Some recent content for Conner's build to Chicago dropped that I thought was interesting.
Some key points for me. Conner is planning to go out in 62, paced by Titus Cheruiyot, and if he runs in the 2:03 range it'll be a negative split. For me, that would downward revise my time prediction a bit, just because I don't think negative splitting a marathon is easy, I think if you plan to go out in 62 then you'll probably end up around mid-high 2:04s. So something like 2:04:30, 2:04:35. It's possible that Conner also pushes Titus to go a bit faster, maybe in the 61:45 range, if he's feeling good, that would be within Conner's character for sure. In my opinion, the AR is absolutely going down, the question is just by how much. I think it will go down by a minute, because I think Conner has that dawg in him. But I don't think it goes down by much more than a minute, I really do think that 2:04:30-2:04:35 range is what we're looking at.
A lot of other runners have said they'll be trying to run fast, including Rory Linkletter, who will be going for the Canadian world record. Rory is only 29 so, even though he's been around the world of marathoning for a while, he's still got some decent legs. I don't think he gets it. I think he can get somewhere in the 2:06s.
Jared Ward will be pacing Casey Clinger. Conner really tried to hype of Jared's fitness but this worries me a little bit, because I'm not sure that Jared Ward can run 64 through half, and I am very confident he can't run 63 through half. Conner hyped up Casey in interviews, saying that he's right there with him in workouts, which is probably true, but workouts and a marathon are different. I'm really worried that Casey is going to go with Jared and Jared is going to have a really hard time running a 64. In the FloTrack Longrun, Casey stayed with Conner and Clayton through the first pickup 4:42, but by the end of the second 4:39 he was still visible in the shot but he was dropped, he probably ran that in around 4:46-4:48. By 2.5 miles he was out of the frame. This seems consistent with their other long runs. That, his disappointing 20k Champs performance, being paced by Jared Ward, I'm fearful Lenny's debut record (2:07:56) will hold. If Casey gets it, it'll be like 2:07:50. You hope for the best but I think the most realistic outcome may be 2:08 high.
Conner gave a big vote of confidence to Creed Thompson in the FloTrack workout, saying that Creed was running workouts in a lot of the times that Conner would run them back when he was at 2:07 guy. I think this is probably true, but again short track-style workouts are different from the marathon. In the Clayton Young docuseries, Ed Eyestone can be heard telling Creed and Aidan Troutner that their goal pace is going to be 4:55. Which would put them around 2:08:50s. They are not going to be able to hold that, I don't think they have the strength to do that. But, I think they can hold it long enough, Creed I'm still hopeful ends up running in the 2:09s, maybe 2:09 high, debuts sub 2:10. Which, that would be huge. Alex Maier debuted in Chicago 2:11 mid. Ryan Ford debuted in NYC, harder course obviously, 2:11 low. Those are two of your best US marathon prospects right there, if Creed can debut at 22 yo under 2:10, it puts him right at the top of the sport in the US.