When Cheptegei broke the WR, maybe because few believed he could do it (I remember the discussion here and include myself), his last pacer dropped out not even halfway through the race. And he ran the fastest laps alone.
Jakob could get pacing up to 3000 or 3200, exactly at WR pace or slightly faster, allowing him to “drop off” a bit once he's solo. I’m not sure what the most efficient way to structure that time trial would be. He could get the record without necessarily hitting his peak shape (or Joshua's peak shape for that matter). And, personally, I wouldn’t raise an eyebrow: he’s earned the right to go for it under the best conditions he can set up, and at the end of the day, it’s still his legs that would have to cover 5000 meters in under 12:35.36
First: His 3000m WR shape was significant better than his 2 miles WB shape. 7:17.55 equals a 7:51 mid in the 2 miles.
Second: If he regains his 2 miles WB shape I think he can narrowly break the 5000m WR. If he regains his 3000m WR he will be able to break the 5000m WR with several seconds.
Third: But it is uncertain if he will come back to these high levels. It is at least necessary that he overcomes his injury problems.
Your last point decides everything, although I don't see his abilities over the 5k being commensurate to the 3k. The shorter distance favours his talents.
Jakob was in WR shape just last WINTER! I believe he will come back with a vengeance. His EGO which has always been healthy all his life took a beating last summer. I almost compare this two when Mary Decker-Slaney failed in 1984 after beating the world in the 83 world champs. After that injury and failure at the 84 Olympics, she came back in 85 with a vengeance and one of the greatest middle distance campaigns in his history of women's distance running. I believe Jakob will have one of those seasons like RONO 1978 or Coe 1979.
I meant if he breaks the WR by .01 that is just as much of a real world record than if he broke it by 3 seconds. Your post seems to be diminishing the performance if he doesn't destroy the WR.
Formally and officially you are of course correct. But if Jakob narrowly beats the record because he has better pacing and conditions there will always be an asterisk behind that WR in my eyes (And maybe in Jakob’s as well..?).