Hedengren is the easy choice since Valby has so many injury issues. Plus Hedengren is already as fast as Valby despite being 4 years younger.
Hedengren's coaches do need to be careful though. She has been racing constantly and has the US champs coming up. Also, tall runners tend to have injury issues. Hopefully they don't fry her.
Good analysis, I agree with pretty much everything. Nice note on Hedengren already living at altitude, can't wait to see what Valby does after a year at altitude.
The only thing I'll note is that Hedengren as a high school senior seems about as good as Valby was as a college senior (and now). Hedengren could plateau right now and still win NCAAs several times and have a decent shot at making teams (I think she's almost surely in sub-4:20/14:45 shape). She's also going to one of the best schools for developing athletes, which has also recently become a funnel directly to a Nike pro team with the same coach in the same location. I think I'd pick Hedengren over Valby, although that might just be tainted by whatever tf is going on with New Balance Boston right now. If Valby was healthy training with 3:55 gals and an indoor world champ every day, I might feel different lol
When is this year at altitude coming? She was in Boston and is now in Florida. I guess she is planning to go to altitude camp this summer, but is there a plan for her to base herself at altitude for most of the year? I would be great if she did, but I am not certain it will happen.
Idk but she’s like 23 so I assume she’ll spend time at altitude sometime before the next Olympics.
But from a performance point of view yeah you go on the person who is 4 years younger and who is showing better speed. Valby also has that injury history.
i don’t track either of their socials to guess who is going to give a bigger ROI.
I don't think women go on missions unless the Mormons are getting progressive
Many LDS Women serve missions but it is “optional.” For young Men they are “called” (expected) to serve. LDS Church Official Handbook 👇
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24. Missionary Recommendations and Service The Lord asks every worthy, able young man to prepare for and serve a mission. For Latter-day Saint young men, missionary service is a priesthood responsibility (see Doctrine and Covenants 36:1, 4–7). The Lord also welcomes worthy, able young women to serve missions if they desire. For young women, a mission is a powerful, but optional, opportunity. Preparing for a mission will bless a young woman whether she decides to serve as a missionary or not.
Except that she outkicked Schweizer and made a team. She is a kicker. She isn't a 1500 runner. Why not ask if she can outkick Mu in an 800? You are incorrect as usual.
They are both fearless front runners. Parker was ballsy as it were to take the lead in the Olympics 10k which demonstrated that she had no fear of those other ladies, including the best in the world some all-time greats. And is she were to remain injury free I would pick her or it would be a toss-up. But Jane is built like the ideal runner. She reminds me of Jakob I. in many ways. I do fear that she is coached by her father #Jakob I., but at least at BYU she will have a female coach. If she can remain injury free she will not only be the best American distance runner ever, she may be one of the greatest in the world. People always cede everything to the Africans, then Jakob came along and destroyed the script. I think the Italian Nadia Battocletti came along and she is showing greatness at that level. In time again injury free I see Jane pushing for Olympic medals possibly as early s 2028, but certainly the world championships after 2028. Her potential is limitless! I've watched a lot of distance running over the last 30 plus year and she is special!
Not trying to stir up any controversy, but if you had a 5 year, 5 million dollar contract who would you award it to? You cannot choose someone else and you have to pick one based on future potential from today's date.
Before anyone freaks out,
Parker has run:
3k- 8:34 (with about 9:15 for 3200)
5k-14:52
10k- 30:50
Jane has run:
Mile- 4:23 (worth about a 4:02 1500)
2 mile-9:17 (worth about an 8:36 3k)
5k-14:57
Personally I like Jane's speed, but Parker is the more proven runner against better competition. We haven't really seen what Jane would do at a US championship.
You are trying to stir up controversy rather than congratulate each. People like you are the ones with low self-esteem and this is the only way you can grab attention. Big time loser you are.
No, I'm not. Find a new thread. You responding like that is where the controversy begins and ends.
Except that she outkicked Schweizer and made a team. She is a kicker. She isn't a 1500 runner. Why not ask if she can outkick Mu in an 800? You are incorrect as usual.
She doesn’t have good middle speed and will never be a kicker. In the 5000m she would never have a chance against Houlihan, Cranny and Andrews.
I wouldn’t invest 5 million in either of them. Both a years away from their prime. Both have an injury history, as well. One is already an Olympian. Jane has been training like a pro for quite some time, so there may not be as much upside as some think. Only time will tell, and I won’t buy into the hype until I see sustained improvement over a number of years.
"The voice of reason" aka guy who doesn't even follow the rules of the thread and writes a long non-answer
I wouldn’t invest 5 million in either of them. Both a years away from their prime. Both have an injury history, as well. One is already an Olympian. Jane has been training like a pro for quite some time, so there may not be as much upside as some think. Only time will tell, and I won’t buy into the hype until I see sustained improvement over a number of years.
"The voice of reason" aka guy who doesn't even follow the rules of the thread and writes a long non-answer
Except that she outkicked Schweizer and made a team. She is a kicker. She isn't a 1500 runner. Why not ask if she can outkick Mu in an 800? You are incorrect as usual.
Come on. The claim that she can never outkick anyone is an exaggeration but nothing Valby has done thus far indicates that she is a kicker.
Except that she outkicked Schweizer and made a team. She is a kicker. She isn't a 1500 runner. Why not ask if she can outkick Mu in an 800? You are incorrect as usual.
She doesn’t have good middle speed and will never be a kicker. In the 5000m she would never have a chance against Houlihan, Cranny and Andrews.
Well, she already beat Andrews the one time she raced against her.
I wouldn’t invest 5 million in either of them. Both a years away from their prime. Both have an injury history, as well. One is already an Olympian. Jane has been training like a pro for quite some time, so there may not be as much upside as some think. Only time will tell, and I won’t buy into the hype until I see sustained improvement over a number of years.
How does Hedengren training compare to how Rylee Blade trains? Blade probably can’t break 4:40 in the mile but was only 3.5 seconds behind Hedengren in the fast indoor 5000m they ran, which indicates Blade had similar fitness. Also, how does training like a pro differ from training like a collegian or a pro that is attending college.
You are comparing a woman who just completed college to a young lady who just completed HS, and there times are not drastically different. My vote is Hedengren.
I'm assuming if I have a $5 million contract to give out I'm probably a shoe or running apparel company. In that case, like it or not, I'm betting on getting a better return on my money going with Valby regardless of who ends up the better runner.
If I had to bet $5m on who will be the better runner? I'll probably take Hedengren. I like speed.
Why tho? Hedengren presents already as more mature/relatable/likable than Valby, so if her athletic upside is also better, why not her? Solely down to you thinking Valby looks better/has a social media bent?
Well, she already beat Andrews the one time she raced against her.
Unless Andrews becomes injured, Valby will have no chance of beating her at the USA championships.
I think Valby actually beat her by 38 seconds in the trials after Andrews went on social media and talked about how confident she was that she would make the team. People seem awfully dismissive of a 21 year old who could have done the 5K/10K double in the Olympics. Morgan is an Olympian only because Valby gave up that spot.
Keep in mind Jane has been trained like a pro since she was like 4.
While I don't agree that she has trained like a pro since age 4, keep in mind that Jane has the body and biomechanics showing that she can handle training like a pro - Valby does not.
These really boils down to two things.
1) Valby's inability to train at a high level while staying healthy.
2) Hedengren's age. Have people forgot that neither Mary Cain or Alexa Efraimson ran faster than they did in HS? Now they were more 800/mile. Tuohy did improve.
Valby's weakness is offset by the fact she hasn't done altitude training.
Here is a nice article on Jane's start in the sport with her dad's help:
Regarding point number 2, Alexa actually did PR in the 800 and 3,000 after high school (and she ran very fast in high school in these events, including 9 flat on an oversized indoor track), but not the 1500.
But the spirt of your post is correct…many of the all time great female high school runners faster or only marginally faster.
Not trying to stir up any controversy, but if you had a 5 year, 5 million dollar contract who would you award it to? You cannot choose someone else and you have to pick one based on future potential from today's date.
Before anyone freaks out,
Parker has run:
3k- 8:34 (with about 9:15 for 3200)
5k-14:52
10k- 30:50
Jane has run:
Mile- 4:23 (worth about a 4:02 1500)
2 mile-9:17 (worth about an 8:36 3k)
5k-14:57
Personally I like Jane's speed, but Parker is the more proven runner against better competition. We haven't really seen what Jane would do at a US championship.
I think jane,if she can make the jump from teen phenom to top level 20something.