LACCTiC has Iowa State, Notre Dame and Florida virtually locked in a three-way tie for fourth. I did a double-take when I saw Iowa State, wondering where they came from.
LACCTiC has Iowa State, Notre Dame and Florida virtually locked in a three-way tie for fourth. I did a double-take when I saw Iowa State, wondering where they came from.
The Iowa State prediction includes Bella Hykes who has not competed since 8/29. She is projected at 175. Without her their next is 227. I do not see them on podium.
Interesting that Florida is seen as the heavy favorite for the 4th place podium spot despite ND being stronger through 5. In fact, the top 7 of ND are stronger than Florida's 5th. If anyone in the scoring picture for ND has a breakthrough and their low sticks remain consistent then this is a very likely podium team. Really hard to get behind the mail order teams like Florida or New Mexico. Imagine Florida, New Mexico or Oregon without the mail order component? Oregon is more thoughtful about optics but it is only a contender due to foreign recruits. For the sake of the sport I hope Florida stays off the podium.
agree - I think FL's 5th will be back around 100th in scoring and ND is my pick for 4th.
You seem to be pretty certain that Oregon has deliberately been holding back.
If indeed Oregon has been holding back, then they may be in for a rude awakening in a Natty’s race that is about to go down which holds nothing back from the gun, the type of race NC State has practice in this season.
Consequently, due to going out just a little too hard at the beginning might find, for instance, Alyydiz, Frias, Barnett, Thompson, and maybe even Cherubet…any of those five…in over their head at about the 5k mark, a spot they are not used to. At around the 5k mark is when Napoleon and ND’s Dalton starts picking them off. If Oregon isn’t careful, they could find themselves dropping off the podium in a flash.
Don’t misunderstand me…this is fixing out to be a clash of three stalwart titans.
Across their full lineup, I think this is quite likelythe strongest team Oregon has ever assembled in the history of their program.
Likewise, across their full lineup, I think this is the strongest team BYU has ever assembled in the history of their program.
But make no mistake, across their full lineup, NC State has assembled the strongest team ever assembled in the history of NCAA Division I Cross Country!
well except for New Mexico and Colorado. but I digress.
I hate to disappoint some, but Hartman is shown on IG walking up stairs to board a plane today and no crutches are in sight.
Jeez, stalker much?
lol on recruits some suggest I check every team social media site for info, in this case one of the few teams I follow posted something on IG. If that makes me a stalker, I plead guilty.
Forgive me if this has previously been answered/if I'm missing something, but aren't these times run on different courses? How would a comparison between the two be relevant?
I agree that times from different races and different courses shouldn’t be compared. I think the point being made, though, was that the ACC meet was held on a more difficult course. The B1G meet was on a manicured golf course.
I agree that times from different races and different courses shouldn’t be compared. I think the point being made, though, was that the ACC meet was held on a more difficult course. The B1G meet was on a manicured golf course.
Direct place-to-place comparisons from races on different courses are not relevant and should not be compared.
However, the ACC meet was run on the Tom Sawyer State Park course -- which has hosted 3 NCAA Div 1 XC championships dating to 2012 -- and is well known (and well regarded) as the flattest of the 7 courses now in Div 1 rotation. Though damp & muddy in spots last Friday, it still lived up to its reputation as the fastest course in the nation outside of Gans Creek (slightly hillier but perfect footing).
Can't speak to the quality of the Forest Acres Golf Course which hosted B1Gs. Looks reasonably flat with firm footing. Maybe it does run as fast as Sawyer; can't say.
However, Hartman/NC State made ACCs fast by going hard from the gun; the OR women looked to be biding their time a bit before Cherubet/OR took off FTW.
Since Cherubet recently ran a sub-19 on the perfectly flat Dellinger Invite golf course, yet was over 30 secs slower at B1Gs, feel pretty certain she held back a ton at B1Gs, thus resulting in slower times for her and most everyone else.
Any any case, the ACC course was at least as flat & fast as B1Gs.
OR placed 3 ahead of Florence Caron/PA State -- who placed 19th at last year's NCAAs.
OR placed 4 ahead of Rachel Forsythe/MI State -- who placed 16th at last year's NCAAs.
OR #6 runner was Anika Thompson -- who placed 32nd at last year's NCAAs, one place behind Riley Chamberlain/BYU.
If they duplicate those efforts on Saturday, OR likely will place it's #1, #2 and #3 in the top-10, #4 in the top-20, then #5 & #6 in the top-30. That comes out to around 70 points.
NC State's Hartman, Gapes & Napoleon might all place top-10 as well -- though Hartman's lingering foot issue casts doubt over her having that level of fitness.
Then, NC State's Rauber, Michalek & Englehardt have to go toe-to-toe again OR's Frias, Barnett & Thompson. Of these 6, Thompson has the best pedigree with her 32nd at last year's NCAAs. Rauber is next best with a 50th place last year. The other 4 either ran poorly last year at NCAAs or DNR at all.
So, given this data, the intel on Hartman, OR's #1 being ahead of NC State's #1, and OR's #6 already an AA and being ahead of NC State's #6 who was outside of AA last year, have to give the nod to OR FTW, NC State to Place, BYU to Show.
Forest Acres has hosted the NCAA cross country meet 26 times, 27, if you include D3.
I agree that times from different races and different courses shouldn’t be compared. I think the point being made, though, was that the ACC meet was held on a more difficult course. The B1G meet was on a manicured golf course.
Course measurement is an unknowable variable.
From earlier in the thread:
“the ACC meet was run on the Tom Sawyer State Park course -- which has hosted 3 NCAA Div 1 XC championships dating to 2012 -- and is well known (and well regarded) as the flattest of the 7 courses now in Div 1 rotation.”
That info suggests at least the ACC course was probably fairly accurate (unless they made some last minute changes slightly moving the boundary tape to avoid mud spots, which would have negligible affect on the overall course distance.)
“the ACC meet was run on the Tom Sawyer State Park course -- which has hosted 3 NCAA Div 1 XC championships dating to 2012 -- and is well known (and well regarded) as the flattest of the 7 courses now in Div 1 rotation.”
That info suggests at least the ACC course was probably fairly accurate (unless they made some last minute changes slightly moving the boundary tape to avoid mud spots, which would have negligible affect on the overall course distance.)
Instead of moving the boundary tape, they would be more inclined to drop dry dirt/sand in any really bad spots.
In case anyone missed it, I list the times we can expect NC State’s starting lineup to run, and consequently win, in post #596 of this thread:
Division I Cross Country10/07/2025 4:12am EDT7 months ago
Here is a start on a Natty’s Simulation Countdown :www.lacctic.com/simulate/teamIDs=953,263,2444,1329,1079&individualRunnerIDs=90788,70990,92963,106354&league=&deleted=124115,124118,125709,124116,82397,82394,124121,124122,124...
Napoleon (19:09-19:12) Hartman (19:13-19:14) Gapes (19:20-19:22) Michalak (19:30-19:34) Englehardt (19:41-19:43)
Notice the spread between their #1 and #5 is 31sec.
This is a performance that NC State has essentially already demonstrated previously at ACC’s, since I arrived at those times by taking the TiC’s from the ACC’s performances, and matched them up to what they translated to at Gans Creek (the first number in the parentheses) and PreNats.
Good they are going early to get some time on the course tomorrow before the rain hits.
Current forecast for Springfield, MO states rain starts early Thursday morning lasting through early Friday morning.
So, course will have a little more than 24 hours to dry off before the women's race goes off at 9:20 am Saturday.
I think your forecast is off by half a day. Wunderground is calling for a 51% chance of rain starting 11pm Thursday, increasing to 93% Friday morning, and still showing a 50% at 3pm Friday.
Current forecast for Springfield, MO states rain starts early Thursday morning lasting through early Friday morning.
So, course will have a little more than 24 hours to dry off before the women's race goes off at 9:20 am Saturday.
I think your forecast is off by half a day. Wunderground is calling for a 51% chance of rain starting 11pm Thursday, increasing to 93% Friday morning, and still showing a 50% at 3pm Friday.