US men’s 1500m strategies to win at Paris

Yeah right great plan. Play rabbit for a field with many guys who can stick on your shoulders through the end. You need a 5-6 second PR advantage or just a lot of luck to go wire to wire. Not sure even Jakob could guarantee a medal by time trialing the final.

Second and third latching on efficiently to Jakob's shoulder have the highest chance of getting medals. Everybody else either has to replace Jakob as pacer, box themselves in or be too far back to mount a lethal attack in the end.

seb coe, gold in 1980 and 1984. but your point is still a good one...

Yes, the guy who has medaled at (almost) every championship he has entered obviously have great flaws when it comes to running without pacers.

Jakob is Ron Clarke. He has WR fitness but his narcissistic tendency to want a fast race and show he is the best will be his downfall. He will keep getting pipped, again, and again, and again.

Of the Americans I would guess Hocker to be most likely to take the W, but overall it's Kerr's to lose

Nuguse cannot win. While he is clearly a talented runner, like Rupp, he doesn't have any kind of kick that he can rely on for fending off those who do. When he lost to Jakob in that incredible mile race last year, he had nothing that showed any advantage at the end of a race. He showed that again against Hocker in the US Trials. He will be lucky to place 3rd. I say 5th assuming he make the finals.

Too much thinking going on. I don't care about strategy. I'm going with the prodigy.

And it doesn't have to be close

True dat, his best bet is actuallly how he ran the Budapest semi, closing a 3:34ish way in 1:47-48(800m) and 51(400m), but I doubt he would do that and that would give Kerr the edge.

You guys certainly spend a lot of time nitpicking details and doubting prodigies.

What about the 3 world records we've just seen? How is Sydney doing? Was Kipyegon a late bloomer? How about Mahuchikh?

in a fast race, like the last 2 WC and Olympic final though, I would take Nuguse over Hocker in terms of being the medal hope any day of the week.

All predictions here are based on past performances, mostly one off paced races. At the Trials, Hocker looked great through the rounds and made a decisive move in the final nobody could respond to. All things being the same with a few weeks to go, I expect the same but you never know. He's very fit and his gear shifting is sharp. Cant say the same for Nuguse. IF they all make the final, that would be awesome! It's going to be a combination NASCAR and demolition derby with a formula 1 finish.

Closing in 25 the last 200 of a 3:47 indoor mile doesn't count as any kind of a kick?

He can close races fast. He's proven that.

He's yet to prove he can effectively close races fast AND win. He won at Millrose with almost 0 competition, lost at Indoor Worlds but kicked well on both occasions.

Has yet to kick to a meaningful win.

Not that he can rely on to beat Hocker or Kerr, and probably not Jakob either considering their competition history and races this year.

To 1500m-enthusiast: What blahblahblah3 wrote is my point. Closing speed means nothing if everyone else is closing as well or better. Where was Nuguse's closing speed in the big mile race last year when he lost to Jakob? Where was it this year when he lost to Hocker? Where was that winning kick in the WC's last year? Again, he's a fine runner and very talented. He happens to be running at a time when other talents are also on the track, and he doesn't demonstrate the ability to kick in another gear that is needed to win.

I'll be routing for him. I hope he shows me to be in error. But he hasn't shown it yet.

jakob and cheruyiot are gonna make it a 328 race lmao they aint leaving it to kickers

With all due respect, those poor examples of races you picked to prove your point show a lack of understanding of what makes a kick possible.

1. Which runners in the world can have a huge kick while trying to maintain WR pace? Do you think Kerr or Hocker would have fared any better in that 3:43 mile race?

2. How fast do you think Hocker could've closed in that race if he had to lead from the beginning instead of Nuguse?

3. For whatever reason you want to attribute it to (hinted sickness, inexperience, poor tactics and positioning, bad day) he underperformed at the WCs and clearly wasn't at his best.

The secret is to grow a mustache. Like Vingegaard. Then they will be unbeatable.

Best bet is for him to rent a scooter. (Though I'd be happy if he did win...)