Never happens. Every year I see posters here saying Mantz is going to run 2:03 or 2:04 and he ends up running 2:07:47. Scott Fauble saying the same stuff - "I am in 2:05 shape" and he runs 2:10.
Except not once have I seen someone say Mantz is in 2:03 shape and certainly not in 2023 in his third ever attempt. He has run 2:05:08 at Boston. With the slight headwind this year, it was legitimate, a mere 23 seconds behind a 2:02:4x guy from Chicago.
Mantz has run huge PRs, twice, over the half marathon and another huge PR over 20k a mere month ago. He’s much fitter than in years past. And even Eyestone is indicating this.
We will see. The only thing that might derail him is getting caught up in the atmosphere and going out way too fast, only to be stuck running the solo, wind-swept final miles alone. Which is why I hope he comes through halfway in 1:02:15ish…
This part is what is so funny to me. Mantz has not said, to my recollection, that he was going to break the American record on any race prior to now. The earliest comment of that nature was, at the end of 2024, Clayton Young, speaking for both himself and Conner, said we want to try to break the AR record in 2025. Conner also alluded to it in an interview around the same time but he used more couched language.
2:05:38 is not fast in 2025, not with the shoes we have today. The record is going down on Sunday. But it's been funny to me to see all the doubters, who have no real basis for their doubt, other than that they've been so battered from years of seeing Ryan Hall, Galen Rupp, and Scott Fauble not break the AR. That they just have this belief that no American will ever run mid-2:05. No one should be surprised, some people genuinely will be.
Except not once have I seen someone say Mantz is in 2:03 shape and certainly not in 2023 in his third ever attempt. He has run 2:05:08 at Boston. With the slight headwind this year, it was legitimate, a mere 23 seconds behind a 2:02:4x guy from Chicago.
Mantz has run huge PRs, twice, over the half marathon and another huge PR over 20k a mere month ago. He’s much fitter than in years past. And even Eyestone is indicating this.
We will see. The only thing that might derail him is getting caught up in the atmosphere and going out way too fast, only to be stuck running the solo, wind-swept final miles alone. Which is why I hope he comes through halfway in 1:02:15ish…
This part is what is so funny to me. Mantz has not said, to my recollection, that he was going to break the American record on any race prior to now. The earliest comment of that nature was, at the end of 2024, Clayton Young, speaking for both himself and Conner, said we want to try to break the AR record in 2025. Conner also alluded to it in an interview around the same time but he used more couched language.
2:05:38 is not fast in 2025, not with the shoes we have today. The record is going down on Sunday. But it's been funny to me to see all the doubters, who have no real basis for their doubt, other than that they've been so battered from years of seeing Ryan Hall, Galen Rupp, and Scott Fauble not break the AR. That they just have this belief that no American will ever run mid-2:05. No one should be surprised, some people genuinely will be.
The Super shoes have been around for awhile now. Mantz with the Super shoes at Chicago has only run 2:07:47. So Sunday he is going to run that much faster?
This part is what is so funny to me. Mantz has not said, to my recollection, that he was going to break the American record on any race prior to now. The earliest comment of that nature was, at the end of 2024, Clayton Young, speaking for both himself and Conner, said we want to try to break the AR record in 2025. Conner also alluded to it in an interview around the same time but he used more couched language.
2:05:38 is not fast in 2025, not with the shoes we have today. The record is going down on Sunday. But it's been funny to me to see all the doubters, who have no real basis for their doubt, other than that they've been so battered from years of seeing Ryan Hall, Galen Rupp, and Scott Fauble not break the AR. That they just have this belief that no American will ever run mid-2:05. No one should be surprised, some people genuinely will be.
The Super shoes have been around for awhile now. Mantz with the Super shoes at Chicago has only run 2:07:47. So Sunday he is going to run that much faster?
Yes, and no one will have seen it coming. It'll be completely out of the blue, a shock and awe surprise.
In 2023, Conner ran the Houston Half in 1:01:12. In 2025, he ran it in 59:17.
In 2023, Conner ran Boston in 2:10:25. In 2025, he ran it in 2:05:08.
In 2023, Conner ran Beach to Beacon in 27:58. In 2025, he ran it in 27:26.
In 2023, Conner ran New Haven 20k Champs in 59:16. In 2025, he ran it in 56:16.
Marathoning is a sport where athletes often peak in their early-mid 30s. Conner was 26 in 2023, is 28 now.
So the ONLY logical conclusion from all this evidence is that he's going to go out and run another 2:07 high in Chicago this year. Any other outcome would be a stunning surprise.
The Super shoes have been around for awhile now. Mantz with the Super shoes at Chicago has only run 2:07:47. So Sunday he is going to run that much faster?
Yes, and no one will have seen it coming. It'll be completely out of the blue, a shock and awe surprise.
In 2023, Conner ran the Houston Half in 1:01:12. In 2025, he ran it in 59:17.
In 2023, Conner ran Boston in 2:10:25. In 2025, he ran it in 2:05:08.
In 2023, Conner ran Beach to Beacon in 27:58. In 2025, he ran it in 27:26.
In 2023, Conner ran New Haven 20k Champs in 59:16. In 2025, he ran it in 56:16.
Marathoning is a sport where athletes often peak in their early-mid 30s. Conner was 26 in 2023, is 28 now.
So the ONLY logical conclusion from all this evidence is that he's going to go out and run another 2:07 high in Chicago this year. Any other outcome would be a stunning surprise.
Pretty much.
It’s amazing how many people on a running site are so… uneducated about running. Mantz posts all his training on Strava in addition to race results. If you know anything about running, Mantz has to have a pretty bad day to NOT get the AR. But of course, no race is guaranteed, and people have bad days. But 9/10 times, he’s getting the American record.. and it won’t be particularly close. Will he run 2:03? It’s within reason, but that more depends on the rest of the race. If the leaders go out ahead in something like 60:30-61:00 (or heck, maybe faster), Mantz likely won’t be in the lead group. So he’d probably be closer to 61:45-62:00 at halfway and run a lot of the last 8-10 miles by himself which makes it hard to negative split, or dead-even split, to run 2:03 high. So 2:04 mid is probably most likely. Maybe the leaders only go out in 61:30 and Mantz is with them and there’s another few guys hanging on for 2:03 (after a massive move) that Mantz can battle with and results in the 2:03 mid to high.
The fastest time on a record-eligible course by a man not of recent African ancestry or PED allegations is 2:04:56. That seems very doable. 2:05:38 seems like a done deal for me.
Yes, and no one will have seen it coming. It'll be completely out of the blue, a shock and awe surprise.
In 2023, Conner ran the Houston Half in 1:01:12. In 2025, he ran it in 59:17.
In 2023, Conner ran Boston in 2:10:25. In 2025, he ran it in 2:05:08.
In 2023, Conner ran Beach to Beacon in 27:58. In 2025, he ran it in 27:26.
In 2023, Conner ran New Haven 20k Champs in 59:16. In 2025, he ran it in 56:16.
Marathoning is a sport where athletes often peak in their early-mid 30s. Conner was 26 in 2023, is 28 now.
So the ONLY logical conclusion from all this evidence is that he's going to go out and run another 2:07 high in Chicago this year. Any other outcome would be a stunning surprise.
Pretty much.
It’s amazing how many people on a running site are so… uneducated about running. Mantz posts all his training on Strava in addition to race results. If you know anything about running, Mantz has to have a pretty bad day to NOT get the AR. But of course, no race is guaranteed, and people have bad days. But 9/10 times, he’s getting the American record.. and it won’t be particularly close. Will he run 2:03? It’s within reason, but that more depends on the rest of the race. If the leaders go out ahead in something like 60:30-61:00 (or heck, maybe faster), Mantz likely won’t be in the lead group. So he’d probably be closer to 61:45-62:00 at halfway and run a lot of the last 8-10 miles by himself which makes it hard to negative split, or dead-even split, to run 2:03 high. So 2:04 mid is probably most likely. Maybe the leaders only go out in 61:30 and Mantz is with them and there’s another few guys hanging on for 2:03 (after a massive move) that Mantz can battle with and results in the 2:03 mid to high.
Laughable I don’t think this kid makes it past 35km and will crawl to the finish line in a daze in 2:07
The fastest time on a record-eligible course by a man not of recent African ancestry or PED allegations is 2:04:56. That seems very doable. 2:05:38 seems like a done deal for me.
If the weather cooperates, officially predicting 2:04:45 for Mantz. Just for the hell of it.
Just an fYI - Was recently rewatching Steve Jones' runs in Chicago '84 and '85 while in the gym - was reminded of what the old "America's Marathon" course looked like. Noting that, while the NYC course today isn't vastly different than the one that Salazar, Waitz and Dixon ran on, and obviously the same with Boston, Chicago's course is NOT the same.
How many 27:25 guys have the endurance to run 59:17 on a windy day? Also he's matched that on the roads so what are we even doing here. What's the marathon potential for a 59-low guy on a good weather day on a flat course like Chicago? Is it not 2:03:xx? That's the right question to be asking. I think the forecast is trending just a little warmer than it was originally looking. I think he'll land in the 2:04:30-2:05:30 range if he gets it right on the day. He should go out right @ AR pace. Chicago is fast but some turns and the crowd support drops off after halfway. Wind usually is from the north which means closing miles likely into the wind when you're likely running alone. Hopefully he has a group to run in and that group sticks together deeper & deeper into the race.
Jacob Kiplimo ran 56:42 and Mantz has run 59 low. You are saying they should run about the same marathon?
That's actually not what I'm saying at all. I'm not trying to pull one example that fits my argument/narrative & represent it as a whole.
What I am very clearly saying is that 59-low half marathoners have marathon potential right around the current American record.
I said nothing remotely controversial & you gave me the half marathon WR holder as a comparison point to what exactly? Kiplimo has 2:01 potential. Mantz still has AR potential. Of the 15 guys who have broken 2:05 this year, their half PBs = 1x 56, 1x 57, 3x 58, 6x 59, 2x 60, 2x no result. So 56 & 57 are obviously rare. 3x 58-6x 59-2x 60 is where most fall. Mantz is on the low-end of 59. Maybe he doesn't run the time on Sunday or run particularly close. The point is that the potential is there. It could take a few tries, but I would be willing to bet that he'll end up with a PB faster than the current AR when his career comes to an end.
The Super shoes have been around for awhile now. Mantz with the Super shoes at Chicago has only run 2:07:47. So Sunday he is going to run that much faster?
Yes, and no one will have seen it coming. It'll be completely out of the blue, a shock and awe surprise.
In 2023, Conner ran the Houston Half in 1:01:12. In 2025, he ran it in 59:17.
In 2023, Conner ran Boston in 2:10:25. In 2025, he ran it in 2:05:08.
In 2023, Conner ran Beach to Beacon in 27:58. In 2025, he ran it in 27:26.
In 2023, Conner ran New Haven 20k Champs in 59:16. In 2025, he ran it in 56:16.
Marathoning is a sport where athletes often peak in their early-mid 30s. Conner was 26 in 2023, is 28 now.
So the ONLY logical conclusion from all this evidence is that he's going to go out and run another 2:07 high in Chicago this year. Any other outcome would be a stunning surprise.
These comparisons are great and all, but ultimately Mantz is still a 59 guy. The best comparables are what 59 guys are running in the full right now. I do think Mantz will get the American record but he won't decimate it.
Something that doesn't fill me with joy is hearing basically all the EE athletes come out with negative split plans.
And here, I'm not enough of a marathon statistician. I don't know what the rate of negative splits in Chicago typically is. But my impression is that negative splits all around is typically not a great strategy. Absolutely, I defer to EE, who has forgotten more about marathoning than I and everyone I know will ever know, combined.
But hearing all the interviews. Conner will go 62 through half, plan to negative split. Casey 64, plan to negative split. Creed wants to go out in 64.5, hope to negative split. Emily Venters planning to negative split. Like, to me that just feels really ambitious.
There's a part of me that thinks that this is no big deal in that, EE usually puts out conservative race plans that he expects his athletes to disobey. So I think that Conner is almost certainly going to go through half in less than 62 because he's just that type of guy, and because Titus Cheruiyot can probably run a 61 high, and if he can't I trust Mantz to ditch him.
I'm really worried that Casey Clinger is going to slow down if Jared Ward doesn't keep up the pace. I really liked Casey's interview before the race because he acknowledged that he didn't perform how he wanted to on 20k champs, and he attributed that to tired legs in the middle of a marathon build, which I think is totally reasonable, and he feels the taper has been going well. But if Jared Ward starts to struggle around miles 10-12, I think he absolutely has to go with Ryan Ford instead of his pacer.
Emily Venters will have at least her one designated full race male pacer so I'm not concerned with that, but I also am very skeptical that Jared will be able to bring her home on the back half like they're currently planning.
Yes, and no one will have seen it coming. It'll be completely out of the blue, a shock and awe surprise.
In 2023, Conner ran the Houston Half in 1:01:12. In 2025, he ran it in 59:17.
In 2023, Conner ran Boston in 2:10:25. In 2025, he ran it in 2:05:08.
In 2023, Conner ran Beach to Beacon in 27:58. In 2025, he ran it in 27:26.
In 2023, Conner ran New Haven 20k Champs in 59:16. In 2025, he ran it in 56:16.
Marathoning is a sport where athletes often peak in their early-mid 30s. Conner was 26 in 2023, is 28 now.
So the ONLY logical conclusion from all this evidence is that he's going to go out and run another 2:07 high in Chicago this year. Any other outcome would be a stunning surprise.
These comparisons are great and all, but ultimately Mantz is still a 59 guy. The best comparables are what 59 guys are running in the full right now. I do think Mantz will get the American record but he won't decimate it.
I love the dude but 2:03 is crazy talk.
My prediction was posted above, in the link. I'm not going to deviate from it at this point. My official prediction as of when I wrote my long race thoughts a couple days ago was 2:04:30-2:04:35.