Hot Takes wrote:
^^ some data on world record progression, how long between records and how much the improvement was.
April 1985 2:07:12
3 years, 22 seconds April 1988 2:06:50
10 years, 45 seconds September 1998 2:06:05
1 year, 23 seconds October 1999 2:05:42
2.5 years, 4 seconds April 2002 2:05:38
1.5 years, 43 seconds September 2003 2:04:55
4 years, 29 seconds September 2007 2:04:26
1 year, 27 seconds September 2008 2:03:59
3 years, 21 seconds September 2011 2:03:38
2 years, 15 seconds September 2013 2:03:23
1 year, 26 seconds September 2014 2:02:57
4 years, 1min 18 seconds September 2018 2:01:39
4 years, 30 seconds September 2022 2:01:09
1 year, 34 seconds October 2023 2:00:35
Super shoes Invented end of 2015, everyone had prototypes by end of 2019. Only 1 record in this timespan anyway
Average improvement in record from 1985 to 2015 (30 years), 2:07:12 down to 2:02:57 is 8.5 seconds per year
Average improvement in record from 2015 to 2025 (10 years), 2:02:57 down to 2:00:35 is 14.2 seconds per year... If we attribute the increase to shoes and think we should have kept the 8.5 seconds per year average, then we've seen 5.7 seconds * 10 = 57 second improvement due to the shoes. This seems reasonable to me, but not "3-4 minutes". So basically Kipchoge's improvement minus his 57 seconds from better shoes means he had an equivalent better marathon by 21 seconds instead of his 1:18 improvement, again 21 seconds is pretty inline with the typical record improvement. So Ryan may have run 2:04:01 on his windy day at Boston with modern shoes, but saying he'd run 3-4 minutes faster, meaning 2:01:58-2:00:58 is ridiculous.
Good post. Said another way, if Mantz ALSO had the 2011 tailwind in these new shoes, he probably runs 2:02:58. That’s why all these comparisons are stupid.
The shoes afford some performance enhancement. But it’s not 3-4 min. That’s silly. Someone should ask Eyestone.