4:05 is the time needed to get into 95% of D1 teams.
What HS mile time would get you onto 95% of D1 teams?
College Running
D1
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4:20-4:30 won't get aid. And D3 schools have no scholarships anyway.
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This mile time should do it wrote:
4:05 is the time needed to get into 95% of D1 teams.
The age and other PRs of the person matter, but it's probably between 4:05 and 4:10 for sure.
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Slow Bro wrote:
The Imperative Voice Real10 wrote:
this is a silly discussion. first, dad pretends it's not his goal, it's his kid's, even though funny dad is the one asking about what his kid's dream would get him.
second, here's reality. my current home of texas. 2 kids made 405 in all grades in all classes in public and private last year. 2. none did in the regular season. in the regular season it was 407-409 that led the state. and this is not some scrub TF state. and if you aren't that fast the fastest programs aren't returning your emails. and almost no one can do it. hence me saying it's "freaks." it's god gifted that specific kid plus they work out like mad.
the 2 kids i just mentioned who broke 405, were running 415 and 418 as HS frosh. one of them was running 423 in junior high. maybe you think your kid is precocious. you don't live in a hotbed.*** that's actually good for a junior high kid.
so your kid could do everything right and odds are he plateaus 420-440 like most kids. if he's north of 430 maybe some d1 interest. if not, lower divisions.
most areas, 425-430 wins your state progression meet and sends you to the next step. 440 to score points. 445 maybe wins JV. your kid, my guess, more like 5. which is more like the varsity/JV dividing line. most people these goals suffice.
***i stopped doing LJ as a kid because i was bored of doing 18'6" in 7th grade and finishing 6th at meets. only when i saw the broader world did i realize most places that's a good jump. but it's those sort of kids you're up against for elite TF slots and scholarships.
Not sure how many times I've stated in this thread already that I'm not counting on or expecting my kid to become a world-beater. And that I'm trying to temper his expectations but not kill his dreams.
I was just curious about where things line up in terms of scholarship and NIL $ because I literally had no clue.
I think my kid prioritizes going to a good school and getting a good education over being some kind of running star. But the reality is that if he wants to go outside of state schools, it's going to cost money that we can't afford, and he won't be eligible for subsidized loans. I mean, my alma mater costs like $85k/year all-in now. We have two kids. We can't spend $300k+ on each of them for college! And I personally think it would be foolish to take on well over 6 figures of unsubsidized student loans unless you're going to med school and pretty committed to actually becoming a doctor.
If he ends up being the kind of kid who even goes 4:20-4:30 and that can result in SOME kind of aid at a D2/D3 solid academic school, I'm sure he'd take that in a heartbeat.
But again, he's only 14 and is just getting started.
Even then, let's say he's 4:25. That would pretty much be dead last in the UAA. NYU alone had six kids run that last year, as did CMU. Said another way, a 4:25 (probably) isn't getting you aid, and it isn't getting you preferred admission. Not at those schools.
I'd love to know what solid D2 schools you have in mind, because from what I know, D2 is pretty much an academic wasteland.
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Those guys were from sophomores to seniors and the times I posted were all from OSU and were all pr's, meaning that they were significantly slower than 4:05-4:11 in high school, yet were running track and xc (this year even) at OSU. It may be a bit of a trap to point to current team times, see that one's kid is running better, and think that means coach will take him. However, they would have been cut from the team if it were necessary. Recall that this team has 7-10 truly top flight collegians at any given time. At OSU Preview this year, they had no less than 12 guys running 5k xc for OSU (attached, in other words) from 15:05 to 16:26, including a number of the guys I indicated. At Cowboy Jamboree, they had four top guys running 23:33 to 23:53, but then they also had 4 guys with similar stats to what I mentioned running in the 24s and 7-8 more guys running in the 25s and low 26s. So, there are plenty of non-blue chippers on the roster still.
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Slow Bro wrote:
Have a freshman in high school who's extremely motivated and seems to be decently talented.
It looks like the very top schools west coast schools like Oregon, Stanford, etc... would likely take a kid who's around 4:05.
Would there be significant scholarship dollars at that level?
What about the ~4:10-4:20 range? Are there D1 schools that would offer money at that level?
And take into account the shoes, the 4:05 you are talking about would be 4:15 or slower in Paavo Nurmi's day.
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close enough wrote:
This mile time should do it wrote:
4:05 is the time needed to get into 95% of D1 teams.
The age and other PRs of the person matter, but it's probably between 4:05 and 4:10 for sure.
True, but the question was only about someones mile time and nothing else.
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Off the top of my head, some recent signings from around here:
4:06 mile, state xc champ and 2 mile champ- UNC (best xc recruit in the state in his class)
4:07 mile, state xc champ and 2 mile champ-Stanford (best xc recruit in his class in state)
4:10 mile, state runner up x2-Minnesota (already their 2-3 best xc guy as a soph)
4:16 mile, 9:20 2 mile, 15-20th at state, Minnesota (walk-on, not scoring)
4:26 mile, 1:58 800, D3 school with good academics, already scoring in XC meets
Look at rosters and high school PR's. Too early to be thinking about specific schools and scholarship $. Stuff may change in 3 years anyway!
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Track/ cross country is a mess when it comes to scholarships. There is no one time that will get you in everywhere. I bet almost 75% of schools in DI do not have a distance athlete on roster on a full scholarship (especially a domestic kid).
Many schools focus on one event group. A sprinter isn’t going to get a full at CU, I’d say 2/3 of schools don’t pole vault! Some schools only sprint (look at USC women’s XC losing to a middle school squad.
Tell your kid to be top 25 nationally in an event their junior year BUT have a 4.0 and great test scores. Good grades help you get on any time and you get academic money
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If you don't believe sub 4 in HS gets you onto every team, you are mistaken.
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skoal bro wrote:
Top schools have multiple guys running 3:55-3:58. They don't give scholarships for 4:05. They may not even have a spot for a 4:05 due to roster limits.
That's like 5 total schools....
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North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Washington
Georgetown
OK State
Boston College
Oregon
Nau
Cal Poly
Princeton
New Mexico
Montana State
BU
Colorado
Arkansas
Iowa State
Cornell
Harvard
BYU
Wisconsin
Michigan
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Running is weird because it's one of the easiest sports to compare athletes, everyone has a time in a standard distance. Contrast this with something like football where someone has to see your highlight reel to evaluate how good you are.
And yet it isn't that simple. If you do a deeper analysis of the rosters of the top schools, the profile of their rosters are quite different. I've started doing this for my kid, who will start reaching out to schools after XC. Without getting too lengthy I'll describe some of my methodology and some things I've noticed so far:
First I started by going to athletic.net and filtering the top 100 seniors last year in each event (800, 1600, 3200, XC). Make a list in Excel. Go down the list and google everyone to find out where they committed. Now you can get some kind of idea how fast you need to be in Event X to be in the ballpark of where School Y recruits. Not surprisingly, you don't really see anyone below the top 50 going to Stanford. One of my daughter's top academic choices is Washington. What is fascinating is that Washington did not have anyone in the top 100 from any of the distance events in 2025 commit there (on the women's side). If you go look at their recruiting class, all of their incoming athletes were transfer portal or foreign recruits. No one from the US top 100.
Next, make a lengthy list of target schools and start looking at the athletic.net profile of every one of their rostered athletes. You will notice patterns. For instance, there are only 3 women out of 15 on Stanford's roster who were slower than 2:10 for 800m in high school (I couldn't find data for 3 of their foreign recruits), obviously they prioritize girls with speed (is anyone surprised with JJ Clark as head coach?). Other schools prioritize excellence at other distances.
Also, does the school develop athletes, or recruit already developed athletes? If people are coming in and getting dramatically better after a couple years, you might be able to come in with a slower PR. Other schools only bring in the finished product and aren't willing to gamble on someone who is close but not quite there. You can see this in the roster data.
Like anything else, if you put the work in, you will find the best fit for your kid.
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Wait, that is way more than 5 teams and you even missed a few. Maybe he thought we were talking about 25 years ago. Seems like most people are when it comes to recruiting and scholarships.
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I remember when my high school rival was able to walk on to the championship Syracuse team era and got to compete in quite a number of races. His best PR was a 4:20, was it really like that back then where you could walk on to virtually every team with a 4:18-4:22? I'm hearing 4:12-4:15 getting ignored now basically at every D1.
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New ncaa landscape wrote:
Good mile programs are no longer paying serious money based on a 4:05-15 PR. The ones that will pay money for that are not programs that will develop you well. NCAA is now inflated with Africans who are 30 years old, and Europeans who have been training professionally since 13 years old.
as an American if you want to develop and get scholarship money, train to run DI level recruiting times, and then go to one of the top ten DII programs. If you develop into a 3:55 or faster, you can always transfer to a powerhouse DI as a junior. But if you don’t, you’ll have more fun running DII and you’ll have gotten a heavily discounted college education.The invading East-Africans seem to focus on 5/10/XC and not 1500/mile. Has there ever been a runner that ran 3:55 or faster in D-2, and subsequently transferred to a D-1 school?
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There is a lot of overlap in the quality of programs between different divisions. The linked image is over simplified, but you get the idea.
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To put it another way, outside the P4, would you rather go to Marian or Western Illinois?
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sub 4:04 as a JR based on experience and it's still not much.
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