not win at Worlds. Yes his season was merely OK until his 5000 win at USAs. Everything else including easy in the rounds indicates he’s doing just fine

Diamondleaugueaintnolegacy wrote:

Yared won milrose and a DL or 2 last year. He’s absolutely not cooked in the 1500m right? Guess what? He couldn’t even finish top 4 at USA’s. Nobody cares about his regular season accomplishments for a reason.

And I don’t care about Hocker’s regular season accomplishments or lack there of either. I know he has a gold and a an Olympic record 1500m time in his resume. No one can convince me that he is cooked in the 1500 with that accomplishment.

OACHaterzz wrote:

He is cooked currently when he hasn’t won at the event in well over a year. When you become Olympic Champion, there is a certain responsibility/aura you attain. Hocker has lost all that aura and then some. You can’t convince me that in the 1500, he isn’t on the level of Peter Rono. Atleast Centro won some medals before his Olympic Gold? I don’t think Hocker will ever win another medal again based on how he has done. The 5000 is irrelevant on a thread about the 15.

birdbeard wrote:

observer of facts wrote:

"Fine in the 5k" could be a good motto for 2026 onward.

Fine in the 1500.

ItsCalledPeaking wrote:

Gold Hocker wrote:

Before Paris in 2024 (not including random races that were workouts, like May 3 2024):

Feb 11 - Millrose 2 mile, 2nd

Mar 3 - World Indoor 1500, 2nd

May 17 - 5000 in 12:58, 11th

May 25 - mile in 3:48, 7th

June 24 - US trials 1500, 1st

June 30 - US trials 5000, 7th

Aug 6 - Olympic 1500, 1st

then a couple of 3rds and one 2nd in DL 1500s

Would you rather win everything on the circuit and get, let's say, 4th in the Olympic final, or win the Olympic final and be lackluster on the circuit?

It is called peaking.

moorest wrote:

Kerr was compromised due to a calf injury, and Ingebritsen and Nuguse weren’t there. Hocker was obviously the class of the field and race ready.

All in all, it’s impossible to compellingly argue that a recent world champion who just won perhaps the most competitive distance field ever assembled indoors is “cooked”.