There were tons of athletes on the list, many you've heard of, and it was a leak from Fancy Bears, hoping to make Western Athletes look bad. Fancy Bears had a series of leaks.
Here is the list of the leak that had Jager:
"Likely doping" isn't a scientific term, but I'd love to know more what it really meant in biological passport terms and what those scientist think of it 8 years later.
Tons on the list? Not even 50, and 2/3 of them not "likely doping" but only "passport suspicious". Only one, Jager, with 5 out of 3 stars! And we know from Faiss et al. (Front Physiol 2020) that 15 - 18% even used in-competition blood doping at worlds. Meaning those flagged were only the tip of the iceberg.
Here's the procedure, see sportsintegrityinitiative:
When such an ATPF is flagged under the ADAMS system, an ABP Management Unit (ABPMU) expert must conduct an initial review and ascertain if the ATPF indicates ‘likely doping’. Under the ABP Operating Guidelines (PDF below) such an expert must consider the information within an athlete’s passport, and must conclude that ‘it is likely that the Passport is the result of the Use of a Prohibited Substance or Prohibited Method and it is highly unlikely that it may be the result of a normal physiological or pathological condition’.
That 2017 Guardian article - from before the AIU went down on Kenya - is hilarious to read now. Especially the part about Kiprop (police athletes barely reachable) and this one here:
Separately, nine Kenyans are on a list released by Fancy Bears who have had abnormal athlete biological passport violations – five are marked as being “likely doping” – although all were allowed to compete following subsequent tests. Officials estimate the number of positive tests at 50 in the past four years and in April, Jemima Sumgong, the winner of last year’s London and Rio Olympic marathons, was banned for taking banned substances. The leaks will again fuel suspicions that Kenya is not doing enough to tackle doping. However, the IAAF has demanded far greater testing in recent months and the Guardian understands that all Kenyans who compete at next month’s world championships in London will have undergone a number of pre-competition tests.
LOL! Couple more observations:
Kiprop and Sumgong are points in case: Kiprop only had "passport" suspicious, and Sumgong wasn't even on the list. Both were banned for blood doping with EPO in 2017.
Kisorio, like Jager, had three results: 1x likely doping, 2x passport suspicious, and was banned in 2012 and 2022.
Since 2017, Jager was tested by USADA alone 10 - 18 times per year, like Rupp and Houlihan. And after 2018, his best result was a 13:12 over 5000 and 8:16 in the steeple.
If you are implying he didn't run that close to his PRs past 2018 because he started getting tested more and therefore wasn't able to dope to the level he had before, I'd also remind you the guy was 29 at the time. It would be more suspicious if he continued to PR, he was past his biological prime.
This post was edited 45 seconds after it was posted.
That 2017 Guardian article - from before the AIU went down on Kenya - is hilarious to read now. Especially the part about Kiprop (police athletes barely reachable) and this one here:
LOL! Couple more observations:
Kiprop and Sumgong are points in case: Kiprop only had "passport" suspicious, and Sumgong wasn't even on the list. Both were banned for blood doping with EPO in 2017.
Kisorio, like Jager, had three results: 1x likely doping, 2x passport suspicious, and was banned in 2012 and 2022.
Since 2017, Jager was tested by USADA alone 10 - 18 times per year, like Rupp and Houlihan. And after 2018, his best result was a 13:12 over 5000 and 8:16 in the steeple.
Facts are facts. Make of them as you wish, but it's still just speculation if you're trying to connect the dots to cheating until proven otherwise. Was Jager linked to EPO use, specifically?
This guy virtually disappeared once the Fancy Bears leak happened.
Also didn't go too deep into his racing history but I wouldn't be surprised if he was "injured" for a period of 12-24 months, since he was being tested by USADA as much as Rupp/Houlihan.
Always liked him, but that passport thing is new to me and concerning,
There were tons of athletes on the list, many you've heard of, and it was a leak from Fancy Bears, hoping to make Western Athletes look bad. Fancy Bears had a series of leaks.
Here is the list of the leak that had Jager:
"Likely doping" isn't a scientific term, but I'd love to know more what it really meant in biological passport terms and what those scientist think of it 8 years later.
Jager immediately released a statement stating his innocence
A lot of athletes stayed silent as it was a leak of info that was supposed to be private and no clarification was given on.
It means either elevated levels(of Testosterone or other hormones) or erratic levels. Not enough to be banned but enough that it is suspicious. There might be more factors but those are the ones I know.
I mean, Olympic silver medalist, American record holder, and clearly capable of sub-3:50 mile, sub-8:00 steeple, and sub-13:00 5000 in his prime, especially if you gave him today’s shoes. He’s very high up on the list.
That’s what I’m thinking. Plus he had a long career, which counts for something in a GOAT ranking. I’m thinking you are right. I’m pretty confident he’s a top ten.
Mt. Rushmore:
Cole Hocker (GOAT), then in no particular order Centro, Jim Run, Frank Shorter
5-10 in no particular order:
Grant Fisher, Evan Jager, Bill Rogers, Bernard Lagat, Salazar (I know), Galen Rupp
Honorable Mentions:
Billy Mills, Dave Wottle, Jim Spivey, Steve Scott, Bob Schul, Craig Virgin, Pre, Rick Wohlhuter, Johnny Gray, Horace Ashenfeldter
Hilarious. Wottle is an Olympic Gold Medalist. Billy Mills...Gold Medalist. Jim Spivey...3 time Olympian...tenths of a second from 4 time.
That 2017 Guardian article - from before the AIU went down on Kenya - is hilarious to read now. Especially the part about Kiprop (police athletes barely reachable) and this one here:
LOL! Couple more observations:
Kiprop and Sumgong are points in case: Kiprop only had "passport" suspicious, and Sumgong wasn't even on the list. Both were banned for blood doping with EPO in 2017.
Kisorio, like Jager, had three results: 1x likely doping, 2x passport suspicious, and was banned in 2012 and 2022.
Since 2017, Jager was tested by USADA alone 10 - 18 times per year, like Rupp and Houlihan. And after 2018, his best result was a 13:12 over 5000 and 8:16 in the steeple.
Facts are facts. Make of them as you wish, but it's still just speculation if you're trying to connect the dots to cheating until proven otherwise. Was Jager linked to EPO use, specifically?
One might recall he had a teammate test positive and serve a doping ban
That 2017 Guardian article - from before the AIU went down on Kenya - is hilarious to read now. Especially the part about Kiprop (police athletes barely reachable) and this one here:
LOL! Couple more observations:
Kiprop and Sumgong are points in case: Kiprop only had "passport" suspicious, and Sumgong wasn't even on the list. Both were banned for blood doping with EPO in 2017.
Kisorio, like Jager, had three results: 1x likely doping, 2x passport suspicious, and was banned in 2012 and 2022.
Since 2017, Jager was tested by USADA alone 10 - 18 times per year, like Rupp and Houlihan. And after 2018, his best result was a 13:12 over 5000 and 8:16 in the steeple.
You conveniently leave out some of the best races of Jager's career which were AFTER Fancy Bears.
In 2017, he won the Monaco DL 2 weeks after Fancy Bears release in his #3 time ever.
He goes to Worlds a month later and wins bronze.
Perhaps you'd argue the hay was already in the barn for 2017. Ok. I understand argument, but I'd argue mentally the release did nothing to phase him.
The NEXT YEAR in 2018, Evan runs his lifetime PR. So in summary 2 of his 3 fastest times ever, and his only DL win after Fancy Bears.
He breaks his foot in DL Final. He doesn't finish a steeple for 2019, 2020, 2021.
You want to tell me that's because of Fancy Bears? The easier explanation is his performance fell off because he was injured.
2022 he gets healthy enough to get 6th in the World.
** FYI We're recording pod now with Evan, just wrapped up the Fancy Bear section. I told him I was posting in this thread.
That’s what I’m thinking. Plus he had a long career, which counts for something in a GOAT ranking. I’m thinking you are right. I’m pretty confident he’s a top ten.
Mt. Rushmore:
Cole Hocker (GOAT), then in no particular order Centro, Jim Run, Frank Shorter
5-10 in no particular order:
Grant Fisher, Evan Jager, Bill Rogers, Bernard Lagat, Salazar (I know), Galen Rupp
Honorable Mentions:
Billy Mills, Dave Wottle, Jim Spivey, Steve Scott, Bob Schul, Craig Virgin, Pre, Rick Wohlhuter, Johnny Gray, Horace Ashenfeldter
Hilarious. Wottle is an Olympic Gold Medalist. Billy Mills...Gold Medalist. Jim Spivey...3 time Olympian...tenths of a second from 4 time.
I do agree that an olympic gold medal is the pinnacle of the sport. However when factoring in all the variables that make a runner great, the one hit wonders Mills and Wottle do not make my top ten. No question their performances in Tokyo and Munich were heroic. They are running icons. It’s just that I think the top ten all outweigh Mills and Wottle and the rest of the one time medal crowd like Spivey.
Look at Bill Rogers. No Olympic medals. But he at one point was the greatest road racer ever! Four Bostons and four NYCs. One Fukuoka. Those accomplishments are insane. Or Shorter, who not only won olympic gold and silver but won Fukuoka four times and had great range, winning several races from 2 miles to 10k on the track and having PRs that were not that far beyond the WRs at the time. Shorter was a fighter who raced to win.
Or the one who this thread is about. Evan Jager. The greatest American steepler who had an outstanding just under 20 year career.
You conveniently leave out some of the best races of Jager's career which were AFTER Fancy Bears.
My point wasn't about the Fancy Bears, but about the target testing over the years. Especially interesting in comparo with Kiprop and Houlihan who evidently kept their dosages around the limit until they slipped.
I suspect Jager was more careful, which caused him to become injury prone - despite the superspikes starting in 2019 that TorkBomb and you conveniently left out.
My LRC namesake. One of the smoothest strides in the game. His record-setting 8 flat is still a great “what-if” of American running.
I remember watching “The Long Green Line” and after it hyped up the twins the whole time, some random dude in a headband actually won state after all…Evan Jager.
Thanks Evan for your career; you are a generational American talent in the steeple.
This post was edited 25 seconds after it was posted.
Announced on The Running Effect podcast this morning. Really good interview. He’ll be missed. Met him once with my son after he won USAs in 2013 and was very nice.
Jager didn’t medal? Are you high? The guy has an Olympic silver and World Champs bronze to go along with his American record.
Maybe he gray-zoned, maybe he didn’t, really hard to believe anyone is completely squeaky clean at that level anymore. Plus now you have the shoes and bicarb and pacing lights and God only knows what else to enhance performance.
Forgot about that claim. Which "lifetime PR" in 2018? Steeple PR was in 2015 despite the fall, age 26 (5000 PR in 2013, 3000 PR in 2012, 1500 PR in 2015). I'd argue that 8:01 without falling is worse than 8:00 with falling...