I'm tired of threads being derailed by poorly thought out drug accusations.
Think about this logically. If Hocker is able to dope and get away with it, why wouldn't he dope all season and win everything. The idea that someone peaks when it matters most is a sign they most definitely aren't doping. We've seen his form improving all season long.
3:30 to 3:27 in the span of a month textbook suspicious. Hilarious.
I don’t think there’s a PED that results in a 3 second bump in 30 days. Does it work for only 30 days or is there a second improvement over the next 30?
Is Laros capable of a 3:27.65 with closing splits of 26.3 and 13.0? (Like Hocker did last year)
AND
Is Hocker capable of a 3:29.20 with closing splits of 25.9 and 12.5? (Like Laros did today)
A more interesting question: Is Hocker capable of closing a 3:27.65 with 26.3 and 13.0 again? He has a great kick but has never come remotely close to his Paris performance, before or since.
Most under the radar contender. I give Koech the same winning odds as Hocker or Laros.
He’s only run the event twice. One of them with a bum hamstring.
And his bum hamstring has been even more bum. Why in the world would we think an also-ran in the 800 would win the WC gold in the 1500 when he can't train for it?
Because he won the USA’s 1500 in a meet record with a 25.7 last 200.
That's the most plausible strategy for victory and would be similar to how Paris went.
Laros is the the favorite at this point and Cole is perhaps the only competitor that can out kick him on the home stretch.
If someone like Kerr tries to take it with 300-400 to go, Hocker should still stay patient and react to what Laros does.
Gotta agree with the premise. Who better to follow? What strategy is better? And even if Hocker can't come around in the stretch, can he follow in the wake and get a medal? Even as the Olympic Champion, I think that a lot of us will be surprised if Hocker medals and would count that as a great result.
And as some have suggested, Laros should either close off the rail or stay inside enough to clog up the rail with a runner that he is passing. Easier to type than to do, of course.
Just putting it out there that you CAN win a world title basing your entire race plan on keying off the perceived best guy.
Kerr did it in 2023
Wightman seemingly did it in 2022
Kerr did it in 2024. It "worked" to beat Jakob but took an all-time great performance from someone else to cost him the win. He still earned a silver medal with this strategy.
Obvious difference here from those years was everyone knowing that Jakob was going to make it fast. However, the principal stands as a feasible strategy that sometimes works.
Is Laros capable of a 3:27.65 with closing splits of 26.3 and 13.0? (Like Hocker did last year)
AND
Is Hocker capable of a 3:29.20 with closing splits of 25.9 and 12.5? (Like Laros did today)
Remember, "IF" Hocker can reproduce the fitness of that race, that 13.0 was hampered by being boxed in. Maybe not a full 0.5, but he definitely could have shaved off a few tenths with a cleaner path on the entire home stretch.
Kerr, Laros, Koech, Jacob all know exactly what Hocker is going to do. They all know that once they round the final bend, their main threat will be on the inside rail.
He is not going to get the same opening.
Nobody thinks about that. The rail is always open in horse racing and likewise in track. For whatever reason it happens in longer races rather than shorter ones. A 6 furlong race in horse racing doesn't have the same drift out as races of 1 1/8 miles and up, and likewise in track the 800 remains more loyal to the rail than 1500 and up.
It's the reason 1500 guys like Kerr get in trouble down the stretch at 800. They don't account for the distance difference and therefore the situational variance down the stretch.
The famous jockey Calvin Bo-rail said many times that his rail skimming tactics worked best at classic distances because those distances are seldom run and therefore the other jockeys didn't anticipate their horses drifting out late.
Just like Paris, Hocker faces greater risk of getting blocked on the rail early in the stretch than during the final meters. It only happens at 1500 final meters if there are a wall of guys side by side.
Just putting it out there that you CAN win a world title basing your entire race plan on keying off the perceived best guy.
Kerr did it in 2023
Wightman seemingly did it in 2022
Kerr did it in 2024. It "worked" to beat Jakob but took an all-time great performance from someone else to cost him the win. He still earned a silver medal with this strategy.
Obvious difference here from those years was everyone knowing that Jakob was going to make it fast. However, the principal stands as a feasible strategy that sometimes works.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen did it himself in 2021, following and out kicking Timothy Cheruiyot.
hocker and laros appear capable of sub 25 200m and 12 100m flat in a 332 race.
regarding strength on paper it is a toss up, with laros 729 3000m seldom run, cross coubtry win, 59 half marathon and 5 k win against top 5 in the world.
laro and hocker appear to be peaking perfectly.
laros is running in the style of ovett, ehich is a very good thing.
hocker tends to lose cobtact in the back stretch, saving it for the stretch.
i have to favor laros, his kick will be from 150 out and driving, without the letup typical of everyone in the last 50 m.
Kerr can go from 250m out and see what the boys are made of,
its going to be tough.
id like to see a fit jacob sit and kick on kerr, in a 327,race, which wont happen unless the africans go nuts, which sometimes they do.
3:30 to 3:27 in the span of a month textbook suspicious. Hilarious.
I don’t think there’s a PED that results in a 3 second bump in 30 days. Does it work for only 30 days or is there a second improvement over the next 30?
No. Rule No. 1 is respect the competition. That means Hocker has focus on all the contenders. Focusing solely on one opponent cost Kerr the gold medal last year.
Is Laros capable of a 3:27.65 with closing splits of 26.3 and 13.0? (Like Hocker did last year)
AND
Is Hocker capable of a 3:29.20 with closing splits of 25.9 and 12.5? (Like Laros did today)
A more interesting question: Is Hocker capable of closing a 3:27.65 with 26.3 and 13.0 again? He has a great kick but has never come remotely close to his Paris performance, before or since.
That, and other speculation, is what makes watching these races so much fun.
Laros has run 1:44 and might actually be faster than Hocker, but his 3000/5000m history indicates Hocker is a little stronger. For Hocker to outkick Laros, it needs to be a hot pace and maybe Hocker will take it from further out to wear down Laros.
That’s not how a kick works universally. Faster speed in a shorter distance doesn’t equal an automatic better kick.
A kick is a combination of many factors: aerobic fitness, top end speed, acceleration, spring mechanics, which is why Hocker has been so successful with his
Tried to tell this to a guy at the track the other day and looked at me like I was crazy when I said “then why isn’t Hobbs or Habz Olympic champ if faster 800 means better kick?”
That’s not how a kick works universally. Faster speed in a shorter distance doesn’t equal an automatic better kick.
A kick is a combination of many factors: aerobic fitness, top end speed, acceleration, spring mechanics, which is why Hocker has been so successful with his
Tried to tell this to a guy at the track the other day and looked at me like I was crazy when I said “then why isn’t Hobbs or Habz Olympic champ if faster 800 means better kick?”
How do we know you aren’t crazy?
As for your question, speed and strength both play into a good kick. Hobbs has not yet shown the same prowess at 3000 and 5000m, as some of his 1500m competitors have.
If momentum alone didn't take the leader off the line on the last turn, trying to make guys on the outside have to run around them would, so Hocker's pretty safe as long as there is only one guy to beat on the inside. Laros won't be on the inside, because he does not want to waste his fitness on a potential box. I think Hocker does have 12.5 speed in a low 3:29 race, but we'll have to see. He has to put himself in that position.
I don’t think there’s a PED that results in a 3 second bump in 30 days. Does it work for only 30 days or is there a second improvement over the next 30?
Rojo is feeling anxious because he knows on paper Hocker’s performance is one of the most suspect ever. What’s the fast close ever in a 3:28 or faster race anyway? The guy didn’t just run a 3:27, he closed it in 53 seconds, always remember that detail.
By the way everybody on the board thought Hocker’s best and only chance at medaling not even winning. Hocker winning was not on a single person’s mind. Except me, I thought he’d have a chance winning some slow 3:33-3:35 race. But my fellow fans tell me to accept this random 3:27.
This. There is always a small openings presented. And Hocker is as good as anyone has ever been at accelerating into those openings. Maybe his greatest strength.
I think it’s more luck than a skill. Ingebrigtsen could have blocked him last year.
Ingebrigtsen did block him last year, which throttled his first kick significantly causing Hocker to slow then allowed Kerr to pass Hocker and Jakob on the outside. Then Hocker gunned the small gap on the rail that Jakob created to veer Kerr on the outside and Hocker still had enough twitch to accelerate again and storm the line. Honestly, I think Hocker was going to run away with that gold by another half second had his acceleration not been blocked (fairly) by Inge with about 110m to go. Definitely the best man that day, which is what I think it will come down to again in Tokyo. There are so many physio-psycho-emotional even immunologic influences that can influence any of the top guys plus or minus a second on the day... and that's ultimately going to determine the winner with this talented a field. Who's going to have the best day...
Don’t forget Jonah Koech, who closed a 3:30.17 in 25.7 and 12.5 a month ago. And, of course, we can’t ignore the 3:26 guy, even if he hasn’t raced since indoor.
