Jakob Predictions at Lievin on 13th Feb

3:46.10

Not easy but he may do it.

A 3:45.9 mile is worth like 3:29, right? Jakob will get that (or be close).

Here is what a 3:45.9 is "worth" based on the tables:

1500m = 3:29.31
3K = 7:27.58

But I don't use the "indoor" bonuses anymore. I don't believe the "conversions" should be so big. WA/IAAF still acts like running indoor is way slower and soon we will see that that thinking is outdated.*

*Remember when spikes were always faster on the track compared to racing flats? Well, times change. I feel like indoor used to be a lot slower but not it is just "earlier" and less important. The track is not the problem at this point, the 200m banked, tuned tracks are not slowing people down...

3:46 flat

This is what Jakob is saying the day before the race in Lievin:

SPORTS NEWS ATHLETICS
12 February 2025 at 18:57
Will be disappointed if he doesn't take the world record: - I really want to
- Everyone really wants to, but it's a world record for a reason and you can't just stand up and take them as you like.
That's what Jakob Asserson Ingebrigtsen says to NRK when asked if he wants to chase records in the French Lievin. He will make his season debut there by running one English mile indoors on Thursday. The distance which is 109 meters longer than 1500 meters.
- Will you be disappointed if you don't take a world record here?
- Yes, the 24-year-old replies matter-of-factly.
Filip Ingebrigtsen will also run in Lievin, less than a week after he became the second Norwegian to run under 7:40 in 3000 meters indoors.
On Thursday, he will again try his hand at 3,000 metres.
- It is a bit offensive to have two races so close, but we are trying, says Filip Ingebrigtsen to NRK.

nrk.no

Blir skuffet om han ikke tar verdensrekord: – Har veldig lyst

NRK

– Alle har veldig lyst, men det er verdensrekord av en grunn og man kan ikke bare stå opp og ta dem som man vil. Det sier Jakob Asserson Ingebrigtsen til NRK på spørsmål om han vil jakte rekorder i franske Lievin. Der sesongd...

Open link

He won the European cross country championship and looked very easy at it. Beating among others Andreas Almgren who later ran 26:53 for the 10 K. Last winter Jakob could not run at all because of injury. This winter he has completed all planned workouts. I think he is in super shape. Only question is if he has done enough speedwork.

Think sub 3:46. If being very optimistic a chance for sub 3:30 split 1500 m en route to WR in the mile.

A slowdown of .2, sure why not.

https://api.athle.matsport.com/pdfs/fe15c935-dcd0-4913-a00b-c5ca88d1debe_ATSTAM016101/ATHMMILE----SENIOR----FNL-000100--..C51A.ENG.1.0U.report.pdf.pdf

It says that sisk is going through 1100m in 2:34. That is 3:30 1500m speed or 3:45.31 Mile speed. That's already over a second faster than Nuguse. Looks like he wants to set the 1500m and Mile indoor WR at the same time. I predict 3:44 high.

Yup he’s going to try to set both records and the man has jokes too:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DF-_Q5LIwUE/?igsh=MThqZ2Y0MXJqdjJubw==

It looks like there's a link on the World Athletics page to stream it. However, it requires setting up a World Athletics account. I'm in the US and plan to use a VPN in order to not pay Flotrack. The WA signup asks for country. If I honestly say I'm in the US when I set up my account, will that derail by efforts to watch from, e.g. Norway, via VPN? Or should I create a fake email and say I'm from Norway? Has anyone dealt with this before when trying to stream from the WA site?

In my experience, no. My home country is set to USA and I watched Millrose from Japan without issue.

3:45.75

Scarily enuff, I believe you believed that

I have believed now for years that the only thing which historically created this "difference" in performance at distances 1500m and up (I do believe the speed of running matters), was purely periodization and training philosophy. By that I mean in the past, almost all of the top guys saw the indoor season as a chance to stretch the legs in the middle of heavy mileage and the training philosophy meant they were relatively much further away from their summer season potentials than what we see today.

Current training philosophy as we know is far less "long slow winters, all speed summers" and so quite simply everyone is just that little but closer to their ceiling all year round and it doesn't seem like it takes a lot at all for guys to be while not quite at their absolute ceilings, very close to it. I actually think now that the only difference is general fatigue - everyone is simply more rested in the summer season than in winter and if you just reversed that there would be almost no difference in performance level.

Irrespective of that, the conditions of running indoors basically account for this. The only factor in which an indoor track is punitive to performance comes down running speed with respect to the curves but at some point the banking/geometry of the track overcomes that. It's why it's still almost impossible to run a fast 400m indoors, difficult to run a fast 8, but now it seems this is ~7 meters per second speed of an elite 1500m is easily handled by track banking. When you throw in the advantages of not running outdoors like zero wind, perfect temperature and a track surface that due to the nature of it's construction is raised off the ground on some form of structure that has to add a form of elastic compliance, it's easy to rationalize why we are now seeing such awesome performances indoors.

At this point just stream it from NRK.no via vpn, imo.

99.98% nailed it!!

Close enough. The rationale was that 3:45.15 is equivalent to 3:28.5, and I figured he should be in that sort of shape now if 3:26.00 is in the cards this summer.

*3:45.18