Nuguse will run 3:26 tomorrow

I'd bet my life savings he runs 3:26 before any other American

You mean BALLSSS. I have enough manhood to boldly make a prediction, be wrong and be ok with it. As critical as I've been of Hocker, and Jakob , I don't circle back to call people a clown when they run poorly.

Kerr, Laros, a koech is the world's podium in order. Throwing you into the fire as well, what's your prediction?

Seek therapy

How are we feeling about this?

It's not like you posted "Nuguse has run very fast, I believe he is fit, and could possibly run 3:26 and win the DL Final and qualify for world champs". Instead, you try to sound like you know what you're talking about by regurgitating his PB's, and then make an absurd prediction of him running a near world record time of 3:26.

Ballsss---Really!!! I didn't know that making absurd uniformed predictions equated to BALLSSSS. Since this is your take let me make some predictions:

Drew Hunter sets the 10k world record next year.

Jacob runs 3:23 1500 at the World Champs next month.

Cole Hocker runs 3:22 1500 next summer.

Grant Fisher runs 12:25 5k at the world Champs next month.

Wow I felt my BALLSSS growing as I typed out these ridiculous predictions. The fact that you equate BALLSSS with making these kinds of predictions alludes to the obvious--You have no BALLSSS!!!

Lol I just said what I thought it would take to win. Nothing more

I think you're putting way too much weight on my predictions, it's just a prediction. You are 100% wrong about uninformed 🥱🤣🤣🤣. I always elaborate and State my reasoning . I'm wrong weekly on this site as many others are as well. If I was that confident in my predictions, I'd actually be putting money on this 😂. If I'm wrong I'm wrong but it's easy for people to just jump on here and say he won't win or not predict the time.

So yes it does take more balls to predict the time and a place rather than just react to someone being wrong. Not remotely the same thing 👋

Now you're seriously walking back what you posted. No issue with making predictions, we all do it, but BOLDLY making predictions with little or no credible knowledge to support it makes you look like an idiot. As I replied in my post, throwing out Yared's PB's and accomplishments doesn't indicate you have any "ground breaking" insight for you to predict he'll run 3:26. Guessing while keeping your fingers crossed doesn't take Ballsss, anyone can do that. Adding some insight with regard to pacing, conditions, competition, etc...is useful information which in most cases allows for a viable prediction.

By the way, how did it feel when Yared BARELY missed your "prediction" by 6 places and 4 seconds??? Kinda of a BALLSSS CRUSHER I'm guessin'. :(

I mean in fairness the stated reasoning of him having run 3.43 (that was 2 years ago) and 3.46 for a mile indoors (which was the beginning of Feb) was in hindsight a little overly optimistic yeah?

Since that 3.46 for a mile he ran a series of underwhelming GST races - underwhelming in the sense that he while he wasn't running poorly per se (he was second in the 1500m in both Kingston and Miramar), he wasn't exactly running great - capped off by getting his doors blown off in the Philly race. And unlike Cole Hocker who genuinely appeared to be training through those months and not giving two f-s about the races, it seemed like Yared and Dathan had no problem hammering track workouts as early as the end of March to get ready for it. Since that finished he ran a gutsy mile at Pre which is where it unfortunately seemed like we saw the tank metaphorically empty (almost for the entire season) in front of our eyes in the final 150m. We all know what happened at USA's and even though he won in Silesia in what turned out to be a strangely poor race, that was more a function of guys imploding around him vs him dominating a field like he has the ability to.

Why on earth he ran Brussels is simply beyond me and many others. For a guy that has been basically non-stop since the beginning of Feb, that just seemed unnecessarily idiotic (for what, 4k prizemoney and 2k appearance cash?) and low and behold come Zurich he looked hunched and uneasy after even 1000m and the rest is history. Your Olympic bronze medallist who seemed to have figured it out now watches the world champs from his couch like the rest of us weasels.

I think the point, respectfully, some others are trying to make is that there was really nothing at all that pointed to 3.26 - right? For that to be the case I think Silesia would have had to have been a last lap domination winning in 3.32 low, a win in Brussels in 3.28 something and then maybe you're like "this guy and his coach really did have a clue the whole time and USA's was really a complete anomaly". As it turned out the result in Zurich was kind of exactly what this season has pointed to. So in that respect you really could have said anything about Zurich, sub 3.24 held about as much plausibility as sub 3.27 to be honest. But all good, appreciate the contributions.

I somewhat agree or mostly agree with all of this. It doesn’t even get at why a 3:26 is crazily improbable even if he was in 3:26 shape - he’s not hammering races from the front right now. If a 3:26 was going to happen it’d be because Yared or someone else would latch on a really hot pace. But that’s not how Yared is running after USAs went south/Pre he implided late. So it was on Habz who already has run his career PB in all likelihood. He didn’t slow it down a ton but he didn’t attack for time either. P. Koech wasn’t going to be the one to push either from earlier than 300 after how Brussels went. Laros and the Cheruiyots (rightfully) are backing their kicks currently. It was never gonna be faster than a 3:29 race unless Jakob had been allowed to run.

But the other salient thing we are forgetting in all of this - how hard it still is to run under 3.27.0

I get it, all these 3.29's and low 3.30's from seemingly every half decent guy on the circuit, but this is not a situation where the entire sport is jumping a level - the pinnacle and it's exclusivity is remaining intact, it's only the levels below getting closer.

Of the 4 men to run under 3.27.0 only one guy did it more than once. And this list includes a guy who I still think had pretty elite baseline talent (Kiprop) that was doped to his eyeballs and even he only did it once. And as has been discussed to death and strongly alluded to given the era, there might be a chance that Jakob is the only guy to have legitimately run under 3.27.0.

This club is damn hard to get into. A year ago when J.I ran his 3.26.73 the floodgates had supposedly opened and the WR was going to be a formality. 14 months on where are? Yeah he's been injured - that's because the work and training needed to run that fast is so difficult and hard on the body. There is a really good chance that Jakob never runs under 3.27 again depending on how long you think his peak window is open and when it started.

So this notion that Yared Nuguse would just bust down the door and join this club was about as quixotic a take possible and simply beyond plausible if we are totally honest.

Did you only somewhat agree we are all just weasels?

Oh I heartily agreed with that.