Centro's was flukier. Who would have ever thought the race would play out like that, or that no one could ever move around him?
Hocker's race went exactly as anticipated. Only shock was that his kick was there in a fast race, twice even.
Both well earned.
In 2016 Centro and his coaches knew exactly how the race was going to go if it went out slowly. He adamantly fought for the lead position and had to have trained to run that kind of race with a 50.low last lap.
He beat some incredible 800m runners who were insanely good 1500m racers, including a 3:26.69 guy and Taoufik Makhloufi, an Olympic gold medalist in the 1500m and silver medalist in the 800m.
Wasn't a fluke at all.
I think yall are not sure what the word means. People were out of their minds surprised Centro won. There have been 150 threads on it. So it certainly was a little bit of a fluke. Huge underdog? No. Deserving win, yes. Flukie = fluke like.
Both well earned. Centro impresses me a little more because he basically won a 400m race that everyone had a shot in. Hocker sat & used his crazy finish to win, exposing Jakob's poor tactics/showing that the best runners can make mistakes.
Each planned and trained for their respective situations.
Centro knew if he was on the rail at the front at the bell he could unleash the 50.x 400 he specifically trained for. His session of Tempo run then 4x400 @ sub 50 before Rio was AlSals final workout with this tactic exactly in mind. Keep in mind that all the athlete's in the final were keen on sit and kick plus the Rio final was delayed 15 minutes and the athlete's were held up standing in the very hot stadium before starting with no chance to warmup again...definetely adding to the slow pace and playing into Centro's plan.
Hocker knew he had the best final 100 out of every 1500 runner that can also run sub 3:30. After increasing his strength all year and hitting 8 flat at 2 mile, he knew his tactic to win would be to stay on the rail the whole race, hang on for dear life, then burn everyone down the final straight.
Both knew their path to victory.
Both executed perfectly.
I agree that they both played to their strengths and executed perfectly. That said, I believe Centro's win was more of a fluke.
If you reran these races over and over, in my mind there's a lot of scenarios where Centro's not even on the podium. Hocker, less so.
Hocker: When your OLY Trials #2 & #3 finish third and fifth in the Oly Final, it’s shouldn’t be too surprising when your #1 wins, especially when all three ran 3:30-3:31 at the trials. Not a fluke.
Centro: His strategy depended on the others letting him lead at the pace he wanted. They did (not surprisingly; no one wanted to lead back then), and he won. Not a fluke.
Centro's win was definitely flukier. All he had done before his 2016 gold was finish 4th in 2012 and win two medals at Worlds. Centro was so obscure at the time that rojo couldn't even pronounce his last name correctly.
Centro's by a mile. If the pace were legit, he could not sit. Hocker kicked off of a pace that stretched out the field from the gun.
This is the correct answer. As the media pointed out ad nauseum that year, Mikey Brannigan ran a faster time than Centro. It also appears that Hocker’s kick is comparatively better after several 1500 rounds than it is in a well-rested DL race.
you have obviously never run a 50.low or faster 400m.
Centro won in a slow race, but it was Centro who dictated the pace. Tactically that was his best chance and he made it happen. He's fortunate that no one else wanted to lead a fast race, but that's usually a dubious strategy in championship racing.
Hocker won a very fast race, but it was Jakob who dictated the race tactics. Hocker, as an outstanding kicker who (in retrospect) could still kick in a fast race, probably has a better tool set to win races regardless of the race tactics, but was fortunate that the inside lane opened up on the final straight.
I find Centro's win more impressive because he made the race unfold the only way he stood any real chance of winning it, but it was by design not by "fluke".
I don't buy that Centro dictated the pace in that race, because I don't think you can dictate the pace of a 3:50. That kind of pace can only be arrived at by consensus. There were plenty of runners who were probably making a strategic mistake by not going faster, and any one of them could have chosen to push the pace but didn't.
I think since Peter Rono in 1988, only two Olympic 1500m gold medalists have gone on to lose their next two races - Centro in 2016, and Hocker in 2024.
Whose gold do you consider the flukiest?
A fluke would be Raygun winning a medal. Stop embarrassing yourself trying to discredit either one of these gold medalists. I haven't heard of any of the other runners in the either final saying that they lost due to a fluke.
Definitely Centro's. His race was exceptionally slow. Cole Hocker won in an olympic record time and demonstrated that even a very hard pace doesn't neutralize his kick!
- if you look at Centro's winning time, you might say 'yes it was a fluke.' But, as soon as you look at Centro's championship record, you realize his victory wasn't a fluke; his olympic gold was just the ultimate expression of the athlete, namely a championship runner and not a time trialer.
Yeah people underestimate the hell out of Centro b/c his 2016 win was slow.
He was the best championship 1500m runner in the world for half a decade. There's literally only two other guys from 2011 - 2016 who have better medal records -- one of them's a confirmed doper and the other's Makhloufi.
Don't you guys get it? There are no upsets in athletics. That's the whole point.
Upsets are for team sports like football and hockey, where fans are holding a beer for most of the game. (Yes I like football and hockey.)
That is not true. There are literally thousands of upsets in Athletics at all levels from high school to college to the Olympics! There are upsets in every sport, that is why we play the game. We do not play it to just play it!
Centro got his first medal, bronze, at WC in 2011. Watch the race with a lap to go -- as the field jockeys for position, Centro does not react and accelerate, he gets passed. He's able to recover position and kick for 3rd. Pretty good for a man inexperienced at the very top level.
Watch the 2016 Olympic final. With a lap to go, the field rushes for position. Some of the same guys from the 2011 WC final fight for position (Iguider) -- but Centro defends his position, yet does not waste energy trying to gap the field there. Smart racing instincts, strength and speed result in gold.
The difference between Cole and Matthew in winning gold? Centro knew he could win. Hocker believed, and saw it more clearly. The result is the same.
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