Everyone knows that Galen Rupp essentially equal or beat Ryan Hall’s record in Rome a few years back. Now the problem was, that there was 180° turn about 200 yards from the finish. It totally threw him off and ruined his momentum at the end if he hadn’t had that stupid hair brain turn, he probably would’ve lowered that record by at least three or 3 to 5 seconds easily!!! Watch the race. It was like what the hell.
Wasn’t that course point to point so not record eligible?
Ugh, wind keeps getting worse. Now steady 10-15 and gusts approaching 30. Would be helpful to have pacers in the lead for miles 8-11 when they are heading north into the wind, but that seems unlikely unless the pacers are so strong they could potentially win the race.
At least Mantz and especially Klecker are very used to windy conditions.
Ugh, wind keeps getting worse. Now steady 10-15 and gusts approaching 30. Would be helpful to have pacers in the lead for miles 8-11 when they are heading north into the wind, but that seems unlikely unless the pacers are so strong they could potentially win the race.
At least Mantz and especially Klecker are very used to windy conditions.
How does one become used to windy conditions? It seems like it would suck for everyone.
Everyone knows that Galen Rupp essentially equal or beat Ryan Hall’s record in Rome a few years back. Now the problem was, that there was 180° turn about 200 yards from the finish. It totally threw him off and ruined his momentum at the end if he hadn’t had that stupid hair brain turn, he probably would’ve lowered that record by at least three or 3 to 5 seconds easily!!! Watch the race. It was like what the hell.
Wasn’t that course point to point so not record eligible?
Finish is within a mile of the start, it's essentially a loop.
I don’t think the record falls: it’s going to be windy and cold, affecting them in that order.
My bold prediction I haven’t heard anyone suggest is that Mantz WINS the race. Mantz 1st in low-60, Klecker 3rd only 10-15 seconds back.
I just assumed Mantz was the favorite. He came 8th in the Olympics to Young's 9th and Klecker's DNQ. Huh now that I'm thinking about it, Klecker and Mantz are known as grinders/frontrunners, Young is probably happy just sitting on either of them, and I don't think Mantz is necessarily better than him. Young was definitely better at the Olympic Trials, and Mantz was only 30s and 1 place better at the Olympics, which is like a .3% difference in a 2 hour race. How big is .3%? Do you think missing 1 workout is enough to make a .3% difference? Not sleeping great the night before?
Idk, now I'm kinda thinking if the AR goes down at least 2 people will go under. It might be windy and cold, but Hall ran his record without a pacer or supershoes or competition. These guys will have all 3.
I just assumed Mantz was the favorite. He came 8th in the Olympics to Young's 9th and Klecker's DNQ. Huh now that I'm thinking about it, Klecker and Mantz are known as grinders/frontrunners, Young is probably happy just sitting on either of them, and I don't think Mantz is necessarily better than him. Young was definitely better at the Olympic Trials, and Mantz was only 30s and 1 place better at the Olympics, which is like a .3% difference in a 2 hour race. How big is .3%? Do you think missing 1 workout is enough to make a .3% difference? Not sleeping great the night before?
Idk, now I'm kinda thinking if the AR goes down at least 2 people will go under. It might be windy and cold, but Hall ran his record without a pacer or supershoes or competition. These guys will have all 3.
If you have followed Clayton's docuseries and follow both him and Mantz on Strava you would clearly know that Mantz is in fact better than him. Who leads in all of the workouts? Who has won that last 4 straight major (Chicago, Trials, Paris, NYC) races between the 2? Yes 30 seconds isn't much in a Marathon at Paris but one of them is going out to try winning in these races and other is sitting back and not competing. Yeah Mantz got a little dinged up recently so Young might get his crack at him this Sunday, but Mantz gives everything he's got and wont let a bad nights sleep or 1 missed workout get in the way. Lets be clear on who is objectively a better and more accomplished runner.
In the marathon, the difference between Mantz and Young is not very big. I don't care who leads workouts because ANYONE who watched the docuseries saw that Mantz pushes his workouts significantly harder than Clayton does. Clayton looks for doubles. Mantz is always pushing, hence why he has gotten injured twice in the last year.
With that said, Clayton is a marathoner through and through. Mantz is better at the shorter differences. See the Boulder 10 mile race that they did. Clayton was not even close. Mantz raced a strong 10K at the Olympic Trials. That's not something that Clayton can do. Mantz will dust Clayton in the half marathon, but I am under the assumption that they'll be neck and neck at the Boston Marathon in April.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I do not think either the mens or womens AR record is in danger due to unkind weaher conditions. But I believe they are capable of it in ideal conditions.
Ugh, wind keeps getting worse. Now steady 10-15 and gusts approaching 30. Would be helpful to have pacers in the lead for miles 8-11 when they are heading north into the wind, but that seems unlikely unless the pacers are so strong they could potentially win the race.
At least Mantz and especially Klecker are very used to windy conditions.
How does one become used to windy conditions? It seems like it would suck for everyone.
Gee. Relaxing and going with the flow. Understanding how to adjust gear and when to drop extra layers. Not pushing too hard too early. Being aware of when you will have a headwind vs. tail or cross and having a race plan for the specific course and conditions. Understanding when you will want to tuck in behind someone if at all possible and when it will matter less.
Anyone with little experience can believe it is simple in theory but then they often look like fools on race day. Just wait for the excuses at the finish line for the ones who don't plan well.
I say Yes to the AR record falling . . . to Weini Kelati, who steals everyone's thunder by running well into the 65s.
By all accounts, much better than last year at this time when she ran her 1:06:25 AR.
Almost broke her Thanksgiving Day Manchester road race record off minimal training in very bad weather. Stated afterwards it was not that hard of a race.
"Ah ha" moment came last month in Hawaii when Weini almost beat Nikki Hiltz in the Merrie Mile while out legging Sinclaire Johnson & Heather MacLean. 10,000/half marathon runners are not supposed to beat mile specialists at their own game. But Weini is so fit she kept up with them throughout the race and outkicked all but one at the end, only losing to Hiltz by 0.1 sec.
Hall mentioned he was in a zone the two months leading up to his Houston race back in 2007, with his 59:43 AR feeling effortless throughout -- a running sensation he said he was never able to replicate.
Appears Kelati is feeling that same vibe.
She's the runner everyone should be paying attention to.
Ryan Hall ran 59:43 without super shoes, which as Gault has written was a day the stars aligned for a guy who was super talented and trained super hard.
Call me a hater, a jaded, cynical curmudgeon, but I'm sick of hearing our top American men claim to be in sub 60, sub 2:07, whatever shape, then not deliver on race day.
I think this record is overdue to fall on Sunday, the weather looks good, I respect the work Mantz, Klecker, Bor, Pearson, Young put in, and I'm glad we're sending some big dogs to take a swing. But Ryan Hall was a bad MFer and I'm saying his record is still standing when the dust settles.
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