After that, nobody seems attractive. Rocky Mountain got lucky to beat Crater having an off day, and neither team looked "hot" in the slightest.
Vandegrift looked OK at best, and we know they're legit, but again, they aren't "hot".
Jesuit LA has been solid for several years, but has done nothing of particular note this year, and I think the South, while being better for their top 2 teams than NW, and Midwest is a weaker region for #4-8 than either of these regions.
Midwest is not only down this year in terms of depth, but 3rd and 4th have done absolutely nothing of note.
Northeast was only 11 points difference, but the region has never been strong outside of the #1 team each year.
Southeast wasn't close.
New York is a joke.
So now that leaves California, which is also pretty down from where they've been in the past.
If Great Oak get's 1st or 2nd, I think it will be: American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift, with the last spot going to Rocky Mountain for beating Great Oak at Firman.
If Great Oak doesn't autoqualify, then I think something like American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift, Ridgefield.
Honestly the committee might have to look for quality losses for the last couple at-large spots, considering none of the teams have really done a whole lot.
After that, nobody seems attractive. Rocky Mountain got lucky to beat Crater having an off day, and neither team looked "hot" in the slightest.
Vandegrift looked OK at best, and we know they're legit, but again, they aren't "hot".
Jesuit LA has been solid for several years, but has done nothing of particular note this year, and I think the South, while being better for their top 2 teams than NW, and Midwest is a weaker region for #4-8 than either of these regions.
Midwest is not only down this year in terms of depth, but 3rd and 4th have done absolutely nothing of note.
Northeast was only 11 points difference, but the region has never been strong outside of the #1 team each year.
Southeast wasn't close.
New York is a joke.
So now that leaves California, which is also pretty down from where they've been in the past.
If Great Oak get's 1st or 2nd, I think it will be: American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift, with the last spot going to Rocky Mountain for beating Great Oak at Firman.
If Great Oak doesn't autoqualify, then I think something like American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift, Ridgefield.
Honestly the committee might have to look for quality losses for the last couple at-large spots, considering none of the teams have really done a whole lot.
After that, nobody seems attractive. Rocky Mountain got lucky to beat Crater having an off day, and neither team looked "hot" in the slightest.
Vandegrift looked OK at best, and we know they're legit, but again, they aren't "hot".
Jesuit LA has been solid for several years, but has done nothing of particular note this year, and I think the South, while being better for their top 2 teams than NW, and Midwest is a weaker region for #4-8 than either of these regions.
Midwest is not only down this year in terms of depth, but 3rd and 4th have done absolutely nothing of note.
Northeast was only 11 points difference, but the region has never been strong outside of the #1 team each year.
Southeast wasn't close.
New York is a joke.
So now that leaves California, which is also pretty down from where they've been in the past.
If Great Oak get's 1st or 2nd, I think it will be: American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift, with the last spot going to Rocky Mountain for beating Great Oak at Firman.
If Great Oak doesn't autoqualify, then I think something like American Fork, Taylorsville, Vandegrift, Ridgefield.
Honestly the committee might have to look for quality losses for the last couple at-large spots, considering none of the teams have really done a whole lot.
Why do you have ridgefield here?
It was one of the closest 2nd to 3rd races in any region, and they might be able to ride the CBA wave.
I think California will have 2 boys get individual at large bids this year because of how deep they are. Assuming every California boy who individually qualified last year returns to NXN, we have Evan Noonan, Broen Holman, Eli Fitchen-young, & Aydon Stefanopoulos returning. I believe the other 3 auto-qualifiers will be between 4 runners: Griffin Kushen, Landon Pretre, Trey Caldwell, & Eyan Turk.
Part of me wants to say Maximo Zavaleta because he was the #1 California runner at Woodbridge this year but I have not seen anything since that would back it up.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
I think California will have 2 boys get individual at large bids this year because of how deep they are. Assuming every California boy who individually qualified last year returns to NXN, we have Evan Noonan, Broen Holman, Eli Fitchen-young, & Aydon Stefanopoulos returning. I believe the other 3 auto-qualifiers will be between 4 runners: Griffin Kushen, Landon Pretre, Trey Caldwell, & Eyan Turk.
Part of me wants to say Maximo Zavaleta because he was the #1 California runner at Woodbridge this year but I have not seen anything since that would back it up.
There are no individual at-larges this year and even if they were, they would all go to the southwest and northwest
You are wrong. California is exceptionally deep this year that makes me think otherwise. What evidence do you have that there are no individual at-larges this year?
I think it will be 2 SW, 1 CA team, and one South.
Bridgeland girls team missed NXN by 1 point, but they beat an autoqualifiers at state.
Not sure if CA will get two girls at large teams because last year Buchanan is the only CA girls team that finished high at NXN. The NXN conditions got the best of California.
But it also wouldn’t be surprising if it’s 2 CA and 2 SW for girls
Buchanan, Trabuco Hills, Santiago Corona, and JSerra are all highly ranked.
You are wrong. California is exceptionally deep this year that makes me think otherwise. What evidence do you have that there are no individual at-larges this year?
I can't say for sure this is absolutely correct, but the NXN FAQ here sure looks like there won't be:
It talks about at-large team qualifications, but for individuals, it just says this:
-- CAN INDIVIDUALS QUALIFY TO NIKE CROSS NATIONALS? Yes, the top five individual boys and girls from non-qualifying clubs in the championship race at each regional will earn individual spots to NXN in Portland.
--
They don't mention at-larges for individuals.
Probably better this way, so more of the better individuals go to FL.
You are wrong. California is exceptionally deep this year that makes me think otherwise. What evidence do you have that there are no individual at-larges this year?
No at-large individuals this year. Like Bo, I just know.
Anyone think SE will get one. Apart of the 3rd place team and trying to research. I don’t think it’s likely but just wanted to hear it out. We weren’t even honorable mention rankings and beat Marvin Ridge, McCallie, and Knoxville Catholic
Taylorsville beat Rocky by over 60 points and was 100 points out of third at NXR SW but only 14 points out of 7th. They were closer to Herriman at NXR SW than they were at Firman, where they were 11 seconds up on Rocky. Taylorsville is showing they are getting better.
Rocky STILL didn’t run as fast at NXR as Taylorsville did at Firman despite it being their third attempt at the course in much better weather, and only 6 seconds faster than they did at Firman on average time.
Rocky would have been 7th-9th at NXR SW. Vandegrift gets one, then it will be whoever is the third CA team.
Why should a CA team get one?
Also how is Great Oak looking, they were beaten by Rocky at Firman. If they win or get 2nd in CA, that shifts things
They could possibly get one if Arnold Beckman, Great Oak, and Jesuit end up very close together in the state meet merge and far away from all other teams.
Great Oak might have to autoqualify though. Today was their best day of the season now that Westin Brown is back
Anyone think SE will get one. Apart of the 3rd place team and trying to research. I don’t think it’s likely but just wanted to hear it out. We weren’t even honorable mention rankings and beat Marvin Ridge, McCallie, and Knoxville Catholic
no as far as im aware you dont get credit for beating teams that maybe had a chance at qualifying. You get credit for beating teams that did qualify or finishing very close to them at regionals, and 3rd a SE was way off 2nd.
AF will 100% get in. Taylorsville is doubtful. 100 points behind AF. Top 5, were 20 seconds slower avg than AF. Too big of a gap. Looking good for Rocky Mountain.
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You are wrong. California is exceptionally deep this year that makes me think otherwise. What evidence do you have that there are no individual at-larges this year?
No at-large individuals this year. Like Bo, I just know.
No individual at-larges this year is insane. CIF meet next week is gonna be an absolute dogfight. I wouldn't be shocked to see 2-3 14:30s across all divisions, weather dependent of course. It's a really deep year.
AF will 100% get in. Taylorsville is doubtful. 100 points behind AF. Top 5, were 20 seconds slower avg than AF. Too big of a gap. Looking good for Rocky Mountain.
What is the argument for Rocky over Taylorsville?
Rocky still hasn’t run as fast on their home course as Taylorsville did on a hot September day, despite running it three times and training on it. Taylorsville is racing closer to Herriman than they were at Firman. They are running just fine, the SW is just crazy and Niwot and Herriman are legit.
Do you think the committee is going to reward the team that absolutely would have finished 4th place if one of the top 10 guys in the country wasn’t obviously broken? Rocky placing 3rd instead of 4th was a fluke and I’m guessing they will continue to get punished for intentionally never racing anyone unless it’s on the course they train on.