"unquestionably"? I don't think any of the fastest runners this year have run any of the the same courses Tuohy ran as a senior, so at a minimum that leaves some question. Machia, one of the top runners listed above ran the NXR course 62 seconds slower than Tuohy did as a senior. She was also about 50 seconds slower at the 4K Manhattan invitational than Tuohy was as a senior. But maybe you are so smart you think you can compare times on different courses?
But yet you think Billy Boy can, when his infamous ‘speed ratings’ have generally not gone up while times have certainly gone down.
where did I say you could? All I did was compare times Tuohy and Machia ran on the same course? As far as whether times have gone down, maybe after Saturday, and then next Saturday (FL) we can check on that?
Leachman was fast on the track last year but she hasn't been healthy the last few months. Ritzenhein just got beat by about 40 seconds at NXR.
Blade set the course record at Woodbridge in September but it was the first year that course was used so obviously it had to be the course record. Plus that course is pancake flat running around soccer fields unlike a true xc course. Engelhardt had one very good race in October but outside of that she hasn't done anything special.
I think that people are forgetting just how good Tuohy was in xc her senior year when she was demolishing course records almost every week.
This is a rough all time list at Glendoveer, we'll see how they do.
But yet you think Billy Boy can, when his infamous ‘speed ratings’ have generally not gone up while times have certainly gone down.
where did I say you could? All I did was compare times Tuohy and Machia ran on the same course? As far as whether times have gone down, maybe after Saturday, and then next Saturday (FL) we can check on that?
We don’t need to wait. Englehardt’s obliteration of the esteemed all-time Woodward Park course record and Hedengren’s fastest ever time over the 5k distance have already demonstrated times are faster!
Yet you probably sit there hoping for rain on Saturday to cover for your biased viewpoint.
where did I say you could? All I did was compare times Tuohy and Machia ran on the same course? As far as whether times have gone down, maybe after Saturday, and then next Saturday (FL) we can check on that?
We don’t need to wait. Englehardt’s obliteration of the esteemed all-time Woodward Park course record and Hedengren’s fastest ever time over the 5k distance have already demonstrated times are faster!
Yet you probably sit there hoping for rain on Saturday to cover for your biased viewpoint.
So in your opinion, any time a course record is broken, that means the whole field is faster than when the prior record was set? Interesting. Some might say the record breaker (just that one runner) is faster than the prior record owner.
We don’t need to wait. Englehardt’s obliteration of the esteemed all-time Woodward Park course record and Hedengren’s fastest ever time over the 5k distance have already demonstrated times are faster!
Yet you probably sit there hoping for rain on Saturday to cover for your biased viewpoint.
So in your opinion, any time a course record is broken, that means the whole field is faster than when the prior record was set? Interesting. Some might say the record breaker (just that one runner) is faster than the prior record owner.
That ‘record breaker’ obliterated the record of a course that has been run by thousands of runners. Only one has obliterated it like she did. And yet, all we got from your camp was a wimpy speed and rating that simply couldn’t s not an accurate historical representation of what factually happened: SR you s ‘fake news’, and can thus be considered a disservice.
If Bill wants to try and improve it, he can start by taking the word “speed” out of its name. It is NOT a metric that accurately gauges one’s speed. If it was, we would have seen the speed ratings generally rise upward, as course times have fallen.
And course times obviously have fallen. It’s not just Hedrngren and Englehardt. The number of runners running under a certain time at Woodward Park was at an all-time high this year.
So in your opinion, any time a course record is broken, that means the whole field is faster than when the prior record was set? Interesting. Some might say the record breaker (just that one runner) is faster than the prior record owner.
That ‘record breaker’ obliterated the record of a course that has been run by thousands of runners. Only one has obliterated it like she did. And yet, all we got from your camp was a wimpy speed and rating that simply couldn’t s not an accurate historical representation of what factually happened: SR you s ‘fake news’, and can thus be considered a disservice.
If Bill wants to try and improve it, he can start by taking the word “speed” out of its name. It is NOT a metric that accurately gauges one’s speed. If it was, we would have seen the speed ratings generally rise upward, as course times have fallen.
And course times obviously have fallen. It’s not just Hedrngren and Englehardt. The number of runners running under a certain time at Woodward Park was at an all-time high this year.
So in your opinion, any time a course record is broken, that means the whole field is faster than when the prior record was set? Interesting. Some might say the record breaker (just that one runner) is faster than the prior record owner.
That ‘record breaker’ obliterated the record of a course that has been run by thousands of runners. Only one has obliterated it like she did. And yet, all we got from your camp was a wimpy speed and rating that simply couldn’t s not an accurate historical representation of what factually happened: SR you s ‘fake news’, and can thus be considered a disservice.
If Bill wants to try and improve it, he can start by taking the word “speed” out of its name. It is NOT a metric that accurately gauges one’s speed. If it was, we would have seen the speed ratings generally rise upward, as course times have fallen.
And course times obviously have fallen. It’s not just Hedrngren and Englehardt. The number of runners running under a certain time at Woodward Park was at an all-time high this year.
"The whole point of deriving "speed ratings" is to see how fast runners are running relative to each other ."
That ‘record breaker’ obliterated the record of a course that has been run by thousands of runners. Only one has obliterated it like she did. And yet, all we got from your camp was a wimpy speed and rating that simply couldn’t s not an accurate historical representation of what factually happened: SR you s ‘fake news’, and can thus be considered a disservice.
If Bill wants to try and improve it, he can start by taking the word “speed” out of its name. It is NOT a metric that accurately gauges one’s speed. If it was, we would have seen the speed ratings generally rise upward, as course times have fallen.
And course times obviously have fallen. It’s not just Hedrngren and Englehardt. The number of runners running under a certain time at Woodward Park was at an all-time high this year.
"The whole point of deriving "speed ratings" is to see how fast runners are running relative to each other ."
Exactly. You admit that that is what users of the Speed Rating will try to do when it suits their agenda. But then they will later say it is not for historical comparison, or Bill will try to insult our intelligence with hand waving, claiming people don’t know the difference between “absolute” and “relative”, or some other gibberish. The apologists will throw up their hands when called out, and start whining , “it’s a passion project of his he does for free, so if you don’t like it, make up your own”, which is just a diversion to not address the root problem, of it inaccurately portraying athlete’s “speed”.
Exactly. You admit that that is what users of the Speed Rating will try to do when it suits their agenda. But then they will later say it is not for historical comparison, or Bill will try to insult our intelligence with hand waving, claiming people don’t know the difference between “absolute” and “relative”, or some other gibberish. The apologists will throw up their hands when called out, and start whining , “it’s a passion project of his he does for free, so if you don’t like it, make up your own”, which is just a diversion to not address the root problem, of it inaccurately portraying athlete’s “speed”.
It would be world’s better if he changed the name to ‘performance metric’, or some other name without misleadingly using the term “speed” in its name.
Unquestionably, there are athletes toeing the line this year that are faster than Tuohy was.
You're clueless. Cross country is a 5k race. The only runner in this year's race who is as good as Tuohy in a 5k on the track is Leachman but she's not in top shape right now. So right now she's not faster than Tuohy was.
The only girl in this year's race who has run a Tuohy-like 5k in xc this year is Hedengren in her NXR race. But that was only one race, not multiple great xc races like Tuohy had.
So that's just ONE girl who MIGHT be at Tuohy's level, not multiple girls.
No you are clueless.
Hedengren, Engelhardt, Ritz, Blade and Leachman have all run 4:30-35 mile, 9:40-9:50 2 mile, and 15:20-15:45 5000 on the track, and similar xc times as Tuohy.
Engelhardt and Blade have the #1 and #3 all time Woodward Park times. All CA kids run there at Clovis Invite or States. This puts them ahead of Baxter, Hasay, Trotter, Stamps, Oakley, Bei and other CA legends.
Leachman although off was still #2 at NXR South and just won FL South. Even not at 100%, she is still in the hunt at NXN. With an extra week of recovery, she could even win FL again.
Ritz ran faster in the slop last year at NXN than the Touhy, Ewert, Thorvaldson group did in 2019. She's only ever lost in xc twice, both times at NXR Southwest, which is actually only a qualifying heat for nxn. She will probably run her season best on Saturday. Note she was not among the favorites last year when she won in an upset.
Hedengren, of course just beat Ritz by a ton, but Ritz was second there last year, too. Hedengren will go in as the favorite, but the others if healthy are just as good.
All of them are at the Tuohy level and capable of winning nxn. We will see how it goes, where they end up on the all time list (all on same course) and if the course record goes down.
This has nothing to do with speed ratings, just real times. Speed ratings are useful and would predict Hedengren wins by about 20 seconds. Speed rating has nothing to do with the winning time of a race, rather the gap between the leaders and the main pack. A high rating means you won by a lot, not necessarily that you went fast.
well, he has published his NXN predictions based on what you describe as his "idiotically biased" speed ratings, so I guess we will see how he does. Have you published your predictions?
You're clueless. Cross country is a 5k race. The only runner in this year's race who is as good as Tuohy in a 5k on the track is Leachman but she's not in top shape right now. So right now she's not faster than Tuohy was.
The only girl in this year's race who has run a Tuohy-like 5k in xc this year is Hedengren in her NXR race. But that was only one race, not multiple great xc races like Tuohy had.
So that's just ONE girl who MIGHT be at Tuohy's level, not multiple girls.
Hedengren, Engelhardt, Ritz, Blade and Leachman have all run 4:30-35 mile, 9:40-9:50 2 mile, and 15:20-15:45 5000 on the track
Wow, you're still clueless. NONE of them have done that. Only 2 of those 5 girls have run 4:35 or faster in the mile, Engelhardt and Hedengren.
Blade, Ritzenhein, and Engelhardt have never run a 9:50 or faster 2 mile.
And Leachman is the only one out of those 5 girls who has run 15:45 or faster in a track 5k.
Literally NOT ONE of those five girls has run that fast in all of those 3 events.
Why would you post such nonsense on a message board and let everyone know that you have no idea what you're talking about?
Go study track history and come back after you've become more educated.
So in your opinion, any time a course record is broken, that means the whole field is faster than when the prior record was set? Interesting. Some might say the record breaker (just that one runner) is faster than the prior record owner.
That ‘record breaker’ obliterated the record of a course that has been run by thousands of runners. Only one has obliterated it like she did. And yet, all we got from your camp was a wimpy speed and rating that simply couldn’t s not an accurate historical representation of what factually happened: SR you s ‘fake news’, and can thus be considered a disservice.
If Bill wants to try and improve it, he can start by taking the word “speed” out of its name. It is NOT a metric that accurately gauges one’s speed. If it was, we would have seen the speed ratings generally rise upward, as course times have fallen.
And course times obviously have fallen. It’s not just Hedrngren and Englehardt. The number of runners running under a certain time at Woodward Park was at an all-time high this year.
I was curious and to your point I compared the results of 2018, 2022, 2023 and 2024. 2018 and 2022 were very similar, 2023 was just a bit faster (maybe 10 seconds for a given place) but 2024 was a lot faster (maybe 20 seconds faster than 2023 for a given place). So are runners getting a lot faster in the last 2 years, or (maybe) were course conditions a bit better this year? I do not know the answer.
I was curious and to your point I compared the results of 2018, 2022, 2023 and 2024. 2018 and 2022 were very similar, 2023 was just a bit faster (maybe 10 seconds for a given place) but 2024 was a lot faster (maybe 20 seconds faster than 2023 for a given place). So are runners getting a lot faster in the last 2 years,…
Runners have been getting faster, due in part to the Valby tik-tok effect; these latest high-school girls want to be cross-country legends like Valby.
The LetsRun forum does make me smile sometimes … It lets me appreciate most of my horse racing cronies who do not personally attack others because of differing ideas and opinions of handicapping … We simply listen to each other, make up our own minds and bet accordingly … and then go on to the next race with no hatred.
Speed handicapping in horse racing was being practiced before I was born … According to author Andrew Beyer, speed handicappers (name by which they were known) were considered a lunatic fringe of horse players. But Andrew Beyer and a horse player friend (a post-doc math fellow at Harvard) decided to devise a new speed figure method that could actually work.
They devised a method for accurately determining the relative speed of horses at any track based on claiming price (the price the horse could be bought for) and other factors effectively establishing various baselines … In Beyer’s first book, he gave examples of Speed Rate charts and their application … So the Beyer Speed Ratings were born.
And the Beyer Speed Figures have become an important handicapping metric published in the DRF (Daily Racing Form) used by many horse players.
I borrowed the concept and the Speed Rating name for High School Cross Country applying new adaptations to extend the concept.
Dictionary Definitions: Speed - the rate at which someone or something is able to move or operate. Rating - a classification or ranking of someone or something based on a comparative assessment of their quality, standard, or performance.
And that is what my Speed Ratings are and they are properly named.
And with reference to this statement about me: “But yet you think Billy Boy can, when his infamous ‘speed ratings’ have generally not gone up while times have certainly gone down.”
The word “relative” has a very specific meaning in my method … If everybody’s race times go down equally overall (meaning baseline adjustment), the Speed Ratings DO NOT and should not go up – and that is a concept that is not understood or disliked by some people who do understand (they think faster is better).
Leachman was fast on the track last year but she hasn't been healthy the last few months. Ritzenhein just got beat by about 40 seconds at NXR.
Blade set the course record at Woodbridge in September but it was the first year that course was used so obviously it had to be the course record. Plus that course is pancake flat running around soccer fields unlike a true xc course. Engelhardt had one very good race in October but outside of that she hasn't done anything special.
I think that people are forgetting just how good Tuohy was in xc her senior year when she was demolishing course records almost every week.
This is a rough all time list at Glendoveer, we'll see how they do.
1. Tuohy jr 16:37
2. Riggs sr 16:40
3. Tuohy soph 16:44
4. Efraimson sr 16:50
5. Cranny sr 16:53
6. Chmiel sr 16:54
7. Rainsberger sr 16:56
8. Baxter sr 16:58
9. Ewert jr 17:06
10. Ritzenhein soph 17:10 cold&wet
11. Oakley sr 17:10
12. Covert jr 17:10
13. Walters jr 17:13
14. Michalak 17:16 cold&wet
15. Tuohy sr 17:18 cold&wet
16. Ostrander sr 17:19
17. Rauber soph 17:19
18. Ewert sr 17:19 cold&wet
19. Thorvaldson jr 17:19 cold&wet
Weren't Efrainson, Baxter and perhaps some others at Portland Meadows - a completely different course?
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