Hocker COOKED in the 1500/mile?

shouldn't have any problem picking up a win next week. Any comp besides a 16 year old? A generationally great 16 yr old. but a 16 year old nonetheless.

He’s 24, is not cooked and there’s a more than 75% chance he would have won the WC 1500m Gold, had he not been DQed in the semis.

That could be good.

Ten 1500/mile races without a win would be a tough streak.

I mean, that's cute how you make up "more than 75% chance" to make your opinion sound genuinely quantitative. But it's not, really.

There is also not much logic to thinking he would have suddenly won his ninth post-Paris 1500 race, after losing eight in a row.

One more L would be the smart bet after 8 in a row.

Before Paris in 2024 (not including random races that were workouts, like May 3 2024):

Feb 11 - Millrose 2 mile, 2nd

Mar 3 - World Indoor 1500, 2nd

May 17 - 5000 in 12:58, 11th

May 25 - mile in 3:48, 7th

June 24 - US trials 1500, 1st

June 30 - US trials 5000, 7th

Aug 6 - Olympic 1500, 1st

then a couple of 3rds and one 2nd in DL 1500s

Would you rather win everything on the circuit and get, let's say, 4th in the Olympic final, or win the Olympic final and be lackluster on the circuit?

Distance running isn’t a spreadsheet. Hocker wins when it matters—Olympic gold, World Champs gold.

You're talking about 2024.

I'm talking about NOW.

And you're actually proving my point.

Back in 2024, he could win a domestic 1500. Now he can't.

I'm not saying he hasn't had amazing moments in the 1500. Obviously he had Aug 6, 2024.

I'm saying there is nothing to suggest he will have any more of them in the distance.

Paris 2024 was his first international win in the 1500.

It may be his last.

He obviously had a very lame year in 2025 in the 1500m and couldn’t pull out his signature move ”peak when it counts” at worlds. Let’s see how he does though the next month. I’d totally forgive him if he went out and broke Jakob’s indoor WR as well as a double in World Indoors.

Fact check: He finished 2nd in GST Philly losing by .07. Also it's a judgment call to say he didn't make them any faster when in most of them he ran a lap or two at the front making sure they no slower than 58-59s tempo before the kick.

Your stat IS correct, but the context is that Hocker didn't race soft fields at all in this span. If you're expecting him to beat peak Jakob 3:26.6 shape in his preferred TT format maybe that isn't his strongest suit. It didn't help that Hocker it sounds like didn't train for about a week after Olympic Gold. Last year most of his 1500m races (GST) were months before his meaningful races, and he also shared a dual focus on qualifying for the 5,000m team. It seemed by USAs, fitness was not the problem. He basically solo'ed a 3:32 from the front in the prelims. But then he ran tentatively like top 3 was all that mattered in the US final. Ditto in his Worlds Semis, he ran like he was trying to preserve energy and let himself fall back in risky fashion. We'll see if he's learned from that, but the other factor is no excuses this year. He's pre-qualified for the big races and there's no GST or national champs to worry about. He should be ready to win a bunch of races this year at 1500/mile. I assume the timing of this thread is ahead of the Sound Running 1500 which will hurt the narrative immediately if he wins.

Ragebait 1/10

Meh. I'd be more worried about the guy in the walking boot.

Is cooked like rolled?

Jakob is 1-out-of-1 in this era for running records at all points of the year. Hocker might be alongside Kerr in the ability to peak and run well in championship races. Jakob beating Aregawi in a spirited duel was great, and taking down Neil Gourley was good, too. Hocker's gauntlet we have to admit might be somewhat more stacked this year. It appears to be:

1500-
Nuguse
Kessler (if healthy)
Nader (a different level since last year)
Moe Berg (blossoming star)

Maybe: Habz

3000-
Kerr
Krop
Schrub
Ky Robinson

Maybe: Mehary, Aregawi, Habz, Beamish

With that in mind, it'd be very impressive if he can double and win. I really had no doubts about Jakob's competition in the 1500. I'd slot Gourley behind the top 3 guys I mentioned in that 1500 list. Kerr is better than Aregawi in an unpaced 3,000 and there's potentially a lot more firepower to add in.

As well as Sam Ruthe, there is Sam Tanner and Cooper Teare amongst the sub 3.50 milers in the race. Tanner beat Ruthe over a mile in Whanganui, NZ last month.

”hint: he isn't; Fisher and Kiplimo are better-ranked”

Hint: They aren’t in the same category. Hocker doesn’t run the 10000m and those guys don’t run the 1500m.

Yes, you’re stating facts but you’re not paying attention.

You're right about a terrible 2025 in the 1500.

When the reigning Olympic champion is zero-for-nine in the event for the following 1.5 years, only the biggest fanboy can say things are going well for him in the event.

Imagine if Lyles had zero 200m wins in 2025, or if Wanyonyi couldn't win another 800m after Paris.

Everyone would say they seemed "DONE" -- and maybe they wouldn't be wrong...

Until proven otherwise, a past winner with a 9-race, 18-month losing streak is COOKED in that event.

As for the indoor WR and world indoor double, sure. Or how about... any. win. at. all?

That's what I'm saying. The races were as fast as he wanted them to be, as the 3:27 AR holder, and he still couldn't win them.