Rain forecast for Thursday (90%) and cool temps: 16-20 C (61 - 68 F)
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Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
midpackgal wrote:
I hope Hoey and Nuguse can pull it off but the 800 and 1500m look pretty deep. Not impossible for them to win but it’ll be tough.
Hoey was always going to face a monumental task ever after his Lausanne win. I think a large contributing factor to that was his concentration and focus in the conditions that maybe the rest of the field didn't have on that night, but probably will have in Zurich.
Nuguses worst case scenario was Laros running this race and he is. Because with the form Laros showed in Brussels I'm not sure what race scenario plays out where Laros isn't in good enough form to beat him. Like right now the only type of race I think Nuguse could beat him in was one well under 3.29 and probably closer to Yareds PR. Not only is he not in that shape anyway, DL finals traditionally aren't even won in under 3.30 - only one "final" has ever been in its history.
Most Finals don't have pacers, and 3:30 is the new 3:35....Nuguse can follow the pacers and make is a 3:28 race FTW.
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Heather Maclean, 4th at the USA trials and Hiltz's training teammate, must be delighted that Hiltz has peaced out from running the DL final when she had a legitimate shot of winning it.
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Spainflyer wrote:
Rain forecast for Thursday (90%) and cool temps: 16-20 C (61 - 68 F)
Weather is the great equalizer. Should through the races into chaos and give Goose and Hoey better shot at the win
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adidas stripes wrote:
Rain not in forecast for Zurich in 22h 29m!
That is true for Wednesday, but for the main events Thursday night, rain is in the forecast.
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Nuguse is one of the four top guys in the 1500m and he has won multiple DL's without Jakob, but Laros is looking very strong right now. Even beyond him, you have two guys who ran 3:27 this year in Habz and Phanuel Koech, so it is possible but tough.
Hoey is facing four guys who have run 1:41 in the past year. Three of those guys are looking very strong right now, Wanyonyi, Arop, and Sedjati--more and more reminiscent of Ramzi resurfacing just before championships. I assume he won't have a downpour to discourage the other guys this time, but Hoey definitely has a shot at this. The 800m is a crapshoot with strong fields. However, Wanyonyi looked the best all season until last race.
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Now I see that there is a 90% chance of rain and cool temps, I think Hoey's chances look a good deal better.
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ndxc02 wrote:
Weather is the great equalizer. Should through the races into chaos and give Goose and Hoey better shot at the win
I think Wanyonyi will be smarter if it is bad weather. Sieradzki will lay back in pacing and I could see a 50-flat lap or slower and I think Wanyonyi not getting drafting and going out too hard for the day sunk him as much as the rain.
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Don’t expect him to be competing for the win. After flying too close to the sun during his first year on the sauce, he has dialed way back, and it shows. He should never be in any All-Time 800m conversation.
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Under the radar... wrote:
I still think Addy Wiley has a solid chance of earning her trip to Tokyo here (I'm surprised her prospects weren't discussed on the LetsRun podcast along with those of Hoey and Nuguse).
If you look at the start list for her race: No Keely. Werro just ran 1:56 but she's only the Swiss wild card so can't win the DL, Wiley doesn't need to beat her. Duguma would be a major roadblock but she hasn't run since July 5 and actually withdrew from Lausanne, so she may well not be in good shape. Sekgodiso has a faster SB but slower PB and is likely in comparable shape. Admittedly, Hunter Bell is a major obvious difficulty and is surely the favorite, but she may have an off-race, doesn't need to stamp her ticket so won't have the same motivation, etc.
Duguma has now withdrawn and Maloney was added. Wiley was 0-3 against Duguma but is 4-1 against Maloney. Odds of her winning just went up.
Hunter Bell is the favorite. Werro is just so inconsistent. She has great races and poor races. Out of four Diamond League races she ran this year, she scored 0 points in two of them. Before her big run in Lausanne, she had a 4th, 9th, and 10th. Who knows which Werro will show up tomorrow. If Wiley runs the way she did in Monaco, London, and Rabat, she could possibly pull the upset and make it to Tokyo. It is still going to be tough.
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Emily Grove making a bid for Team USA. She was 8th at USATFs last month but it sitting in 2nd right now on misses. If she clears 4.82 and Morris and Moon fail, Grove will be DL champ and head to Tokyo.
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xzcvzxcv wrote:
Nuguse is one of the four top guys in the 1500m and he has won multiple DL's without Jakob, but Laros is looking very strong right now. Even beyond him, you have two guys who ran 3:27 this year in Habz and Phanuel Koech, so it is possible but tough.
Hoey is facing four guys who have run 1:41 in the past year. Three of those guys are looking very strong right now, Wanyonyi, Arop, and Sedjati--more and more reminiscent of Ramzi resurfacing just before championships. I assume he won't have a downpour to discourage the other guys this time, but Hoey definitely has a shot at this. The 800m is a crapshoot with strong fields. However, Wanyonyi looked the best all season until last race.
Nuguse was smoking Laros at Pre @ 7 weeks ago until he fell apart the final meters and Laros had that great burst to win by 0.01.
In a fast race today, maybe Nuguse can get away from Laros.
Hoping
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Grove hit a PB 4.75 but failed at 4.82. Finished 3rd, Moon in 1st and Morris in 2nd. USA sweep of the podium.
Next up is the shot put in about one hour.
Men - Kovacs, Otterdahl, and Piperi
Women - Jackson, Ewen, and Ross
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Details :-00
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Live, from Zurich, Switzerland wrote:
Grove hit a PB 4.75 but failed at 4.82. Finished 3rd, Moon in 1st and Morris in 2nd. USA sweep of the podium.
Does that mean 4th place USAs finisher Hana Moll goes to Tokyo as Katie Moon now has the bye?
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Newname wrote:
Nuguse was smoking Laros at Pre @ 7 weeks ago until he fell apart the final meters and Laros had that great burst to win by 0.01.
In a fast race today, maybe Nuguse can get away from Laros.
Hoping
I think it’s Nuguse’s best path to victory. I really hope that he hasn’t abandoned frontrunning entirely - it remains a good tactic in paced 1500m races, and also good practice in an unpaced race if you squeeze from 600 out etc.
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Here is Wavelight:
W3000: 8:25 (2:48)
M3KST: 8:04 (2:41)
W1500: 3:55 (2:03)
~I think some will go with this pace, but the third lap will be slow as everyone gears up for the kick.
M1500: 3:27.49 (1:51.0)
~I bet of Habz, Koech and Nuguse someone will trail and this will string out. Rak, a 3:32 guy, is second pacer and he should make it to 950 if not 1,000
W3KST: 8:55
M3000: 7:22.5
~second pacer has only run 3:35 this year, so he might not make it to 1600...still that might be enough with the talent here for a sub-7:25 off a kick
W800: 1:56.29 (56.00)
~Set up for Werro/GHB to go under Swedish record, and break 1:56 respectively
M800: 1:42.00 (49.00)
~I think the 49.00 is more of a placeholder for Sieradzki. He has his head on swivel typically and adjusts to the field. I'm guessing this will be more of a cagey race with a 50-flat type open, Sieradzki adjusting back and taking them to 500, and Wanyonyi doing just enough to lead while holding more in reserve.Link: https://www.wavelight-technologies.com/live/diamond-league/zurich-diamond-league/
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.51 -
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Here is Wavelight:
W3000: 8:25 (2:48)
M3KST: 8:04 (2:41)
W1500: 3:55 (2:03)
~I think some will go with this pace, but the third lap will be slow as everyone gears up for the kick.
M1500: 3:27.49 (1:51.0)
~I bet of Habz, Koech and Nuguse someone will trail and this will string out. Rak, a 3:32 guy, is second pacer and he should make it to 950 if not 1,000
W3KST: 8:55
M3000: 7:22.5
~second pacer has only run 3:35 this year, so he might not make it to 1600...still that might be enough with the talent here for a sub-7:25 off a kick
W800: 1:56.29 (56.00)
~Set up for Werro/GHB to go under Swedish record, and break 1:56 respectively
M800: 1:42.00 (49.00)
~I think the 49.00 is more of a placeholder for Sieradzki. He has his head on swivel typically and adjusts to the field. I'm guessing this will be more of a cagey race with a 50-flat type open, Sieradzki adjusting back and taking them to 500, and Wanyonyi doing just enough to lead while holding more in reserve.Link:Habz hasn’t raced in quite a bit. He might be saving a big effort for tomorrow
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jakobuk wrote:
Live, from Zurich, Switzerland wrote:
Grove hit a PB 4.75 but failed at 4.82. Finished 3rd, Moon in 1st and Morris in 2nd. USA sweep of the podium.
Does that mean 4th place USAs finisher Hana Moll goes to Tokyo as Katie Moon now has the bye?
The US already had the defending World Champ in Moon so we should get 4 vaulters either way. I'm curious if the voluntary tie by Moon and Kennedy in 2023 will give both the US and Australia an additional vaulter; I assume it will.
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