I doubt it. I don't think he has the 800m speed to run 3:52. I still think Nauman is the only one out there right now with a realistic shot at it.
You do know JS has split sub 1:50.....don't you?
You need to run considerably faster than 1:49 to run 3:52 at this level. The extra few years of aerobic development and experience in college make a huge difference.
Alan Webb was a 1:47 runner (negative split)
Powell ran 1:46
Tostensen ran 1:47 in practice
Kessler split 1:47 in heavy wind
Ryun split 1:47 at Kansas Relays iirc (might have been his freshman year in college)
You need to run considerably faster than 1:49 to run 3:52 at this level. The extra few years of aerobic development and experience in college make a huge difference.
Alan Webb was a 1:47 runner (negative split)
Powell ran 1:46
Tostensen ran 1:47 in practice
Kessler split 1:47 in heavy wind
Ryun split 1:47 at Kansas Relays iirc (might have been his freshman year in college)
Ryun split 1:47.7 for 880 yards after running a 4:04.8 mile on April 16, 1965, page 105 The Jim Ryun Story book.
You need to run considerably faster than 1:49 to run 3:52 at this level. The extra few years of aerobic development and experience in college make a huge difference.
Alan Webb was a 1:47 runner (negative split)
Powell ran 1:46
Tostensen ran 1:47 in practice
Kessler split 1:47 in heavy wind
Ryun split 1:47 at Kansas Relays iirc (might have been his freshman year in college)
Ryun split 1:47.7 for 880 yards after running a 4:04.8 mile on April 16, 1965, page 105 The Jim Ryun Story book.
Forgot to mention that was his senior year of high school.
You need to run considerably faster than 1:49 to run 3:52 at this level. The extra few years of aerobic development and experience in college make a huge difference.
Alan Webb was a 1:47 runner (negative split)
Powell ran 1:46
Tostensen ran 1:47 in practice
Kessler split 1:47 in heavy wind
Ryun split 1:47 at Kansas Relays iirc (might have been his freshman year in college)
Ryun split 1:47.7 for 880 yards after running a 4:04.8 mile on April 16, 1965, page 105 The Jim Ryun Story book.
Thanks! I knew I had read about it somewhere. I guess his freshman year was when he ran 1:44.x and 8:25y haha
Anyone know his indoor plans? Seems like he has the fitness for sub 4 if he can get in the right race and be pulled along at the right pace before his kick. A pro or collegiate race where a bunch of guys go sub 4 seems like a good fit for him right now.
Others like Rohatinsky, Saarel, Mantz are in the conversation, but above had more success in HS.
Don’t forget Creer from’76-‘77.
Jackson Spencer’s course record at Woodward Park in CA is a superior performance to anything these other guys did in high school xc. Not to mention victories in consecutive races over all time greats like Van Meerten and Horton who also have some impressive records puts Spencer as the clear number 1 runner from Utah.
You need to run considerably faster than 1:49 to run 3:52 at this level. The extra few years of aerobic development and experience in college make a huge difference.
Alan Webb was a 1:47 runner (negative split)
Powell ran 1:46
Tostensen ran 1:47 in practice
Kessler split 1:47 in heavy wind
Ryun split 1:47 at Kansas Relays iirc (might have been his freshman year in college)
OK, you have demonstrated your ability to give lots of clicks to various website to accumulate this response, but my take.....off of a 14:16 at Woodbridge and smashing a legends course recording by 8s shows this kid is ready to go. Not sure how long you've been following track, but when German ran that 14:24 people were in awe. People were in shock. Breaking 15 was a big deal on Woodward Park back then. I'll never forget when Arcadia put 2 guys under 15 and how huge deal it was. To compare Newberry Park and how they changed people's mindsets about how fast people could run....German did not do that. He was just so much better than everyone. So if you do not think these documented improvements JS has had this fall will not carry over to next spring....you are nutz. Besides, remember who his coach is. He will get a very good meet schedule that will set him up to run FAST and I have very little doubt your requirements of a faster 800 to give Webb's record a scare will be met.
You need to run considerably faster than 1:49 to run 3:52 at this level. The extra few years of aerobic development and experience in college make a huge difference.
Alan Webb was a 1:47 runner (negative split)
Powell ran 1:46
Tostensen ran 1:47 in practice
Kessler split 1:47 in heavy wind
Ryun split 1:47 at Kansas Relays iirc (might have been his freshman year in college)
OK, you have demonstrated your ability to give lots of clicks to various website to accumulate this response, but my take.....off of a 14:16 at Woodbridge and smashing a legends course recording by 8s shows this kid is ready to go. Not sure how long you've been following track, but when German ran that 14:24 people were in awe. People were in shock. Breaking 15 was a big deal on Woodward Park back then. I'll never forget when Arcadia put 2 guys under 15 and how huge deal it was. To compare Newberry Park and how they changed people's mindsets about how fast people could run....German did not do that. He was just so much better than everyone. So if you do not think these documented improvements JS has had this fall will not carry over to next spring....you are nutz. Besides, remember who his coach is. He will get a very good meet schedule that will set him up to run FAST and I have very little doubt your requirements of a faster 800 to give Webb's record a scare will be met.
So Spencer is 3s/mile faster than fernadez. Great. That is a 3:58 miler. That is a long way from 3:53. Seriously the guy had an incredible fall but we are talking about him slicing almost 10s off his PR. That is a huge jump...
OK, you have demonstrated your ability to give lots of clicks to various website to accumulate this response, but my take.....off of a 14:16 at Woodbridge and smashing a legends course recording by 8s shows this kid is ready to go. Not sure how long you've been following track, but when German ran that 14:24 people were in awe. People were in shock. Breaking 15 was a big deal on Woodward Park back then. I'll never forget when Arcadia put 2 guys under 15 and how huge deal it was. To compare Newberry Park and how they changed people's mindsets about how fast people could run....German did not do that. He was just so much better than everyone. So if you do not think these documented improvements JS has had this fall will not carry over to next spring....you are nutz. Besides, remember who his coach is. He will get a very good meet schedule that will set him up to run FAST and I have very little doubt your requirements of a faster 800 to give Webb's record a scare will be met.
So Spencer is 3s/mile faster than fernadez. Great. That is a 3:58 miler. That is a long way from 3:53. Seriously the guy had an incredible fall but we are talking about him slicing almost 10s off his PR. That is a huge jump...
Big jumps happen all of the time. I'll never forget the day at the PA state meet I saw a boys 4 X 800 team go from 8:04 to 7:43 in 1 week. Yep...:05 per athlete. Oh, by the way...did you know Webb dropped his PR from 3:59 to 3:53 in that one record setting race? Things happen all the time. Remember that soph who made the olympic team last summer? I'd say he improve by more than 1s last spring/summer. Just recognize JS took a legend's seemingly unbeatable course record to the woodshed, beat it and demonstrated large jumps in improvement this XC season. He's coming back with some fast times and has a legendary coach who will position him to do great things. Just sit back and enjoy his efforts and see what happens.
So Spencer is 3s/mile faster than fernadez. Great. That is a 3:58 miler. That is a long way from 3:53. Seriously the guy had an incredible fall but we are talking about him slicing almost 10s off his PR. That is a huge jump...
Big jumps happen all of the time. I'll never forget the day at the PA state meet I saw a boys 4 X 800 team go from 8:04 to 7:43 in 1 week. Yep...:05 per athlete. Oh, by the way...did you know Webb dropped his PR from 3:59 to 3:53 in that one record setting race? Things happen all the time. Remember that soph who made the olympic team last summer? I'd say he improve by more than 1s last spring/summer. Just recognize JS took a legend's seemingly unbeatable course record to the woodshed, beat it and demonstrated large jumps in improvement this XC season. He's coming back with some fast times and has a legendary coach who will position him to do great things. Just sit back and enjoy his efforts and see what happens.
Sure. But make a list of all the people who ran as fast as spencer did jr year and tell me how many improved to run 3:53😁 He is running the same xc times as a guy who ran a 4:00 1600m. Nothing to suggest he is going from that group of best of his class to best of all time.
And sure hope he does. But look at how guys like Salhaman, powell and a few others looked to have all the tools and haven't come close. Same thing with the 2 mile. We have enough sub 4 min milers that record should be getting scared every year. But it isn't.
Big jumps happen all of the time. I'll never forget the day at the PA state meet I saw a boys 4 X 800 team go from 8:04 to 7:43 in 1 week. Yep...:05 per athlete. Oh, by the way...did you know Webb dropped his PR from 3:59 to 3:53 in that one record setting race? Things happen all the time. Remember that soph who made the olympic team last summer? I'd say he improve by more than 1s last spring/summer. Just recognize JS took a legend's seemingly unbeatable course record to the woodshed, beat it and demonstrated large jumps in improvement this XC season. He's coming back with some fast times and has a legendary coach who will position him to do great things. Just sit back and enjoy his efforts and see what happens.
Sure. But make a list of all the people who ran as fast as spencer did jr year and tell me how many improved to run 3:53😁 He is running the same xc times as a guy who ran a 4:00 1600m. Nothing to suggest he is going from that group of best of his class to best of all time.
And sure hope he does. But look at how guys like Salhaman, powell and a few others looked to have all the tools and haven't come close. Same thing with the 2 mile. We have enough sub 4 min milers that record should be getting scared every year. But it isn't.
Do you know how many races German did that were set up to run fast for him? When I say he was so much better than everyone I mean it. Not one race with a pacer. Not of these pacing lights as they were not even a thing back then. No Pre Invite. No races against pros. He had to skip Arcadia that year for fear of injury. As a matter of fact, ask his coach Bruce Edwards all German did in terms of workouts that spring for fear injury. Maybe 200s and that's it? I forget as it's been a long time. But German was better than 4:00. A better indicator of German might be his first ever indoor race where he beat some world record in 3:55 mile. Maybe the World Junior, under 18 or whatever. But I have never spoken to one person that did not think German was not faster than 4:00.
Nothing here is tearing you apart. However, 2 things that can’t be compared:
1. times. from course to course, year to year, decade to decade, time is irrelevant. I am amazed to Coaches and Runners at the high school level comparing times across the United States. This makes zero sense. Then of course, there is the shoe issue.
2. It seems that a lot of current runners are just looking at the greats in the last decade. I think there was a guy in rich Kimball and Tom Hunt back in the 70s that eitherr won or was second place at the world junior cross country championships well before there was Nike nationals or even the footlocker. I believe Craig, Virgin, Mark, Davis, Reuben Reina, and a whole list of others are not being thought of because they were running before most of the readers here were born.
I would say a good result at world junior cross-country championships holds more weight than Nike Cross, etc.
No, that does not diminish Jackson’s season. I’m sure he would not even entertain the thought of being one of the all-time greats.
None of this was antagonistic, just to let you know!
Don't forget Eric Hulst from Laguna Beach, CA. He won World Jr. X-Country Championships in 1976. He beat Thom Hunt in that race.
I believe Simmons could’ve broken the German Fernandez record and he had no chance at Webb’s mile record when he was in hs. Spencer is like Simmons, good aerobic engine. Will be shocked if Spencer runs faster than 3:57. If he doesn’t have the engine for 13:25 then he can’t do 3:53. His best chances are running faster than 13:38 this indoor for the 5k record and 2 mile records indoor and he has an outside shot at the outdoor record 2 mile. But can he outkick Nauman?
If Simmons comes back healthy and fast we’re all going to do revisionist history and put him down as the Utah hs goat. Can’t lie I like Jojo’s NXN win and his Grand Prix international Junior win + sub4 combo. We always tend to combine people’s xc and track careers on here, so hard to separate.