Northwest XC 2024

northwest is definitely in the running for the worst region. Really no good teams in it, that being said given last years result I have a hard time seeing Jesuit place in the top 10 at nxr this year much less being in any position to qualify for nxn

So CDA looks like they will put 2 in front of Rocky's one, another in front of their 2, but then Rocky will put their 3-5 in front of CDA's 4 and their 6 in front of CDA's 5.

Putting Rocky's speed ratings from a known course into Farragut, Rocky would have placed 3rd, 6th, 8th, 14th, and 17th. Rocky would have scored 48 points and narrowly beat CDA... However, CDA currently has one big injury and was also racing three guys that have limited varsity experience. I imagine CDA's younger guys will see some big improvements.

While the injury will definitely be a big deal for CDA once they return to a full lineup, the Rocky guys have 3 on their varsity who were previously pretty far back in JV because of Rocky's depth (like 10-15).

Granted the CDA guys have multiple freshman on varsity, but I don't know how lenient I would be on the young guns making tons of improvement. If Strava is accurate, and the CDA young guns were doing 70-80 mile weeks, I have a hard time seeing them getting much faster throughout the season apart from getting into races with better competition.

Woodbridge will be a great indicator of how the top Idaho team stacks against the tentative top Oregon team.

Rocky has Lucas, Tuft, Kurtz, and Thomas with significant varsity cross experience. Goggins is a hard one because he ended up getting hurt last year, but he was absolutely a tail end varsity guy for them and at least has some experience racing at a high level from track. Godfrey and Clark are new varsity guys, but they aren't cracking the top 5 for Rocky unless something has gone seriously wrong.

That's a bit different than having a sophomore as your #4 that has never run a varsity race before this meet and having two freshmen on your varsity squad.

Woodbridge will be interesting for CDA with the young guys. Is CDA the first Idaho team to ever go?

Eagle High School went last year, but they weren't in the sweepstakes, and were a non-factor in the race they did get in.

CDA if almost certainly the first Idaho team to get in the sweeps.

They aren’t, but one of them finished close to their top 5, so now they have a little bit of cushion in case one of their scorers have an off-race

Looks like they had a boy in the sweeps so that changes things for them since they weren't running their #1. Still wouldn't have won their section, though.

Looks like both teams are in the rated sections this year.

CDA is heavily reliant on freshman. They have some good ones but I doubt they have anyone capable of breaking 16 this year. Heule (Soph) will at the 509 which will give them 4.

50/50 shot to make NXN

Next year will be rough. Maybe top 3 at State while the younger kids develop.

CDA's best team might be Wyatt Carr's senior year. He will among the nation's best and the crew behind him will all be sub 15:30.

MAGIC BALL - Top 3 NXN

Next year they will also have Rietze back, and he will be the only senior on their varsity, so you’re right that they could have a historic season in 2026

Look how young a solid Bozeman is. That’s the team that won NXN in 2016. Definitely watch out for this team next year

athletic.net

Track & Field and Cross Country Statistics

Rankings for middle school, high school, and college athletes. Compare yourself against athletes in your district, your state, or the nation.

Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/seasonbe...

Flathead invite marks from this year would have been 173, 170, 167, 163, 154, 151, 145. The 163 graduates this year.

That's using last year's scoring.

STRIDE REPORT WOODBRIDGE PREDICTIONS

Boy's Individual Race (Three-Miles)
Tayvon Kitchen (Crater) - 13:41
Josiah Tostenson (Crater) - 13:42
Evan Noonan (Dana Hills) - 13:42
Owen Powell (Mercer Island) - 13:47
Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll) - 13:54
Corbin Coombs (Organ Mountain) - 13:57
Maximus Cervi-Skinner (Coeur D'Alene) - 14:04
Jack Paradise (Great Oak) - 14:08
Owen Whitney (Rock Canyon) - 14:12
Bradley Arrey (JSerra) - 14:12

Analysis: This race is incredibly top-heavy with six athletes who have a realistic shot to secure gold on Friday. My personal pick for the win is Crater senior Tayvon Kitchen, who recenlty pulled off an insane double, running 14:31 (5k) and 14:24 (5k)...on the same day. The crazy thing is that he may not even finish as his team's top runner as fellow senior Josiah Tostenson has run 8:39 for 3200 meters and went back and forth with Kitchen as Crater's top runner seemingly every weekend during the 2023 cross country season.

Boys Team Race
Herriman Mustangs
Southlake Carroll Dragons
Crater Comets
Great Oak Wolfpack
Buchanan Bears

I don’t think Kitchen and Tostenson have ever gone 1-2 in a major invitational.

Do you have the girls predictions?

Girl's Individual Race (Three-Miles)

Jane Hendengren (Timpview) - 15:32
Sadie Engelhardt (Ventura) - 15:33
Rylee Blade (Santiago Corona) - 15:37
Holly Barker (Trabuco Hills) - 15:40
Hanne Thomsen (Montgomery) - 15:41
Jordan Banta (Air Academy) - 15:45
Sophia Rodriguez (Mercer Island) - 15:56
Alexandra Fox (Flower Mound) - 16:00
Payton Meineke (Riverdale Ridge) - 16:01
Elle Lomeli (Buchanan) - 16:01

ANALYSIS: There are two athletes entered this Saturday who are head and shoulders above the rest of the other athletes in this field. That's not meant as a disrespect to any other of the athletes in this race, most of them are wonderful talents in their own right, but Jane Hedengren and Sadie Engelhardt simply reside in a different tier.

Hedengren hasn't lost a cross country race since November of 2022 and is the defending Woodbridge champion after running 15:35 (three miles) to triumph over the eventual Foot Locker national champion, Elizabeth Leachman.

At this point, nearly everyone knows the talent that Sadie Engelhardt possesses, running 4:08 for 1500 meters this past summer. The question, however, is how well can she translate her fitness to the grass? Luckily for her, the flat and fast Woodbridge course should play to her strengths.

If either of the projected top-two women falter in this race, look for an athlete such as Rylee Blade or Hanne Thomsen to capitalize. Blade was 4th at this meet last year and Thomsen has gone sub-10 for 3200 meters. Both distance stars are tremendously talented and boast great upside.

Dyestat National Team Rankings:
Boys:
Coeur D'Alene - 8
Jesuit OR - 10
Crater - 11
Rocky Mountain - 22
Issaquah - 34

Girls:
Jesuit OR - 17
Lincoln - 35
Mount Si - 39

Feels pretty fair to me. You could arguably shuffle some of those top boys teams, and I don't think Jesuit is that much better than Lincoln on the girls side, but for a national rankings using limited data, seems pretty good.

Kamiakin

athletic.net

Track & Field, Cross Country Results, Statistics

Meet results and team scores.

Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/meet/235...

I wouldn’t pay for Stride Report either, how can they rank Jordan Banta, an 11:00 2 miler over the likes of Rodriguez, Fox, or Meineke? Rodriguez has run 15:30s for 3 miles, etc. oh well race in 24hrs.