It's really not bonkers. Jakob hasn't run an 800 since 2020 when he was still a teenager, he likely could've run 1:45 around that time but was still clearly prioritizing mid-distance, because his threshold there is world-beating, whereas his threshold in the 800 is obviously not. He has never prioritized the race or been put in a fast time trial while in his mature form.
You need to spend at least some significant amount of time understanding how to run a fast 800 in order to actually do it, it is not just about how fast you can run a 400m. Being able to run a 3:26 1500m is a much stronger indicator of being able to break 1:43 than any 400m time could ever be.
Your first point about Jakob being a 3:23 guy if he had 1:42 high speed is also bonkers. That is even more speculative than what I claimed, and shows dogmatic thinking.
LetsRun is famous for urging 400m athletes to move up in distance to the 800 with speculation of them being capable of running extremely fast times. Jakob running a sub 1:43 800m is not even close to the same kind of jump as moving Noah Lyles up to the 1500m and having him break the world record. Way too many loose comparisons here.
I agree with the above poster. If Jakob was a strength based 1:42 guy. He would definitely run at least 3:24. Being able to run a 2x 1500ms in 3:41 and 3:36 with no rest is the reason he can 3:26. His 3k is unprecedented. His 800m isn average.
Or is that he is able to average 3:38.5 per 1500 over 3000m because he is a 3:25/3:26 guy? Again, dogmatic to say for certain
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Using Hobbs' 800m is not a good proxy for Jakob. Jakob would probably beat Hobbs in a 5k by 30 seconds, so Hobbs can be a lot faster at 800m but still slower at 1500m
AND he beats Hoppel, Arop, 2019 Brazier, by over a minute
If Jakob could at any point run 1:42.8 along with his current over distance accolades he would be a 3:23-3:24 guy.
Thats a bonkers take.
I think Jakob is probably good for 1:44 mid.
100ish mpw mostly comprised of threshold, Vo2/Mile pace and hill sprints for speed development just doesn’t really get you to that kind of 800m speed. Fully willing to be wrong here, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen a sub 1:43 capable athlete run a world class 5000m. There’s a good physiological reason for that. You start getting to the point where overall frame and muscle fiber composition allow you to do things physiologically that also inhibit you from doing other things physiologically. This is why you can’t just take someone like Noah Lyles, have him run 70 mpw and break the 800/1500m world records. You could maybe make him good enough to make a D1 team as a middle distance athlete. Even though it’s a smaller lapse in specific talent, it’s the same idea saying someone who probably runs best at 3000-5000m could run a world class 800m.
It's really not bonkers. Jakob hasn't run an 800 since 2020 when he was still a teenager, he likely could've run 1:45 around that time but was still clearly prioritizing mid-distance, because his threshold there is world-beating, whereas his threshold in the 800 is obviously not. He has never prioritized the race or been put in a fast time trial while in his mature form.
You need to spend at least some significant amount of time understanding how to run a fast 800 in order to actually do it, it is not just about how fast you can run a 400m. Being able to run a 3:26 1500m is a much stronger indicator of being able to break 1:43 than any 400m time could ever be.
Your first point about Jakob being a 3:23 guy if he had 1:42 high speed is also bonkers. That is even more speculative than what I claimed, and shows dogmatic thinking.
LetsRun is famous for urging 400m athletes to move up in distance to the 800 with speculation of them being capable of running extremely fast times. Jakob running a sub 1:43 800m is not even close to the same kind of jump as moving Noah Lyles up to the 1500m and having him break the world record. Way too many loose comparisons here.
I think you’re missing the point. I’m saying that’s just not how physiology works.
I’m saying I do not think Jakob could specifically train to run a 1:42 let alone be capable of it now. He does not have the fast twitch muscle composition to do that, the Lyles comparison is pointing out how someone who is faster than world class 800m runners over 400m can’t just do distance training to beat them. When Jakobs family and coaches are speculating his best event will likely end up being 5k or 10k, there probably is a limit on genetic capacity similar to a Lyles 800m, just in the opposite direction. Lyles best distances are 100-200m, he is capable of being world class at 400m, and probably wouldn’t run a bad 800m but not quite world class. Jakob focusing on the 1500m is part of his plan to break all of the records 1500m and up, and those closely involved with his training speculate that it will be his hardest feat out of all of the distances. Jakob consistently being outkicked by 1:43-1:44 guys in sit and kick races also does not aid the case for 1:42.
It's really not bonkers. Jakob hasn't run an 800 since 2020 when he was still a teenager, he likely could've run 1:45 around that time but was still clearly prioritizing mid-distance, because his threshold there is world-beating, whereas his threshold in the 800 is obviously not. He has never prioritized the race or been put in a fast time trial while in his mature form.
You need to spend at least some significant amount of time understanding how to run a fast 800 in order to actually do it, it is not just about how fast you can run a 400m. Being able to run a 3:26 1500m is a much stronger indicator of being able to break 1:43 than any 400m time could ever be.
Your first point about Jakob being a 3:23 guy if he had 1:42 high speed is also bonkers. That is even more speculative than what I claimed, and shows dogmatic thinking.
LetsRun is famous for urging 400m athletes to move up in distance to the 800 with speculation of them being capable of running extremely fast times. Jakob running a sub 1:43 800m is not even close to the same kind of jump as moving Noah Lyles up to the 1500m and having him break the world record. Way too many loose comparisons here.
I think you’re missing the point. I’m saying that’s just not how physiology works.
I’m saying I do not think Jakob could specifically train to run a 1:42 let alone be capable of it now. He does not have the fast twitch muscle composition to do that, the Lyles comparison is pointing out how someone who is faster than world class 800m runners over 400m can’t just do distance training to beat them. When Jakobs family and coaches are speculating his best event will likely end up being 5k or 10k, there probably is a limit on genetic capacity similar to a Lyles 800m, just in the opposite direction. Lyles best distances are 100-200m, he is capable of being world class at 400m, and probably wouldn’t run a bad 800m but not quite world class. Jakob focusing on the 1500m is part of his plan to break all of the records 1500m and up, and those closely involved with his training speculate that it will be his hardest feat out of all of the distances. Jakob consistently being outkicked by 1:43-1:44 guys in sit and kick races also does not aid the case for 1:42.
I am aware what you were saying about composition. The difference in physiological demands between the 200m and 1500m is far more extreme than the difference between the demands of the 800m and 1500m.
Generally it is pretty mind-boggling to me that any of you believe someone can run 3:26 without fast-twitch muscle fibers. Jakob has plenty of those, else he would not be able to rattle off 54 second 400s back-to-back-to-back-to-back. I stand by my statement that Jakob would beat Nick Symmonds' 800m PR if he dedicated training and competition time to it.
I think you’re missing the point. I’m saying that’s just not how physiology works.
I’m saying I do not think Jakob could specifically train to run a 1:42 let alone be capable of it now. He does not have the fast twitch muscle composition to do that, the Lyles comparison is pointing out how someone who is faster than world class 800m runners over 400m can’t just do distance training to beat them. When Jakobs family and coaches are speculating his best event will likely end up being 5k or 10k, there probably is a limit on genetic capacity similar to a Lyles 800m, just in the opposite direction. Lyles best distances are 100-200m, he is capable of being world class at 400m, and probably wouldn’t run a bad 800m but not quite world class. Jakob focusing on the 1500m is part of his plan to break all of the records 1500m and up, and those closely involved with his training speculate that it will be his hardest feat out of all of the distances. Jakob consistently being outkicked by 1:43-1:44 guys in sit and kick races also does not aid the case for 1:42.
I am aware what you were saying about composition. The difference in physiological demands between the 200m and 1500m is far more extreme than the difference between the demands of the 800m and 1500m.
Generally it is pretty mind-boggling to me that any of you believe someone can run 3:26 without fast-twitch muscle fibers. Jakob has plenty of those, else he would not be able to rattle off 54 second 400s back-to-back-to-back-to-back. I stand by my statement that Jakob would beat Nick Symmonds' 800m PR if he dedicated training and competition time to it.
If you think Jakob can run 1:42 with a dedicated program, do you think Kerr, Hocker, Wightman, Hobbs and run 1:41?
I am aware what you were saying about composition. The difference in physiological demands between the 200m and 1500m is far more extreme than the difference between the demands of the 800m and 1500m.
Generally it is pretty mind-boggling to me that any of you believe someone can run 3:26 without fast-twitch muscle fibers. Jakob has plenty of those, else he would not be able to rattle off 54 second 400s back-to-back-to-back-to-back. I stand by my statement that Jakob would beat Nick Symmonds' 800m PR if he dedicated training and competition time to it.
If you think Jakob can run 1:42 with a dedicated program, do you think Kerr, Hocker, Wightman, Hobbs and run 1:41?
Hocker can run a slightly faster 1:42 IMO. Kerr, idk perhaps, Hobbs maybe, Wightman no of course not.
It's really not bonkers. Jakob hasn't run an 800 since 2020 when he was still a teenager, he likely could've run 1:45 around that time but was still clearly prioritizing mid-distance, because his threshold there is world-beating, whereas his threshold in the 800 is obviously not. He has never prioritized the race or been put in a fast time trial while in his mature form.
You need to spend at least some significant amount of time understanding how to run a fast 800 in order to actually do it, it is not just about how fast you can run a 400m. Being able to run a 3:26 1500m is a much stronger indicator of being able to break 1:43 than any 400m time could ever be.
Your first point about Jakob being a 3:23 guy if he had 1:42 high speed is also bonkers. That is even more speculative than what I claimed, and shows dogmatic thinking.
LetsRun is famous for urging 400m athletes to move up in distance to the 800 with speculation of them being capable of running extremely fast times. Jakob running a sub 1:43 800m is not even close to the same kind of jump as moving Noah Lyles up to the 1500m and having him break the world record. Way too many loose comparisons here.
I think you’re missing the point. I’m saying that’s just not how physiology works.
I’m saying I do not think Jakob could specifically train to run a 1:42 let alone be capable of it now. He does not have the fast twitch muscle composition to do that, the Lyles comparison is pointing out how someone who is faster than world class 800m runners over 400m can’t just do distance training to beat them. When Jakobs family and coaches are speculating his best event will likely end up being 5k or 10k, there probably is a limit on genetic capacity similar to a Lyles 800m, just in the opposite direction. Lyles best distances are 100-200m, he is capable of being world class at 400m, and probably wouldn’t run a bad 800m but not quite world class. Jakob focusing on the 1500m is part of his plan to break all of the records 1500m and up, and those closely involved with his training speculate that it will be his hardest feat out of all of the distances. Jakob consistently being outkicked by 1:43-1:44 guys in sit and kick races also does not aid the case for 1:42.
Jakob definitely can’t run 1:42, but what are you talking about here? Wasn’t the last sit and kick he lost the 1500 at European Indoors in 2019?
I think you’re missing the point. I’m saying that’s just not how physiology works.
I’m saying I do not think Jakob could specifically train to run a 1:42 let alone be capable of it now. He does not have the fast twitch muscle composition to do that, the Lyles comparison is pointing out how someone who is faster than world class 800m runners over 400m can’t just do distance training to beat them. When Jakobs family and coaches are speculating his best event will likely end up being 5k or 10k, there probably is a limit on genetic capacity similar to a Lyles 800m, just in the opposite direction. Lyles best distances are 100-200m, he is capable of being world class at 400m, and probably wouldn’t run a bad 800m but not quite world class. Jakob focusing on the 1500m is part of his plan to break all of the records 1500m and up, and those closely involved with his training speculate that it will be his hardest feat out of all of the distances. Jakob consistently being outkicked by 1:43-1:44 guys in sit and kick races also does not aid the case for 1:42.
Jakob definitely can’t run 1:42, but what are you talking about here? Wasn’t the last sit and kick he lost the 1500 at European Indoors in 2019?
Right, "consistently being outkicked" is a weird way describe winning tons of championship races in record times lol
If you think Jakob can run 1:42 with a dedicated program, do you think Kerr, Hocker, Wightman, Hobbs and run 1:41?
Hocker can run a slightly faster 1:42 IMO. Kerr, idk perhaps, Hobbs maybe, Wightman no of course not.
None of these guys including Jakob are touching sub 1:43, for the love of good these guys are not 46 second 400m runners, not even 47 I'd say. They DO NOT HAVE THE FOOTSPEED.
Most of them have run 12:50s or under in the 5k as well. If they were capable of 12:5x in the 5K and 46 in the 400m, they would have broken the mile WR by now.
You guys clearly do not understand how much raw speed you need to run a world class elite 800m, that these longer distance athletes simply do not possess
And let's be real. A guy like Jakob wouldn't run the 800m unless he knew he'd be good at it. The 800 is not his race. It'd be a waste of time for him to focus so much training on to it. Hence why he doesn't do it.
And let's be real. A guy like Jakob wouldn't run the 800m unless he knew he'd be good at it. The 800 is not his race. It'd be a waste of time for him to focus so much training on to it. Hence why he doesn't do it.
"good at it" doesn't factor into the equation. He won't run it unless he thinks he can be THE BEST AT IT.
Why would Jakob leave two events he has won gold in JUST to be on Nick Symmonds level. LOL
I am aware what you were saying about composition. The difference in physiological demands between the 200m and 1500m is far more extreme than the difference between the demands of the 800m and 1500m.
Generally it is pretty mind-boggling to me that any of you believe someone can run 3:26 without fast-twitch muscle fibers. Jakob has plenty of those, else he would not be able to rattle off 54 second 400s back-to-back-to-back-to-back. I stand by my statement that Jakob would beat Nick Symmonds' 800m PR if he dedicated training and competition time to it.
Being able to run repeat 54's is an example of his endurance. That has nothing to do with raw fast twitch muscle fibers. Fast twitch fiber would be him being able to run a 46-47 400m.
He could run a 1:48 800m with those splits. And if Jakob pushed, he could go 52 then 54 to make 1:46, maybe 1:45.8 if he really kicked on the last lap. Which I believe is the fastest he could go for 800m.
I am aware what you were saying about composition. The difference in physiological demands between the 200m and 1500m is far more extreme than the difference between the demands of the 800m and 1500m.
Generally it is pretty mind-boggling to me that any of you believe someone can run 3:26 without fast-twitch muscle fibers. Jakob has plenty of those, else he would not be able to rattle off 54 second 400s back-to-back-to-back-to-back. I stand by my statement that Jakob would beat Nick Symmonds' 800m PR if he dedicated training and competition time to it.
Being able to run repeat 54's is an example of his endurance. That has nothing to do with raw fast twitch muscle fibers. Fast twitch fiber would be him being able to run a 46-47 400m.
He could run a 1:48 800m with those splits. And if Jakob pushed, he could go 52 then 54 to make 1:46, maybe 1:45.8 if he really kicked on the last lap. Which I believe is the fastest he could go for 800m.
In an interview he did in 2022 with Norwegian news outlet Aftenposten, Jakob was asked by the journalist if he had lost to Jake Wightman because of Wightman’s superior raw foot speed. Jakob denied this, telling the interview that he has as much raw speed as anyone running the 1500. He claimed that season he did an all 400 from a standing start and finished in 46 low. He elaborated and said he could probably run close to the 800 WR, but likely not quite able to break 1:41 flat. When pressed on this, he told the interviewer he doesn’t enjoy the 800 much and running that fast aggravates his hip with inflammation. So he said that he has no intention of seriously running an all out 800 again. He said in the interview he only plans on moving up in distance after he’s finished competing in the 1500 and never running shorter.
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