Reading Rojo’s take on Fisher’s chances in the 10K, I had an issue with this part:
“I don’t like Fisher’s odds for a medal in the 10k at all. He’s not as good as Yomif Kejelcha, Jacob Kiplimo, Selemon Barega,or Joshua Cheptegei. If they run their best, Fisher isn’t beating them. Yes, Fisher leads Kejelcha 5-3 lifetime in all races but Kejelcha has won the last three and they haven’t been particularly close (2023 Florence, 2023 Zurich, and 2023 Pre).”
I don’t think two non-championship 5K races and a non-championship 3K are necessarily indicative of how they stack up in a championship 10K. I think it’s more helpful to look at their championship head to head record. Fisher has the advantage there, 2-0. Fisher beat Kejelcha in the last Olympic 10K, and he beat him in the 2022 world championship 5K. It’s therefore conceivable that Fisher can beat him again.
Not only conceivable, he did it! Congratulations on winning an Olympic medal, Grant!!
I think Dakotah Lindwurm has a chance, albeit small, to pull a Molly Seidel and sneak in for a medal. She has been training on the course, and with as hilly and hot as everyone is saying it's supposed to be, I think the race becomes a war of attrition. If that's the case, I like Lindwurm's chances to make the podium.
So the Americans are going to put 2 on the podium? Lindwurm a GREAT story but why in God's name would you like her over Fiona who beat her by 3.5 minutes at the Trials and is also a GREAT hill runner.
If it's a war of attrition, the fittest people should be fading the least. And while it's going to be 93 in Paris today, the high for next Thursday is projected to be 77.
When Imade my odds, I did think "Oh it coudl be a wild marathon." But the more I think about it - this isn't going to be a freezing cold Boston where people have hypothermia. The hills may end up rewarding fitness.
ANd I think people will be scared. I don't think anyone will have the guts to do so antyhign on the first super long hill.
ROJO, how about a slice of humble pie? Why in God's name would I choose Lindwurm over O'Keefe? How did that question work out for you today?
So the Americans are going to put 2 on the podium? Lindwurm a GREAT story but why in God's name would you like her over Fiona who beat her by 3.5 minutes at the Trials and is also a GREAT hill runner.
If it's a war of attrition, the fittest people should be fading the least. And while it's going to be 93 in Paris today, the high for next Thursday is projected to be 77.
I really don't have a dog in this fight but you are always getting it wrong about the weather.
What the high of the day is irrelevant. Its what the temperature at post time that matters. Both marathons were 8am starts and the temperatures, as one would expect, were fine.
Dummy. The odds are 4 to 1. Odds are expressed as a ratio of favorable outcomes to unfavorable.
1 chance in 5 is not the same as 4 to 1 against?
The gift that keeps on giving.
Yes it is the same but chance is expressed always a percentage and odds is expressed as a ratio. Its expressed as a ratio for the benefit to the bettor profit/investment.
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