I think it’s safe to say that sahlaman would be favored to make that team over Kessler right now
What makes you say that? They both have extremely similar PRs except Kessler's very slightly faster for the 1500/Mile. Colin most likely has the better kick but Kessler has more experience, I'd say they are very even at the moment.
I think we need to remind ourselves that Sahlman was 6th at NCAA indoors. Kessler was 3rd in the world indoors. Sahlman's not making the team.
Completely forgot about Teare too. This team is gonna be so difficult to make. Absolutely harder than 2021.
One of these days the dam will break and spill some top American 1500m talent into the steeplechase...
I can't believe a thread wasn't started on this. But I was looking up some stats today and apparently Waskom tried to return to the steeple. Ran 8:54 a month ago. How a guy that good can only run 8:54 in the steeple is hard for me to understand.
ALmost every year at Cornell I had a 9:00 steepler at Cornell and most of them were not great flat runners. It's the equivalnet of a 9:00 2-mile basically.
Did anyone talk about this a month ago on here when he ran it?
Well said. They deserve all the credit for hard work but they really had a dream situation from 9th grade through College. This is a good example of how progression can look if set it up correct with talent of course. Nico and Colin lost no years of development
It sounds kinda obvious, but it really may be that by stacking 5-7 years of high quality training (consistent, running the right paces, getting good recovery, strengthening exercises, doing speed development year round, etc), you can get really really good.
Not to say everyone could be a 3:33 guy, but I feel like I hear stories all the time about athletes who went years without being able to get more than 3 months of consistent training without any hiccups, then they finally string together 6 months of training and run something great. Geordie Beamish comes to mind with his NCAA mile and World 1500 wins. German Fernandez comes to mind with his senior/freshman years (WJR then broke that by 1.5s!). I think he also did it as a pro and dropped a random 3:34. Parker Valby comes to mind. For what it's worth, I distinctly remember a Shelby Houlihan interview circa 2020 saying the secret to her success was years of uninterrupted training.
Cole Hocker was a Footlocker champ running 40mpw in HS, and he credited a lot of his college success with his HS coach not overworking him. I think he got the benefit of not getting injured, but if he was training healthily at a very high level at NP, I feel like he'd be way better than the other guys. Probably closer to Laros or Myers than to Sahlman. Same with Nuguse. Once those guys took training really seriously, they became some of the best in the world in like a year.
What makes you say that? They both have extremely similar PRs except Kessler's very slightly faster for the 1500/Mile. Colin most likely has the better kick but Kessler has more experience, I'd say they are very even at the moment.
I think we need to remind ourselves that Sahlman was 6th at NCAA indoors. Kessler was 3rd in the world indoors. Sahlman's not making the team.
You’re crazy to say that. Indoor was a joke and people who won indoor medals could not make the team this summer. It’s that simple. Colin ran 3:33 and can out kick anyone in that field Colin is more talented then Kessler. Saying he can’t make the team is dumb
TUCSON, Ariz. (April 27, 2024) – The NAU track & field team concluded their regular season competition at the Desert Heat Classic, highlighted by a school and conference
I think we need to remind ourselves that Sahlman was 6th at NCAA indoors. Kessler was 3rd in the world indoors. Sahlman's not making the team.
You’re crazy to say that. Indoor was a joke and people who won indoor medals could not make the team this summer. It’s that simple. Colin ran 3:33 and can out kick anyone in that field Colin is more talented then Kessler. Saying he can’t make the team is dumb
Sahlman has really come on the last 2 months, but let's not act like it's a fact that he's "More talented than Kessler."
Kessler ran 3:34.36 at age 18 and 2 months. Sahlman ran 3:33.9 at age 20 and 5.5 months.
Great run by Sahlman, excited to see this time and this really has to motivate his younger brother. I want to apologize to the poster who listed all his predicted times from 400-10k and said he could run 145.xx. I got upvoted for saying that is too fast, well I'm glad I am eating my words now.
Also as far as the top 3 at the trials, this is really shaping into a fun race. UWers haven't impressed that much lately. Their race results really appear they are training hard and ready to peak at the trials. Waskom hasn't done anything impressive for a long time and Hauser lost to Sahlman by nearly 12 seconds in a rainy 1500, then came back and both ran 3:39 at Payton Jordan.
It only takes one runner to choke under pressure, and I hate to say it but of Hocker, Kessler, and Nuguse there is a decent chance one of them folds under pressure. #4 right now really looks like Sahlman and we can't forget to mention Holt and possibly Teare. Centro and Engels on the way outskirts. There is no way this will be a slow race, will it?
You’re crazy to say that. Indoor was a joke and people who won indoor medals could not make the team this summer. It’s that simple. Colin ran 3:33 and can out kick anyone in that field Colin is more talented then Kessler. Saying he can’t make the team is dumb
Sahlman has really come on the last 2 months, but let's not act like it's a fact that he's "More talented than Kessler."
Kessler ran 3:34.36 at age 18 and 2 months. Sahlman ran 3:33.9 at age 20 and 5.5 months.
Kessler won a world indoor bronze at age 20.
Rojo - Kessler is a stud , but Colin Sahlman is and will be better. Mark my words at the Olympic trials.
Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
Mo closed a world championship race in a sun 1:48 in hot conditions 56 to 52…
Fisher is the only American that actually has a legitimate shot at a Medal
Seems like very good pacing from both ~.6s positive splits. I can see why Grijalva and Quax were so confident in predicting Colin would make the Olympic team this year. Hocker and Nuguse are 1:46 guys. Kessler has run 1:45.8. Colin has a pretty bad lack of experience, but he is kinda on a tear. If he wins NCAAs and makes the final, I think he makes the team. Crazy to think last year he didn't even make NCAAs. Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
I knew Nico had more in him after his last 800, but it's great to see him get way down into the 1:47s after being at 1:48.00. Put this and 26:52 into and it predicts a 3:48 mile from it. Suspiciously close to the 3:48 altitude conversion from earlier this year. Really makes you think, doesn't it? Also spits out a 12:48 5k and 7:59 2-mile. Hopefully his next race is a 1500 or mile. It'd be legendary if he and Colin both broke the NCAA record in the same race. And 1:47 can't be much slower than what the best 10k guys in the world can run, right?
I just checked, and since the start of 2022, no one has run a faster 800 and 10k than Nico. Pretty short list though, only like 10 names ahead of Nico in the 10k. Almgren has a 1:45 pb (he has absurd range btw), but Nico outkicked him at the 10. I know Rupp/Farah/Fisher never ran an 800 that fast. I know we're still months away from the trials, but is it crazy to talk about a medal? Grijalva hasn't done the stuff Nico is doing right now.
I agree with you in many ways, but the reality is most 10k runners never attempt multiple 800's. Those stats are a little tainted. Don't get me wrong I do think Nico and Colin are going to be some of the best in the world. If you has to ask me why these two are running so well I have some thoughts:
They had it similar to Ingebrigtsen. They had the absolutely perfect set up. In HS they had one of the best coaches in the country setting them up for development at the elite level. Most HS kids don't have this advantage with that kind of coach and environment. It just doesn't exist. It's like running at an early age with a coach thinking about long term development to be the best possible in the world. I've heard Brosnan kept his Newbury Park team small and focused on the elites. He seemed to just piss off other HS coaches by not racing his athletes often, skipping state meets, going to altitude and doing things his way and not following the HS crowd. After HS going to NAU was a perfect transition for Colin and Nico. For some reason Brosnan and Smith have a handle on runners progression that meshes to achieve fast times. Mike Smith in a recent interview gave a lot of credit to Sean Brosnan and having his athletes prepared for elite college running physically and mentally. In HS they ran fast, but it seems it was about setting them up to handle the next high level. Most HS kids screw around and don’t get serious until they are in college. That was the opposite with these two and they are ahead of the curve .
Your assessment of the Newbury situation is way off. This was not a coach thinking about long term development. It was a coach who was pushing his team harder than other coaches without anything other than their immediate performance in mind. Colin and Nico were talented enough to handle it, thrive and continue to improve beyond high school. The list is very long of the vast majority of the rest who either didn't make it through high school, were scorched before they got to college, or if they were lucky, had a year or two of success in college, then fell off the map.
The message boards are brutal towards coaches like Soles who everyone claims burnt out his runners and they never succeed beyond. If he had the luxury of uber talents like Nico and Colin, it would be a different story. Brosnan's runners have no better record post high school than coaches like Soles, Mostert, etc, etc. Lex and Leo are hanging around the same level or slightly worse than college, but other than them, it looks pretty bleak.
Also crazy to think how weak we were last Olympics. Hocker was WAY better than everyone except Centro, and Centro didn't even make the final. Now if a college kid wants to make the team, they have to beat Nuguse (3:43/3000i world silver), Hocker (3:30/1500i world silver), and Kessler (3:48/road mile world champ/1500i world bronze).
What? How weak were last Olympics? No. No. No.
Last time, if you wanted to make the Olympics for the 1500 in 2021 you had to beat Hocker - who at 20 and 2 months (4 months younger than Sahlman is right now) got 6th in Tokyo and ran 3:31.
You had to beat the reigning Olympic champion Centro who was so confident in his fitness that he took a crack at the American record in the mile before going to Tokyo and ran 3:49.
And you had to beat a star NCAA runner in Nuguse who was so fit he solo'd the Olympic standard by himself in the prelims of his conference meet. Two years later that same guy would run 3:43 in the mile.
Hocker was not WAY better than Nuguse in 2021. Here is the final 100 from NCAAs. Looks pretty competitive to me:
And let's don't act like the 4th guy at the 2021 Trials was some terrible runner. IT was Craig Engels. His 800 pb is 1:44.68 - way faster than what Sahlman's run - and his 1500 pb was 3:33.64 - also faster than what's Sahlman has run. And he ran that 3:33 in 2021.
It was a damn hard team to make in 2021 and will be so in 2024. This year we just have more depth after the top 3.
Hocker, Nuguse, Kessler, Sahlman, 3 UW guys, Engels, Centro, etc.
Was going back and found something else that supported my point. On May 9th 2021, Nuguse beat Hocker and Teare in 3:35.9. Their 3 times (3:35.9, 3:35.9, 3:36.47), were the #1, #2, and #4 in the country (Prakel was #3 with 3:36i) at that point in the year.
So far this year, we have Teare (3:32.16), Nuguse (3:33.43) Kessler (3:33.66) Sahlman (3:33.96) Green (3:34.79) Engels (3:35.46) and Ethan Strand (3:35.60 and from Alabama <3) that have all run faster. And it's only May 2nd.
Last time, if you wanted to make the Olympics for the 1500 in 2021 you had to beat Hocker - who at 20 and 2 months (4 months younger than Sahlman is right now) got 6th in Tokyo and ran 3:31.
You had to beat the reigning Olympic champion Centro who was so confident in his fitness that he took a crack at the American record in the mile before going to Tokyo and ran 3:49.
And you had to beat a star NCAA runner in Nuguse who was so fit he solo'd the Olympic standard by himself in the prelims of his conference meet. Two years later that same guy would run 3:43 in the mile.
Hocker was not WAY better than Nuguse in 2021. Here is the final 100 from NCAAs. Looks pretty competitive to me:
And let's don't act like the 4th guy at the 2021 Trials was some terrible runner. IT was Craig Engels. His 800 pb is 1:44.68 - way faster than what Sahlman's run - and his 1500 pb was 3:33.64 - also faster than what's Sahlman has run. And he ran that 3:33 in 2021.
It was a damn hard team to make in 2021 and will be so in 2024. This year we just have more depth after the top 3.
Hocker, Nuguse, Kessler, Sahlman, 3 UW guys, Engels, Centro, etc.
Was going back and found something else that supported my point. On May 9th 2021, Nuguse beat Hocker and Teare in 3:35.9. Their 3 times (3:35.9, 3:35.9, 3:36.47), were the #1, #2, and #4 in the country (Prakel was #3 with 3:36i) at that point in the year.
So far this year, we have Teare (3:32.16), Nuguse (3:33.43) Kessler (3:33.66) Sahlman (3:33.96) Green (3:34.79) Engels (3:35.46) and Ethan Strand (3:35.60 and from Alabama <3) that have all run faster. And it's only May 2nd.
Races in early May aren’t a must win situation. At the trials, and barring injury, Nuguse and Kessler are both likely to be in 3:30 shape and Hocker as well. The others are a long shot to make the team.
Was going back and found something else that supported my point. On May 9th 2021, Nuguse beat Hocker and Teare in 3:35.9. Their 3 times (3:35.9, 3:35.9, 3:36.47), were the #1, #2, and #4 in the country (Prakel was #3 with 3:36i) at that point in the year.
So far this year, we have Teare (3:32.16), Nuguse (3:33.43) Kessler (3:33.66) Sahlman (3:33.96) Green (3:34.79) Engels (3:35.46) and Ethan Strand (3:35.60 and from Alabama <3) that have all run faster. And it's only May 2nd.
In addition to what the poster above me said, it also just depends on who's trying to get the Olympic standard. Last year the WC standard was a second slower, so people weren't pushing as hard at this point in the year as they will be this year since now they only have a few more weeks to get the standard.
If no one in a race is trying to get the standard in May, then you just race to win. Now that time is running out, it's more likely to have at least 1 guy wanting to try to hit the standard in any pro race.
Was going back and found something else that supported my point. On May 9th 2021, Nuguse beat Hocker and Teare in 3:35.9. Their 3 times (3:35.9, 3:35.9, 3:36.47), were the #1, #2, and #4 in the country (Prakel was #3 with 3:36i) at that point in the year.
So far this year, we have Teare (3:32.16), Nuguse (3:33.43) Kessler (3:33.66) Sahlman (3:33.96) Green (3:34.79) Engels (3:35.46) and Ethan Strand (3:35.60 and from Alabama <3) that have all run faster. And it's only May 2nd.
Races in early May aren’t a must win situation. At the trials, and barring injury, Nuguse and Kessler are both likely to be in 3:30 shape and Hocker as well. The others are a long shot to make the team.
Here we go with your obsession with Newbury Park. You really need to get a life
