Has Jonathan Gault lost it? His Millrose favorite isn't named Grant Fisher or Cole Hocker — It's.....

Cole is at his best when running on pure hate. Getting DQ'd from the 1500 last summer in Tokyo gave him that extra juice to win the 5000.

Having his 2000 AR ripped away in less than 24 hours is that same juice.

Cole Hocker: 7:57
Grant Fisher: 7:59
Parker Wolfe: 8:01
Josh Kerr: 8:01
Ethan Strand: 8:03
Ky Robinson: 8:03
George Beamish: 8:04
Cooper Teare: 8:04
Drew Hunter: 8:06
Graham Blanks: 8:07
Edwin Kurgat: 8:07
Jake Wightman: 8:09

This race could easily fizzle out after the pacer steps off. A bunch of kickers looking at each other. fisher will be the one tasked with pushing the pace and Cole will not be going to the lead this year. if they get through the mile in 3:59, a 3:06 1200 could ruin things. they’d still close in 54 though for a 7:59 though. damn, times are crazy.

If they can get Bove, the same pacer as they had in the 2k this weekend, I bet they can go faster than expected. I bet he can run 59s/400m thru 2k.

At that point, Fisher is the most likely to take up the pace. If he keeps it on 59s/400m then someone is going to outkick him and run 755-756, there are just too many huge kickers for him to win. Fisher would have to do something insane like 753 to win. If Kerr is healthy and fit, there is no way 3 guys beat him. Other than Ingebrigtsen, he might be the most consistent performer on the circuit when he does race. His tactics are the best in the field, especially compared to someone like Hocker. Hocker might be the most talented American distance runner ever but he puts himself into bad positions on a regular basis. That is more problematic indoors vs outdoors, but he may be able to overcome it because he's so incredibly fast at the end. Strand is the real wild card here. We haven't seen him in multiple years worth of high level races like the other guys so we don't know if he can hang on to a really hot pace in a 3k/2 mile and simultaneously get the tactics right. My guess is that he can because he just outkicked Kwemoi at world xc. I just don't think Wolfe has the gas to be there at the end. Right now, he looks like a younger version of Fisher.

Kerr takes over from Fisher with a strong move at 450m to go.

Hocker puts in a big move with 150m to go to try and take the lead but Kerr holds him off around the turn with Strand in tow.

Strand finally makes his move off the final turn but its too late.

1. Hocker 755.83

2. Kerr 756.02

3. Strand 756.10

4. Fisher 757

The pace is too hot for anyone else to be under 8 minutes

Cole Hocker is the king of the world. Celine Dion is singing his praises.

Hocker - 7:52

Wolfe - 7:54

Fisher - 7:55

Kerr - 7:55.9

Strand - 7:57

No, after the pacers step off the track, Fisher will keep it going as time is more important to him than placing. Running 7:57-58 in a race that is not his best distance, will a confidence builder for outdoors.

Agreed, Cole has made it very clear that without a world championship to peak at, he's chasing fast times. Sitting and kicking is becoming more and more a thing reserved for NCAA. American middle distance running, really from the 400m to the 5000m, is the strongest it's ever been. American distance runners are realizing they are good enough to run fast the entire race and still kick hard.

Agree. After the pacer steps off it will not be a switching and kick. Fisher will keep it going. Blanks too. The race is basically who can run 60’s with pacer and then who can hold on running 59 and 58s. You can’t overlook Cole here and I also think Wolfe is maybe in the best shape of anyone.

Cole in around 7:58

wolfe

fisher

kerr

blanks

strand

robinson

Too many people are discounting Strand and Wolfe, they're almost always fit indoors, and have shown to be continually improving, whereas the rest are more stagnant. I'm guessing at this point in the season Strand is probably going to take it, but in both of their peaks I'd take Hocker.

Prediction:

1. Strand

2. Hocker

3. Wolfe

4. Fisher (most likely to lead after pacer drops, but unsure he wants to do that two weeks in a row)

5. Kerr (could get 4th, depends on his fitness coming in)

If the pace dies down severely, Beamish can always take it. Could also see Robinson surprising and going top 5 in the 3-5 range.

If Fisher wants to win he knows he needs to lead this race. I think most people assume to results are going to be that of a USA trials or worlds race. This is going to be very different. It’s a time trial and will be about hanging on to the pace.

Agreed regarding Bove. However, I will feel bad for him if he has to rabbit again. He should be racing. He’s in the best shape of his life. Only happens once.

…also realize what you are saying. If by running 59s, you mean avg 59.5, it would mean a 4:57.5 for 2000m. Before this year, that was #4 US all time. I agree that he can probably do that and he would “rabbit”????

Poor Bove

Agreed, but the field is set and space is limited indoors. The only way he gets an entry is if someone scratches. Even if someone scratches, I'm not sure he's the next guy they call? I bet the meet director would be just as likely to not add a replacement. I don't know his racing schedule, maybe he already has a race lined up this weekend or the following weekend? If the money is right, he should be the pacer based upon the 2k performance. He was heady enough to realize the lights were wrong and then adjusted near perfectly.

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2026/01/who-wins-the-all-time-great-2-mile-at-2026-millrose-we-rank-everyone-from-13-to-1/

I think deep fields like this tend to disappoint time-wise, more often than not. When everyone is dangerous, the race goes conservative. Everyone is hyping this up as a potential WR race because of the field, but is the field bought in? I doubt it. I'll take "no" on the world record moneyline.

That being said, I think it will be a kicker's race, and we have a lot of kickers here. The best kickers are Hocker, Strand, and Beamish. I think the winner will come from that group.

Hocker is in good form right now, but he got outkicked last year in the 3K against Fisher.

Strand is in his first year training under Mike Smith. Smith doesn't tend to have his guys sharp early in the season. Though he did run 7:30 off of just threshold and hills, so who knows.

I put 5 bucks on Beamish to win the steeple gold at Worlds last year just a minute or two before the race started, and he net me $100. A quick glance at his Instagram suggests he's healthy.

I'll take Beamish.

Ethan Stand will win. He’s the best and most talented runner in the field. I think he’ll end up as a 3:27/sub 12:50 guy by the end of his career

I also think Lutkenhaus runs 1:13 to win the 600m