Beating Hagos is a race 40s slower than WR pace says nothing about Jakob’s potential.
If the 1500m was won in 3:43 and Hobbs Kessler easily beat Jakob in the last 150m it would not indicate that Hobbs was in WR shape.
3:43 1500m and 13:13 5K are not comparable. Plus, Hagos has dropped under 2:30 for his final kilometer in a fast 5000m. He did last year in Monaco when he ran 12:42. Given Jakob's youth, range of elite speed, and Three Gold Medals in the 5000m as well as having a 5K PB of 12:48 (he beat Gebrhiwet in that race too). You can't possibly tell me he doesn't have larger reserves.
I imagine the way you do - if he can run 7:17 in the 3k imagine slowing down to like 7:31-32 in the 5000. That is a huge slow down but of course it's harder than I'm making it sound. I'm arguing for 12:30 but I it is my opinion he is able to hit 12:35 and set a WR.
Using the 3k as a measure for 5k potential is not realistic. It is only a little over half the distance. It would be similar to saying what you would think would be the predictable 1500 time of an 800 runner. There isn't a consistent ratio when these distances are nearly doubled. They are different events. Ingebrigtsen won't show what he is really capable of over the 5k until he goes for time over the distance. A tactical championship race isn't that measure. El G was capable of beating the best in a 5k championship race, as he did in Athens, but he wasn't a true exponent of that distance.
The greatest 5k/10k runners mentioned above were not 1500 specialists, as Ingebrigtsen is. He is faster over the shorter distance but his peak appears to be the 2k-3k. So far he hasn't shown the endurance of the best 5k runners, who were also 10k exponents. Again, there isn't anything that Ingebrigtsen has so far done to show he has the endurance that extends to excelling over 10k. His HM is not a great recommendation.
3000m is a V02 Max Event along with anything above it.
800m is very Anaerobic to compared to the 1500m. Most 800m runners prefer to run 400m over the 1500m.
As well, Hagos Gebrhiwet is 6 years older than Jakob. You're telling me a 24 year old who has basically the World Record in every distance below isn't capable of running a tad slower for five more minutes?
As for it being a tactical race, so what? That makes Gebrhiwet look bad not Jakob. Some guy who runs 1500m year-round bested you at your own distance. Plus, it's not like Hagos is slow or something, He's run 7:30 for the 3000m and been dropping Sub-12:50 for the 5000m for a decade.
Hagos being a poor tactician still does not indicate anything additional for Jakob is the point.
I don't put a figure on it - I was being facetious, based on your user name. His best is a long way from the wr. He hasn't improved on that time in over 3 years and yet this is a guy who says he wants the records and goes for them. Is wave-light not available over the 5k? I think his best distances are between 2k and 2 miles. I think it extremely unlikely he breaks the 5k wr.
This post was edited 28 seconds after it was posted.
I don't put a figure on it - I was being facetious, based on your user name. His best is a long way from the wr. He hasn't improved on that time in over 3 years and yet this is a guy who says he wants the records and goes for them. Is wave-light not available over the 5k? I think his best distances are between 2k and 2 miles. I think it extremely unlikely he breaks the 5k wr.
I think the next time he runs a late-season paced/wavelighted 5000 he runs 12:33 or 12:34. The 5000 is only 55% longer than the two miles.
I don't put a figure on it - I was being facetious, based on your user name. His best is a long way from the wr. He hasn't improved on that time in over 3 years and yet this is a guy who says he wants the records and goes for them. Is wave-light not available over the 5k? I think his best distances are between 2k and 2 miles. I think it extremely unlikely he breaks the 5k wr.
Yeah, no reason to believe that he has improved his 5k time. His 3k WR and theee championship golds does not say anything about his 5k ability.
I don't put a figure on it - I was being facetious, based on your user name. His best is a long way from the wr. He hasn't improved on that time in over 3 years and yet this is a guy who says he wants the records and goes for them. Is wave-light not available over the 5k? I think his best distances are between 2k and 2 miles. I think it extremely unlikely he breaks the 5k wr.
Yeah, no reason to believe that he has improved his 5k time. His 3k WR and theee championship golds does not say anything about his 5k ability.
Those records say a lot about his ability over those distances. So why hasn't he similarly improved his 5k time in over 3 years, when he says he wants all the records?
So he doesn't want the record? He's happy with 2k to 2 miles? Posters here claim the 5k is his "best" distance but he doesn't seem very determined to show that by going for the wr. Maybe he knows something fans don't.
So he doesn't want the record? He's happy with 2k to 2 miles? Posters here claim the 5k is his "best" distance but he doesn't seem very determined to show that by going for the wr. Maybe he knows something fans don't.
Maybe people who follow the sport know something you don't. Definitely this.
So he doesn't want the record? He's happy with 2k to 2 miles? Posters here claim the 5k is his "best" distance but he doesn't seem very determined to show that by going for the wr. Maybe he knows something fans don't.
Maybe people who follow the sport know something you don't. Definitely this.
What is it they know that has stopped him improving his best time over the 5k in 3 years?
What is it they know that has stopped him improving his best time over the 5k in 3
Ingebrigtsen only runs the 5000 in championship events where he is typically doubling with the 1500. He’s not going to waste energy running fast times when he can consistently win tactical 13:xx races.
The venue for a fast 5K would be the DL rather than a championship final. But Ingebrigtsen has used the DL to focus on running fast times over other distances—1500 (3:26), mile (3:43), 2K (WB), 3K (WR), 2 miles (WB).
So he doesn't want the record? He's happy with 2k to 2 miles? Posters here claim the 5k is his "best" distance but he doesn't seem very determined to show that by going for the wr. Maybe he knows something fans don't.
On one occasion you've claimed that he's too stupid to realize he isn't in HM WR shape. Yet here you think he's "smart" enough to realize he isn't in 5000m WR shape. How can both of these be true at the same time?
I'm done doubting his ability to beat the 5000 WR. I find the claims that he could go sub 12:30 unrealistic, though.
But does he actually stand a chance at the 10000 WR? No current athlete has got closer than 20".
He weights aprox. 15 kg more than Chep and 20 more than Kiplimo/Aregawi/Barega.
Considering he would have to run the last 5000 alone, isn't his morphology (1'87/75 kg) too "big" for wind resistance, heat dissipation...
...and carrying these 74/75 kg every stride?
For instance, Joshua is pretty tall for a distance runner (1.83) but below 60 kg, so he benefits from stride length without the "big" (again, for a distance runner) frame.
Kejelcha is barely his same height weighting at least 15 kg less.
TL;DR: Jakob's frame could be too big for 10000 & up distances.
I just wrote about this on another thread, but if he is serious about the 10000m he needs to start thinking about running some real soon. He doesn't have an endlessly open window for peak performance which just keeps being extended as he chooses to go up distance.
These records are still really good - I don't think "twilight of his career" Jakob can just step out there and have them on a platter. I'm still surprised people think it's feasible he spends 3-4 hard years trying to put away the 1500m record and will then simply be like "now I will spend the next 3-4 trying to put away the 5 and 10". He can move up in distance and still be uber competitive - maybe even the worlds best at a key spot like the OG's (like El G over 5000m) but the breaking the WR's is going to need him at his absolute career best and those days are now.
Like you I do think he has the ability to beat the 5000m WR - absolutely, but it's in 2025 and 26 at the latest. I just don't see a 10000m focus falling into that timeframe.
Someone mentioned the 26.59 of Solinsky and how if he could do that then surely Jakob at a much higher level of talent should be considerably faster. Again sure, but Solinksy also did this at his careers peak performance apex. Jakob past his peak could still be better than that - not 47 seconds better though.
What is it they know that has stopped him improving his best time over the 5k in 3
Ingebrigtsen only runs the 5000 in championship events where he is typically doubling with the 1500. He’s not going to waste energy running fast times when he can consistently win tactical 13:xx races.
The venue for a fast 5K would be the DL rather than a championship final. But Ingebrigtsen has used the DL to focus on running fast times over other distances—1500 (3:26), mile (3:43), 2K (WB), 3K (WR), 2 miles (WB).
But you knew all this Armstronglivs
So you're effectively saying he doesn't want the record even improve on his best time from 3 years ago. That doesn't sound like the guy who says he wants all the records.
So he doesn't want the record? He's happy with 2k to 2 miles? Posters here claim the 5k is his "best" distance but he doesn't seem very determined to show that by going for the wr. Maybe he knows something fans don't.
On one occasion you've claimed that he's too stupid to realize he isn't in HM WR shape. Yet here you think he's "smart" enough to realize he isn't in 5000m WR shape. How can both of these be true at the same time?
He had never run the HM before. So his ego overestimated his abilities over that distance. He has run the 5k enough times to see the wr isn't going to be an easy option for him. So he hasn't gone for it.
I just wrote about this on another thread, but if he is serious about the 10000m he needs to start thinking about running some real soon. He doesn't have an endlessly open window for peak performance which just keeps being extended as he chooses to go up distance.
These records are still really good - I don't think "twilight of his career" Jakob can just step out there and have them on a platter. I'm still surprised people think it's feasible he spends 3-4 hard years trying to put away the 1500m record and will then simply be like "now I will spend the next 3-4 trying to put away the 5 and 10". He can move up in distance and still be uber competitive - maybe even the worlds best at a key spot like the OG's (like El G over 5000m) but the breaking the WR's is going to need him at his absolute career best and those days are now.
Like you I do think he has the ability to beat the 5000m WR - absolutely, but it's in 2025 and 26 at the latest. I just don't see a 10000m focus falling into that timeframe.
Someone mentioned the 26.59 of Solinsky and how if he could do that then surely Jakob at a much higher level of talent should be considerably faster. Again sure, but Solinksy also did this at his careers peak performance apex. Jakob past his peak could still be better than that - not 47 seconds better though.
To be fair, Hagos Gebrhiwet did PR/Nearly set a WR at the ripe age of 30. 12:36 5000m ain't no joke, he could very well attack the 10,000m WR and have an equal chance of it as Joshua Cheptegei did in 2020. I'd say Jakob has until atleast the 2028 Olympics to take the 10,000m seriously. After all, Gebrselassie did go Sub-26:30 at age 30 in 2003.
As long as Jakob can
1) Be in Sub-3:30 1500m fitness
and
2) Get the WR in the 5000m or Have broken the 12:40 Barrier in the 5K
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