I strongly suspect that this race will suffer from the "arcadia 3200 effect", where too many cooks in the kitchen means no one serves up something special. Even in a non-championship year, winning over a field like this takes precedence over a fast time, and I believe everyone's race strategy will reflect that.
Additionally, in something as short as the 2 mile there is no longer any enormous fitness gap between the top distance guys. The best 1500 runners have been forced to develop a strong base because of the last few years of racing. I think several of the guys here are in shape to run between 7:57-8:01, but I highly doubt that will actually happen.
My prediction: Good first 1k at around 2:30 flat, followed by a lag in the pace and then a tremendous last 800 with the winner finishing in around 8:03.
It's weird to me. We literally are talking about AI wiping out all jobs - tech invetors are gleeful at the thought - but we won't allow robots to pace a race? Hell let pacers hop in and out until the final 400.
I assumed that'd been done wt. the sub-8:00 2 mile. Thanks for the fact!
Blanks deserves more attention. He ran 12:46 in Oslo last year, ~8:10-11 for the last 2 miles, & 7:29 for the indoor 3k. That's the 2rd fastest 5k in the field, behind only Fisher, and far ahead of the barely-sub-13-guys Teare, Robinson, and Hocker.
I somewhat agree. If this was a 3k USA or worlds championship I would think it would favor the kickers, which most in this race are. Blanks strength is holding a hot pace and this will be how the race is run. Not saying he will win but I will guarantee you he will be up in the front pushing this one with Fisher. I do think he can dip under 8 in the right race.
One more. Jakob's 7:17.55 is equivalent to a 7:52.82 2 mile. JK only has Hobb's 2k WR equivalent to a 8:02.95 2-mile. That being said, he has it being equal to a 3:45.87 for the mile.
Lock me in on Strand. 7:30 closing in 26 last year coming off cross country, and now he's training at altitude as a pro. Maybe he could go under 7:54 but I think 7:57-59 is more likely.
Also reminder that Strand ran 3:30 in a championship final last year outkicking Hocker. He said he could've run 3:27 last year and I believe him. This is just gonna be the race where you all realize how good he really is.
Lock me in on Strand. 7:30 closing in 26 last year coming off cross country, and now he's training at altitude as a pro. Maybe he could go under 7:54....
Lock me in on Strand. 7:30 closing in 26 last year coming off cross country, and now he's training at altitude as a pro. Maybe he could go under 7:54....
🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
You're one of the people I was talking about when I said "This is just gonna be the race where you all realize how good he really is." Last year everyone thought I was crazy for saying he'd break 3:30 or make the US team after he ran 7:30, then he ran 3:30 to make the team.
Heard him speak for the first time since the World Champs and realizing it was a welcome break from him. Constantly talking like he's so tuff and loves competing with the absolute best when he really only shows up to compete a few times a year.
I said a few weeks ago to put the house on Wolfe, and I stand by that, even though I know he's realistically pretty unlikely to win. Here's my take on everyone else:
- Hocker: he's so good but if you bet on him in the regular season you will get burned again and again. He's gonna get broken just before the kick I think.
- Kerr: should be the favorite but no races so far and a big question mark since Tokyo. I don't love his chances. Maybe if he'd raced once already I'd be more likely to bet on him.
- Fisher: a wild card, he beat Hocker in the kick last year but I think this race will go more like the year before for him.
- Strand: too inconsistent right now. His mettle has never been tested against a field of this caliber.
- Robinson: will never win, but he's a dark horse to run like 8:03 to end up on the podium. We will all be confused about this again.
I also don't think it'll be sub 8 like everyone is saying, or maybe 7:59 at the fastest. Jakob's outdoor WR is safe. People don't have the guts.
1. Wolfe 8:01
2. Kerr 8:01
3. Robinson 8:01
4. Fisher 8:02
5. Strand 8:02
6. Hocker 8:03
I can't wait to be proved really wrong and Hocker runs 7:56 somehow
I think shorter people run relatively better indoors due to the turns. So I’d go with a UNC / Nike top 2 - Wolfe and Strand. Hocker being only 5’10” which allows him to kick well outdoors but might be a tiny bit too tall for indoors
Dude what are you talking about? 7:23 is NOT equivalent to 7:56 for two miles 🤦🏻
Let's get some equivalent times out there. You convert the 2 mile to 3000 by dividing by 1.0804 and vice versa.
8:00.00 2 mile is equal to a 7:24.28 7:54.10 (Jakob's outdoor WR) is equal to a 7:18.82
Fisher's time from last year's 3k of 7:22.81 equates to a 7:58.41 to mile
Agreed. The problem though is that Fisher doesn’t seem to be in good enough form for another 7:23 performance, so then Hocker will have to take the pace and he is unproven in that regard. Nobody breaking 8 is my prediction but under 7:58 is impossible, you’ll see.
I think Grant Fisher runs this race in about 7:58.
There are lots of runners in this race who can outkick Fisher in a slow race, but I think there are only four who could conceivably do so in a race that fast:
1) Cole Hocker. He's fit. He has the strength (5000m world champ, duh) and of course he has one of the best kicks. I am picking him to win.
2) Ethan Strand - the 2 mile is right in his wheelhouse and his kick is possibly as good as Hocker's. But maybe more of a 8:02 guy right now.
3) Parker Wolfe - he's arguably the strongest runner in the race, very fit at the moment, and has a superb kick. But, sub-8 is hard. No one has ever done it indoors. I think Wolfe is more of a 8:04 guy.
4) Josh Kerr - current indoor WR holder. I doubt he'd run this race if he were out of shape, but I just don't know how fit he is at the moment.
Prediction:
1. Cole Hocker
2. Grant Fisher
3. Ethan Strand
4. Josh Kerr
5. Parker Wolfe
Personally I don’t buy the 1.06 conversion and people here, including Kerr himself, are underselling how strong 8:00 for two miles is. Yes it converts to around 7:25 but if you don’t have any experience running in the low 7:20’s as a miler moving up, that last 218 meters will be extremely difficult to get right. So far, only Hocker and Fisher are proven but Fisher’s injury makes me dubious.
I agree that we might not get as fast of a time as some are expecting. The fast times are likeliest when there are just a few guys vying for the win — enough to still push each other in the final laps but few enough so that everyone still stays on the rail.
This race is not like last year's race. Last year, there was a 7-second gap from 2nd place to 3rd place. The field was good, but not even close to this year's field.
1 Grant Fisher Nike 7:22.91 2 Cole Hocker Nike 7:23.14 3 Jimmy Gressier Kiprun 7:30.18 4 Ky Robinson On 7:30.38 5 Dylan Jacobs On 7:30.45 6 Cooper Teare Nike 7:30.62 7 Olin Hacker HOKA NAZ Elite 7:38.52 8 Adam Fogg UA Baltimore Distance 7:40.84 9 Oliver Hoare On 7:45.42 10 Stewart McSweyn Nike 7:45.46 11 Sean McGorty Nike 7:47.97
Everyone was happy to string out and no one got in Hocker and Fisher's way. Then those two battled each other to the WR.
But, in a race where 5-6 guys are all so close in ability, no one is going to be content to stay put in position six late in the race (except for maybe Beamish) — they'll be bunching on the leaders' shoulders. Indoors, this sort of jockeying usually means slower times.
Nevertheless, Gault put it best - as much as a WR would be exciting, it's the race to see who wins that we're all excited for.
I think Grant Fisher runs this race in about 7:58.
There are lots of runners in this race who can outkick Fisher in a slow race, but I think there are only four who could conceivably do so in a race that fast:
1) Cole Hocker. He's fit. He has the strength (5000m world champ, duh) and of course he has one of the best kicks. I am picking him to win.
2) Ethan Strand - the 2 mile is right in his wheelhouse and his kick is possibly as good as Hocker's. But maybe more of a 8:02 guy right now.
3) Parker Wolfe - he's arguably the strongest runner in the race, very fit at the moment, and has a superb kick. But, sub-8 is hard. No one has ever done it indoors. I think Wolfe is more of a 8:04 guy.
4) Josh Kerr - current indoor WR holder. I doubt he'd run this race if he were out of shape, but I just don't know how fit he is at the moment.
Prediction:
1. Cole Hocker
2. Grant Fisher
3. Ethan Strand
4. Josh Kerr
5. Parker Wolfe
Re: Kerr, I'm always suspect of a coach (and athlete) that says, "He is fitter than this time last year, he did this killer workout blah blah blah".
Maybe he pushed the workout too hard? Maybe previous years he didn't push that workout hard enough? Unless it is in a race context, it means nothing.
I reckon someone like Parker Wolfe could upset this entire field.
Agreed. The problem though is that Fisher doesn’t seem to be in good enough form for another 7:23 performance . . .
Again, more nonsense.
Just listen to the interviews Grant has offered since last Saturday's 2000 race.
He's thrilled with his 4:49. Most upbeat I've heard him since his Paris Oly medal races.
Pelvic injury from summer prevented him from full-out training until the 3rd or 4th week of November.
Just admitted he's known for several months he would be doing the NY Half but didn't announce it until a couple weeks back.
Thus, has been training for the road race all along with the only concession to these two track races being sets of 200s, 300s and 400s replacing mile & longer intervals he'll begin doing next week.
Grant's fit. Back running 100 mile weeks. Pleasantly surprised that what minimal speed training he's done allowed him to race 58/400s in the 2000 race. Reiterated the 2000 has given him all the confidence in the world heading into the Millrose 2 mile.
And, stated, although the technical meetings on Saturday will determine the targeted times for the pacers and pacing lights, fully expects a WR attempt.
If nothing else, what we've learned from Grant over the past several years is how quickly he rounds into shape for these winter time trial races.
From the lessons Grant's admitted to learning of overtraining & overracing from looking back on 2025, he's now years wiser, more confident and just as fit if not more so than he's ever been at this point in the season.
The Coffee Club boys were joking that all 13 runners will break 8-flat. Kerr's coach MacKay believes Jakob's 7:54 outdoor WR could be under threat. Kerr's 7:30/3000 split en route to his 8-flat two years ago now seems tame compared to Grant's 7:22.91/3000 WR last year.
If the rabbit & pace lights are set at 4-flat for the 1st mile, that pace = 7:34/3000. Way too slow. Could see Grant or someone else getting itchy and passing the rabbit before the mile to get around 3:58.
In either case, 7:56 - 7:57 FTW is looking more and more feasible. And a 7:54 - 7:55 appears within the grasp of those who are not afraid of hearing 3:58 - 3:59 at the mile mark.
I agree that we might not get as fast of a time as some are expecting. The fast times are likeliest when there are just a few guys vying for the win — enough to still push each other in the final laps but few enough so that everyone still stays on the rail.
This race is not like last year's race. Last year, there was a 7-second gap from 2nd place to 3rd place. The field was good, but not even close to this year's field.
1 Grant Fisher Nike 7:22.91 2 Cole Hocker Nike 7:23.14 3 Jimmy Gressier Kiprun 7:30.18 4 Ky Robinson On 7:30.38 5 Dylan Jacobs On 7:30.45 6 Cooper Teare Nike 7:30.62 7 Olin Hacker HOKA NAZ Elite 7:38.52 8 Adam Fogg UA Baltimore Distance 7:40.84 9 Oliver Hoare On 7:45.42 10 Stewart McSweyn Nike 7:45.46 11 Sean McGorty Nike 7:47.97
Everyone was happy to string out and no one got in Hocker and Fisher's way. Then those two battled each other to the WR.
But, in a race where 5-6 guys are all so close in ability, no one is going to be content to stay put in position six late in the race (except for maybe Beamish) — they'll be bunching on the leaders' shoulders. Indoors, this sort of jockeying usually means slower times.
Nevertheless, Gault put it best - as much as a WR would be exciting, it's the race to see who wins that we're all excited for.
Speak for yourself. I want to see PRs and who wins the race is secondary. In the women’s 3000m, I’m pretty sure that Hedengren would far prefer finishing second with an 8:25, than a win at 8:30.
When have you seen a paced race at this level, where there were 5-6 guys bunched on each other’s shoulders late in the race? Even if their abilities are similar, there are no guarantees that all of them are at near peak fitness.
Speak for yourself. I want to see PRs and who wins the race is secondary. In the women’s 3000m, I’m pretty sure that Hedengren would far prefer finishing second with an 8:25, than a win at 8:30.
When have you seen a paced race at this level, where there were 5-6 guys bunched on each other’s shoulders late in the race? Even if their abilities are similar, there are no guarantees that all of them are at near peak fitness.
haha you tell someone to speak for themself and then you try to speak for Jane. Hypocritical.
A true competitor values winning above all else. You clearly are not a true competitor.
Lock me in on Strand. 7:30 closing in 26 last year coming off cross country, and now he's training at altitude as a pro. Maybe he could go under 7:54 but I think 7:57-59 is more likely.
Also reminder that Strand ran 3:30 in a championship final last year outkicking Hocker. He said he could've run 3:27 last year and I believe him. This is just gonna be the race where you all realize how good he really is.