Our race preview is now up and we've been told that the pacing lights will be set for 3:30. We will try to confirm that at the pre-race press conference which has been delayed as Jakob's flight was delayed.
"El Guerrouj literally wiped out the previous mark of 3:27:37 which had been set by Aleria's Noureddine Morceli almost three years ago to the day, on 12 July 1995, in Nice.His split times were: 400m 0.55; 800: 1:50.73; 1100: 2:32.73, 1200: 2:46.34 - 39.66 for the last 300 metres!"
Your arguments just overall really remind me of the people in 2021 who were saying Cole Hocker was a 3:35 guy after winning USOT's with 25 second last 200 in 3:35. Or the million and a half threads who keep saying "Jakob can't POSSIBLY run faster than this, he just set his lifetime PR". I just think you undersell him a bit for whatever reason. His Monaco race this year was not within 0.3 seconds of his lifetime genetic potential
Well that's okay - I wasn't one of those people. I wrote lengthy posts at the time about Hocker and the historical excellence of his splits in those races and how that compared with the likes of Morceli - who of course also ran 3.27.
I "undersell Jakob"? Because I don't think he can run under 3.26.00? Is that a joke? I mean literally 2 weeks ago I said that I thought he was going to destroy the 3000m record and then I had the same ilk of idiot accuse me of being too much of a Jakob fanboy - so what is it - hater or fanboy? Nice thing about this is someone is going to be right and someone is going to be wrong. Feel free to call me out over the next 2-3 years if 3.26.00 goes down - I'll be happy to be wrong.
This post was edited 57 seconds after it was posted.
Ingebrigsten is not a 1500m runner. He's just so good that he can run any of the 6 events absurdly fast. He already ran insane marks for the 2000, 3000 and 2mile. 3 events left.
I believe he has a very good shot at the Mile and 5000m. That would be records #4 and #5
Will he break the 1500m record? I doubt it. He's a 3k guy. If he ever held all 6 records they would have to name the sport after him. That kind of dominance would simply be too much.
I'm guessing he finishes with 5 of the 6 records, and a #2 or #3 performance in the 1500m.
Will we see a world lead (sub 3:26.73), possibly with Nuguse right behind Ingebrigtsen like at Pre last year in the mile? Would love to see Nuguse break 3:27 if Ingebrigtsen goes 3:26 in Brussels, but he won a 3:29 race in Zurich which doesn't mean he's in 3:26 fitness especially since his PB is currently 3:27.80 from the Olympics, probably after a peak. Though, Nuguse did run 3:43 in the mile this time last year, so we'll see if he's still in top fitness.
After Ingebrigtsen's 3K record he may be able to beat his 1500 PB given he's fully healthy & rested, the pacing is good, and the weather cooperates. Ingebrigtsen is probably still 1-2 more personal bests away from breaking El G's world record though. Needs a couple more 3:26.XX's before 3:25.XX.
Thoughts?
I strongly doubt we will see a WR in Brussels. I think Jakob's sickness took a lot of out of him after a very very stressful year. Obviously I have no way of knowing his system or fitness but that assumption seems pretty reasonable. I also think that while Jakob may be capable of running a WR on a perfect day with a perfect pace, I don't think he has shown to be able to run in the 3:26.5 range consistently, which I feel he would need to demonstrate as a 1500/5000 type runner to give him a serious shot at 3:25 now at the end of the season with everything that has happened this year.
However, I also think it's safe to assume he's recovered from his sickness well enough to run well, and will run something very fast - I think at least low 3:27s (3:27.1-2), quite possibly a world lead (3:26.5ish). I also think Hocker will not be the first American - Nuguse will, and I think as with last year, he will be right with Jakob. Assuming a fast race, I would not be surprised to see the American record go down.
Does anyone know if Laros is running? I would love to see him take another shot at the U20 WR.
How long can these guys stay sharp after the Olympics? WR seems unlikely.
It seems like the times will only be slower as time elapses, but I've been impressed with how fast guys are still running.
Can we please ban Khamis? It was a decent thread before he barged in filled it with absolute junk. Happened on a bunch of other threads too the past few months.
I blocked him and armstronglivs about a month ago. Letsrun has been so much better ever since.
Even if nobody breaks 3:26, if Jakob can repeat a 3:26 performance, he would join El Guerrouj as the only other man to go under 3:27 twice
I think this is a salient point that is really overlooked. Not only would he be the only man to do it twice, it would be the third time it's ever been done in a season as El G only did it twice in 98 and 02.
What's the takeaway? No matter how good or great you are it's really, really freaking hard to do even once, let alone multiple times. I would be surprised this race went sub 3.27 and I would be absolutely stunned if it even was in the ballpark of the WR.
But here is the nice/slightly boring thing - we are going to know exactly what the intentions are when the wavelight data is released because these days we can predict almost to the tenth of a second how at least the first 800m is going to be run no matter what his fitness level is (as we were able to do in Monaco, Lausanne, Zurich....). So if we see 55.6, 1.51.5, 2.46.0 from the lights (wait - isn't this a "final", why the f--k do we have pacing?) - then we know Jakob wants his comfort zone 56.0, 1.51.7, 2.46.7 and we best case might get close to a 3.27.0 clocking give or take a few tenths either side of it. The only chance we see even a WR attempt is if the pacing is 55.0, 1.50.4, 2.45.6 - something like that and we haven't even see anything close to this commitment from him yet.
Final point, as with Zurich (which didn't happen), I think winning this race takes priority over time. I think this matters to him and I think that taking on the risk of going after the WR, or even a super quick time, at this point in the season after all these races and efforts is too high a risk and understandably so.
Will 3.26.00 fall this Friday? No.
Well stated and I agree that, no it will not happen. There are tons of lately. Jakob critics, and I say? Of what? He tees it up probably more than anyone, he runs every big race out there almost. That's my biggest note of respect, may get beat, may not break the xyz record. But man? His consistency of high level performances is almost , if unmatched? I would have thought the 7:17.x would have been enough? Or his 3:52 last 1600 or 3:51 , in 5K would have sealed, I think that some will never be satisfied. Other guys are trying too..
I strongly doubt we will see a WR in Brussels. I think Jakob's sickness took a lot of out of him after a very very stressful year. Obviously I have no way of knowing his system or fitness but that assumption seems pretty reasonable. I also think that while Jakob may be capable of running a WR on a perfect day with a perfect pace, I don't think he has shown to be able to run in the 3:26.5 range consistently, which I feel he would need to demonstrate as a 1500/5000 type runner to give him a serious shot at 3:25 now at the end of the season with everything that has happened this year.
However, I also think it's safe to assume he's recovered from his sickness well enough to run well, and will run something very fast - I think at least low 3:27s (3:27.1-2), quite possibly a world lead (3:26.5ish). I also think Hocker will not be the first American - Nuguse will, and I think as with last year, he will be right with Jakob. Assuming a fast race, I would not be surprised to see the American record go down.
Does anyone know if Laros is running? I would love to see him take another shot at the U20 WR.
How long can these guys stay sharp after the Olympics? WR seems unlikely.
It seems like the times will only be slower as time elapses, but I've been impressed with how fast guys are still running.
I think actually it might be that Ingebrigtsen might not have peaked to his liking for the 1500 at the Olympics because of simultaneously trying to peak at the 5000, and while trying to do so after a 3 months delay in the buildup.
Interesting you ask, although I know you didn’t ask me. However, although these running performance calculators are much less than perfect, I find them interesting sometimes. If you look at Jakob, this might simply be about where he is at his best currently:
Well if you plug in 1:44.5, which he has not come close to (with few attempts), but maybe can, and 7:17.55, you get 3:26.72. So it is not as if 3:26 is in his wheelhouse. That calculator implies he would need 1:43.7 ability to break 3:26 wotr his 7:17.55, for what it is worth.
It doesn’t necessarily work that way. You are saying Jakob needs one or two more personal bests at 1500m before actually getting the world record. This is a misconception. Jakob didn’t need that at 2 miles. Jakob isn’t really equipped to run 3:25xx. It is not that he needs more personal bests.
Jakob has run 3:26.7, under the right circumstances he can run under 3:26, unlike say Kerr, who will never beat his Paris run.
Jakob has run 3:26.7, under the right circumstances he can run under 3:26, unlike say Kerr, who will never beat his Paris run.
Important point. Good to remember.
Kerr had his perfect race thanks to brilliant pacing by Jakob for 1300m—you could almost call it a time trial!
Unfortunately—it wasn’t good enough. Cole MF Shocker won the gold. Kerr will never run faster than Paris—and he will never win another Olympic medal. By the time LA rolls around, he will be 30—middle aged!! Cheers to a great career Josh!
Jakob has run 3:26.7, under the right circumstances he can run under 3:26, unlike say Kerr, who will never beat his Paris run.
Important point. Good to remember.
Kerr had his perfect race thanks to brilliant pacing by Jakob for 1300m—you could almost call it a time trial!
Unfortunately—it wasn’t good enough. Cole MF Shocker won the gold. Kerr will never run faster than Paris—and he will never win another Olympic medal. By the time LA rolls around, he will be 30—middle aged!! Cheers to a great career Josh!
Kerr will age out… but he’s been ruined mentally anyhow after the beatings in Paris and Zurich. Jakob is only going on 24… Kessler is only 21, Cole is only 23. And the elephant in the room is 19 yr old Laros running 3:29 coming off injury. Never mind what Wanyoni might be capable of should he move up. He ran a great road mile earlier this year, looked very strong.
"El Guerrouj literally wiped out the previous mark of 3:27:37 which had been set by Aleria's Noureddine Morceli almost three years ago to the day, on 12 July 1995, in Nice.His split times were: 400m 0.55; 800: 1:50.73; 1100: 2:32.73, 1200: 2:46.34 - 39.66 for the last 300 metres!"
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