It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
His best strategy is to turn the tables by sitting and kicking just like the guys that have recently beaten him. He needs to learn to trust his finishing speed. He will have plenty if he doesn't waste energy trying to pace the field.
If his 1:46.6 is legit indication of his leg speed, or close to it, he has zero chance of winning with a sit and kick. He can’t learn to trust something that doesn’t exist.
He is at least 1:44 in the 800m if he makes a serious attempt on this distance.
He has been outsprinting Habz several times, most recently in the Euro indoor 1500m final despite frontrunning the last appr.850m and Habz has run 1:43 twice.
The race is on yotube.
By the way: The English commentator in that indoor 1500m final is a fool:
He can´t understand why some of the competitors don´t try to challenge Jakob by taking the lead. BUT how should that help? If they can´t beat him in the finish after having drafted for 850m how should be able to beat him if they had broken "the wind" themselves?
I actually think if he can get healthy this might be his year. Habz or another top runner taking it out fast could help him a ton, and hammer it home the last 800. The tough question is there will be 6+ guys that can run sub 3:28. If he doesn’t have to lead the first 2 laps at a really fast pace he could be in a good setting
It is going to be an amazing race stacked with 3:27 and 3:28 guys. It could take a 3:29 just to make the final.
Here is the key point: there will be a couple 800/1500 guys like Habz in the final--guys who have run 1:43 in the 800. Guys who can leave Kerr, Nuguse, and Hocker in the dust the final 100 meters if the pace is slow.
Given that, there will be many runners in the race, not just Jakob, who would benefit from an honest pace: Mills, Laros, Nillessen, Kipsang, Kerr, Nuguse, Hocker.
If they let the pace dawdle, they could lose not only to Habz, but also to Kessler or Jonah Koech or Lagat.
Phanuel Koech is a wildcard. We have no idea what his top-end speed is like, but he has run 3:27 and clearly is a threat in any kind of race.
There will be a dense pack; those running inside the pack will be pushed and jostled. Those running to the outside of the pack will have to cover extra distance. In such a race, I think there is a good argument for running in either last place or first place, where there is little or no jostling. Or you can run inside the pack and hope lane 1 opens up on the home straight.
It would not surprise me at all to see someone other than Jakob run to the front and push the pace. Probably either Phanuel Koech or George Mills.
Yeah, but who is the one guy that will set a fast pace? You said that “Is they let the pace dawdle, they could lose to…” but who is “they” and despite this fast pace, you predict there will be a dense pack.
It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
El G ran the last 800 in Athens in 1:46x. That's as fast as Ingebrigtsen has ever run the 800. So probably, no.
It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
Morceli not quite the "long drive for home" guy - his most dominant championship performances came with those blistering final 400's well under 52.0 seconds (51.55 Tokyo, 50.62 Stuttgart, 51.28 Gothenburg) - all in races under 3.34.50 pace (think about how insane that is).
You're right though with the El Guerrouj model - I don't think he quite has the power/leg speed of Hicham to run something like Athens (1.46.9 final 800 from the front, 3.34.2), but he can make the race just in general faster and go from slightly further out. You're right again - it isn't rocket science if you are him, make the final a race of attrition. He needs to ask himself "how do I get to 1100m right at my threshold but with enough reserves to run 54 low for the final 400?" Because if he does this nobody will beat him.
I went back and watched the 2023 final which aside from Tokyo (where Tim C made it easy for him), was the best executed race for him in the last 3 championships he hasn't come through. In this one he has his customary slow off the line start, works slowly around the field coming through 300 and takes over exactly with 1000m to go after basically a 70 second opening 500m. He then he runs 57.7 and 54.6 and closes in 27.3. That really wasn't bad - he just couldn't quite drive that opening 400m of the final kilometer as hard as he needed to, but of course he was slightly under the weather. If that was a 56.0 then a 54.6 and 27.3 close then nobody beats him. So he ragged on for his tactical execution but I believe his blueprint to winning (given he is healthy and is running) he has already played out before.
It is going to be an amazing race stacked with 3:27 and 3:28 guys. It could take a 3:29 just to make the final.
Here is the key point: there will be a couple 800/1500 guys like Habz in the final--guys who have run 1:43 in the 800. Guys who can leave Kerr, Nuguse, and Hocker in the dust the final 100 meters if the pace is slow.
Given that, there will be many runners in the race, not just Jakob, who would benefit from an honest pace: Mills, Laros, Nillessen, Kipsang, Kerr, Nuguse, Hocker.
If they let the pace dawdle, they could lose not only to Habz, but also to Kessler or Jonah Koech or Lagat.
Phanuel Koech is a wildcard. We have no idea what his top-end speed is like, but he has run 3:27 and clearly is a threat in any kind of race.
There will be a dense pack; those running inside the pack will be pushed and jostled. Those running to the outside of the pack will have to cover extra distance. In such a race, I think there is a good argument for running in either last place or first place, where there is little or no jostling. Or you can run inside the pack and hope lane 1 opens up on the home straight.
It would not surprise me at all to see someone other than Jakob run to the front and push the pace. Probably either Phanuel Koech or George Mills.
Yeah, but who is the one guy that will set a fast pace? You said that “Is they let the pace dawdle, they could lose to…” but who is “they” and despite this fast pace, you predict there will be a dense pack.
It is hard to say. One possibility is that Kenyans will set a hot pace for Phanuel Koech and establish a protective phalanx around him.
The density of the pack will depend on how hot the early pace is.
There is nothing Jakob can do to win in Tokyo. His best bet is to keep the pace very fast, especially in the second half, but he will be out of medals either way.
Too many guys with a better kick. Nuguse, Hocker, Kerr, Habz and Koech, all will get him in the last 100m.
Therefore Jakob's best bet is to prepare for 5000m and win in a glorious fashion.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
The same strategy that was his best chance to win in Paris.
At some in the race between 1000 and 900 meters out he needs to turn the pace up as close to his threshold as possible and maintain that to the finish. He's the guy with the best threshold at that speed and the most strength.
In all these championship finals he's now lost over the distance the one common theme is that at some point in the final 1000m he backed off/was forced to back off that pace and it allowed the guys with better anaerobic power than him (Wightman, Kerr, Hocker) all were able to recover just enough in-race and then roll him at the finish. Paris in particular he covertly hurt himself so much in that opening 200/400 that even Nuguse was able to comfortably pass him in that final 80m and he's rarely looked so fatigued up the home straight as he was that day. I think that maintaining 55.5-56.0 pace right from the gun for all 1500m is just too difficult for him without wavelight and pace help. I've seen enough of these finals now to be quite confident in saying that's beyond even his incredible ability.
I think he needs to be able to run 2.18.0 for the final 1000m off something like a 72 second opening 500m (57.5/14.5). Run that final 1000m in 56.0, 55.0, 27.0 - in that ballpark. Winning time in the low 3.30's.
I was thinking a similar thing to this, but realistically faster. Let someone take it out in 56/70 for 400m/500m. Then hit the front at 1km to go and run a 2:16 to win in 3:26/27. Air resistance is too much of a factor for someone to win completely frontrunning it. Nobody is that much fitter than the next guy to suffer the energy loss of being at the front the whole time and not get caught in the end. If Jakob is the fittest guy in the race or close to it, drafting for even just 1/3 of the race will give him a better chance to win than in his last few outdoor finals.
It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
El G ran the last 800 in Athens in 1:46x. That's as fast as Ingebrigtsen has ever run the 800. So probably, no.
He doesn't have to drop a 1:46 to win. I think he could go 55/55/26 for the last 2.5 laps. That's 1:48-1:49, certainly doable even if you don't think he can run a fast 800m.
Yeah, but who is the one guy that will set a fast pace? You said that “Is they let the pace dawdle, they could lose to…” but who is “they” and despite this fast pace, you predict there will be a dense pack.
It is hard to say. One possibility is that Kenyans will set a hot pace for Phanuel Koech and establish a protective phalanx around him.
The density of the pack will depend on how hot the early pace is.
It’s not a team sport and it’s likely the other 2 Kenyans will have aspirations of their own.
It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
El G ran the last 800 in Athens in 1:46x. That's as fast as Ingebrigtsen has ever run the 800. So probably, no.
There is nothing Jakob can do to win in Tokyo. His best bet is to keep the pace very fast, especially in the second half, but he will be out of medals either way.
Too many guys with a better kick. Nuguse, Hocker, Kerr, Habz and Koech, all will get him in the last 100m.
Therefore Jakob's best bet is to prepare for 5000m and win in a glorious fashion.
Preparing for the 5000m is the same thing as for the 1500m. He doesn’t have to choose.
His best strategy is to turn the tables by sitting and kicking just like the guys that have recently beaten him. He needs to learn to trust his finishing speed. He will have plenty if he doesn't waste energy trying to pace the field.
echo
can compromise 5k strength by doing a bit more 24x 200m work.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
Go hard from the front and hope like mad his achillies holds up.
Yeah, but who is the one guy that will set a fast pace? You said that “Is they let the pace dawdle, they could lose to…” but who is “they” and despite this fast pace, you predict there will be a dense pack.
It is hard to say. One possibility is that Kenyans will set a hot pace for Phanuel Koech and establish a protective phalanx around him.
The density of the pack will depend on how hot the early pace is.
Of course they won’t form a protective phalanx around Koech. They also have a chance to medal and it will be every man for himself. Do you believe two of Hocker, Nuguse and Kessler will help the third to win?
He needs to trust his strength. He needs to let others lead and take control with 400-600 to go. The only reason he did not win Olympic Gold was because He paced the top 3 finishers for 1450m. Any of those 3 guys would have died by 1200-1250m leading at that pace.