Nursing an injured foot? Back to full strength after a brief rest?
I suspect she hasn’t been “back to full strength” all season. Nonetheless, if I were the NC State coach of their premier event, I would ask Hartman whether she is confident she can make it through the race, and tell her if she thinks she can at least finish ahead of their 5th, then RUN!
Nursing an injured foot? Back to full strength after a brief rest?
I suspect she hasn’t been “back to full strength” all season. Nonetheless, if I were the NC State coach of their premier event, I would ask Hartman whether she is confident she can make it through the race, and tell her if she thinks she can at least finish ahead of their 5th, then RUN!
To put that in perspective, can she at least gut out a 19:40 on what will be a course running ~10sec slower than PreNats, which should be comparable finishing times to those of ACC’s, where their 5th, Englehardt ran 19:45?
Nursing an injured foot? Back to full strength after a brief rest?
During the team prayer meeting the coach obviously tried to call for divine intervention to stop NC State and Oregon. Meanwhile we should expect a patched up Jenna Hutchins finishing top 10 next week in the nationals.
Nursing an injured foot? Back to full strength after a brief rest?
I suspect she hasn’t been “back to full strength” all season. Nonetheless, if I were the NC State coach of their premier event, I would ask Hartman whether she is confident she can make it through the race, and tell her if she thinks she can at least finish ahead of their 5th, then RUN!
I suspect she hasn’t been “back to full strength” all season. Nonetheless, if I were the NC State coach of their premier event, I would ask Hartman whether she is confident she can make it through the race, and tell her if she thinks she can at least finish ahead of their 5th, then RUN!
To put that in perspective, can she at least gut out a 19:40 on what will be a course running ~10sec slower than PreNats, which should be comparable finishing times to those of ACC’s, where their 5th, Englehardt ran 19:45?
if she’s even only at 90% i don’t see NC State winning, oregon and byu are too close
To put that in perspective, can she at least gut out a 19:40 on what will be a course running ~10sec slower than PreNats, which should be comparable finishing times to those of ACC’s, where their 5th, Englehardt ran 19:45?
if she’s even only at 90% i don’t see NC State winning, oregon and byu are too close
On the contrary, the guy that started the lengthy simulation thread (whose handle you are copying) made a convincing case that NC State is the clear favorite. LACCTiC is putting their odds of winning at 97%.
if she’s even only at 90% i don’t see NC State winning, oregon and byu are too close
On the contrary, the guy that started the lengthy simulation thread (whose handle you are copying) made a convincing case that NC State is the clear favorite. LACCTiC is putting their odds of winning at 97%.
Even if you completely remove Hartman from the simulation, LACCTiC gives:
1 NC State 157 2 BYU 168 3 Oregon 184
But that makes it a very close race; and in that case, if you hit the Simulation button, the winning odds become:
On the contrary, the guy that started the lengthy simulation thread (whose handle you are copying) made a convincing case that NC State is the clear favorite. LACCTiC is putting their odds of winning at 97%.
Even if you completely remove Hartman from the simulation, LACCTiC gives:
1 NC State 157 2 BYU 168 3 Oregon 184
But that makes it a very close race; and in that case, if you hit the Simulation button, the winning odds become:
1 BYU 41% 2 NC State 40% 3 Oregon 19%
Simulation button will only produce results based upon how the program is coded.
And, the code has flaws.
One of which is undervaluing OR -- maybe due to their early & mid-season races w/o Ayyildiz & Barnett.
With a full lineup at B1Gs, OR had a 1-5 spread of 39 secs and a 1-6 spread of 42 secs -- with NCAA co-favorite Cherotich winning by 15 secs. OR won with 18 points, a B1G meed record.
If those six race NCAAs like they did B1Gs, there's your likely champion -- in a squeaker over NC State.
If Hartman is healthy & fully fit come Saturday, then NC State also has a very formidable top-6 in Napolean-Hartman-Gapes-Michalak-Englehardt-Rauber. With that full lineup at ACCs, NC State had a 1-5 spread of 31 secs and a 1-6 spread of 36 secs. Even better that OR at B1Gs. However, with Cherubet 11th & Ayyildez 13th at NCAAs last fall and now Cherotich competing FTW, OR's top-3 look slightly better than NC State's. Then, with OR's #6 Anika Thompson having finished 32nd at NCAAs last year, OR's middle & back end looks slightly better as well.
Leaving BYU in 3rd. Hedengren may very well win. Riley Chamberlain finished 31st last year at NCAAs and should move up -- but OR & NC State's #2s are better. Then -- most importantly -- the 30-35 sec gap back to whomever is BYU's #3 is where OR & NC State should eat BYU alive.
Summarizing:
OR slight winner over NC State, both under 100 points. BYU clear 3rd, probably under the 147 points they scored FTW last year.
Winner: Lemngole/AL -- manages to hang w/Hedengren thru 5.5k then kicks it in.
Runner-up: Cherotich/OR -- stays with Hedengren & Lemngole the longest.
Show: Longisa/WSU -- big West Regional win over Cherotich (likely cruising but still fast)
Time: even with rain in the forecast for Springfield, MO this week, given that the Gans Creek course is so well manicured and drained -- along with being mostly flat with wide, sweeping turns which eliminate bottlenecks -- likely Hedegren's 18:42 CR will be broken. Diljeet suggested post-Mountain Regionals, Jane has been holding back a bit but will be "turned loose" on Saturday. Projecting winning time around 18:30 -- unthinkable up until this year.
On the contrary, the guy that started the lengthy simulation thread (whose handle you are copying) made a convincing case that NC State is the clear favorite. LACCTiC is putting their odds of winning at 97%.
Even if you completely remove Hartman from the simulation, LACCTiC gives:
1 NC State 157 2 BYU 168 3 Oregon 184
But that makes it a very close race; and in that case, if you hit the Simulation button, the winning odds become:
1 BYU 41% 2 NC State 40% 3 Oregon 19%
looking at the math, it's obvious that without Hartman at full strength, NC State's gonna lose
FYI, I spoke with Laurie Henes earlier today. Will have more in my NCAA preview later this week but I can tell you two things:
1. Grace Hartman developed a plantar issue over the summer and has had to manage it during this XC season.
2. Henes confirmed that, barring an unforeseen setback, Grace Hartman will race at NCAAs on Saturday. She said that it was always part of the plan that Hartman would skip the regional meet and that she ran a workout that day instead.
This post was edited 52 seconds after it was posted.