Most, though not all of you are missing my point. I’m not talking last years graduating class. I’m talking about current Sophomores and Juniors too. They’re not performing.
My “generational talent” comments are in jest. That’s the point. They’re not. They’re good runners who have inflated hs times because of super shoes and overtraining. If we really had all these generational talents we would see the international athletes would not be dominating.
sure, you have some rando 28yo. But the truth is … taken all the sub 4:05/8:50 guys over the last 3y of hs and at least half of them should be top 30 in cross. Virtually all should make the dance. kitchen, bierbaum, Martin and sahlman are the only ones close. That’s pretty pathetic for all these other studs.
Point is; either they’re not generational talents after all and they just burnt out and shoes inflated their times, or they’re soft. I think the former.
set all records in Oregon h.s. got h.s. 6 mile record nationals thought he would surely eclipse Pre's 2 mile record won bidlett games and1980s Olympics USA saying we are not going to russia
had a lot of injuries but a happy warrior great family as well and then his pickup truck flipped over on icy road
McChesney did not run a HS 6-mile record, Virgin held the 2-mile record and not Pre, he did not win the Olympic trials 5000m in 1980, he was driving in rainy weather and not on ice, and his pickup did not flip.
The talent pool of the US hasn’t magically increased. High schoolers are just training harder, racing more competitively, and racing for times. An 8:50 this year means far, far less than an 8:50 from pre-2020.
With all this talk about foreigners dominating cross in the ncaa… where are all these ridiculous US HS kids? Would think with the plethora of sub 8:45 and sub 4:05 guys in high school that are all supposedly generational talents we would not be getting crushed by Kenyans. Most of these kids aren’t even getting to the dance.
A few of the normal things that most of the responses have already pointed out: 1) Many of them are immediately redshirted and don't race until they are sophomores, in large part because, 2) It's challenging to transition from HS to college. From a training perspective, you are immediately stuck into a brand new system in which you are no longer the main focus, are coming off the end of the track season, and are having to learn the ropes of how training and racing work at the NCAA level. At the same time, you're also dealing with social and academic changes—your first fall is normally tumultuous and stressful across every dimension, which tends to place a cap on what you can accomplish. It's no wonder most don't make it when compared to more capable options on a team.
More broadly though, I do think some of this is the result of an over-emphasis on HS times and performances. Prep competition may be getting faster and faster and the record books have been shattered basically every year over the past decade, but that is in large part because HS training is getting more and more elite. In plenty of cases (and as has been discussed on LetsRun plenty of times), graduates from many of the best programs tend to be closer to their limit and can't make the necessary jump in performance. Because they have already been training like collegiate athletes, the benefit they get from the more periodized, advanced college system is gone. Only the actual prodigies remain, and even then, it often takes them some time to adjust given the factors outlined earlier. A lot of this problem is because we are time and performance obsessive now whereas most other countries explicitly focus on the racing components of XC first and foremost, which in turn puts the emphasis on personal development.
I'm not meaning to imply that this professionalized approach to HS level training is bad, but it often leads to results chasing that disregards the long-term future of the athlete for the immediate now. The NCAA system further enflames this model because it directly encourages young athletes to prioritize results now for recruitment purposes, which in turn devalues what comes after signing day. There's never really a prioritization of developmental paths for athletes, which in turn leads to many falling through the cracks as they get injured or find other interests.
Isn’t redshirting a freshman distance runner uncommon? If they end up being in school for four years, they’ve wasted a year and the best way to prepare for a sophomore year is competing as a freshman.
The training for HS and college is similar. HS runners have always wanted to race as fast as possible and all runners are coming off a track season. The record books are not being shattered every year. For example, Webb’s mile record, LV’s 2-mile and Chapa’s 10000m have not been broken. German Fernandez held the Woodward Park record for many years and is still 2nd on the list. Many people still consider Ritzenheim to be the GOAT of HS cross country.
What are the racing components of XC? What does focusing on personal development mean? In terms of training, what how does a professional approach for training compare to traditional training? Many HS elite runners from the past, trained extremely hard including 100mpw, rarely HS runners have rarely considered the long-term and have always focused on results including chasing records and running well in championships. That’s what competing in sports is all about. During my senior year, there were 10 guys that broke 9:00 in California, which was rare at the time, and only two ran well in college.
High school runners are improving because they have higher expectations and are training more like collegians. So, they are closer to college level and should be better, not worse, prepared for college xc. But the collegians are better as well, hundreds running sub-4 every year, and with this influx of foreign pros, it is a lot harder to place top thirty. Even in normal circumstances, the vast majority of NCAA All-Americans will be juniors and especially seniors.
I ran cross country & track in IN back in the early 1970's, and a couple years ago I was curious about how some of the guys who won the state CC or track 2M during those years did in NCAA CC. Looking through the subsequent NCAA results, almost NONE of them even ran in the NCAA championships (Chapa & Pinkowski notwithstanding). The jump to NCAA is just a big leap for most high school runners.
For every generational talent that has been training intensely since age 9, there are 10 or more talented, undertrained runners who come into their own in college.
sure, you have some rando 28yo. But the truth is … taken all the sub 4:05/8:50 guys over the last 3y of hs and at least half of them should be top 30 in cross. Virtually all should make the dance. kitchen, bierbaum, Martin and sahlman are the only ones close. That’s pretty pathetic for all these other studs.
I already covered this. That’s probably 40 guys and you’re saying 20 of them should be in the top 30 when there are also seniors, 5th years, internationals, and others.
not every 8:50 kid is supposed to run 13:25 as a junior. Even 13:45 would be a reasonable improvement and that’s way too slow for top 30.
bingo - that was my point earlier. Look at the talent the ivies get every year - pretty insane top to bottom. These kids train their asses off in HS and are full pay - the end goal is landing at an ivy as opposed to continuing to develop in college. And very rare for an ivy kid even at the top running schools to outperform their “potential” from the junior year HS times they delivered to get recruited.
the coaches of the hs teams that are the perennial regional winners at NXN aren’t coaching the kids as a developmental stepping stone for college - they are doing it to win. That’s why some of the top hs juggernaut teams we always talk about are logging rhe 100+ mile weeks over the summer (14-18 year olds!), they are squeezing out the future potential in hs. And the kids embrace this approach because that will get them recruited - very very few college coaches know how to identify undeveloped talent and only recruit based on demonstrated results. There are some real relevant examples of this phenomena from last year’s regional NXN stalwarts on the boys side - duds so far..
The only high schooler I can think of that ran 100+ miles a week at any point is Dathan Ritzenhein. I’m sure Lindgren may have as well, and I don’t doubt there are others I don’t know about.
Can anyone seriously tell me of any recent high schooler programs or runners hitting 100? Or even 80 for that matter? I’ve seen Doug Soles accused of overtraining his runners before due to the lack of success of Great Oak runners post high school, but Herriman tops out at 70 flat. NP was low 60s, Jane did high 50s.
For every generational talent that has been training intensely since age 9, there are 10 or more talented, undertrained runners who come into their own in college.
Intense training starting from freshman year, or even from sophomore year like Ryun, is just as just as good. So many posters are claiming HS runners are putting too much focus in HS to run fast times over saving for the long-term. You’re saying the exact opposite.
It should be pointed out that while none was called a 'generational' prospect, the top three American men were all sub-4 high school milers, Hansen, Gary Martin, and Colin Sahlman.
Aiden Smith was 29th last year and 25th this year. In the meantime, he ran 4 flat and 28:21.
His first NCAA track race for Oregon was in 2023, an 8:05. He might have a real future in the marathon, given his lack of speed decay (his 3k pr is still only 7:55).
Ethan Coleman (4:11/8:51 hs) of ND, 28th, has run 3:57/7:49/13:27/28:19.
You have to be awfully good to get top 30 in NCAA xc right now.