I saw someone downvoted you for even asking about four turn stagger. Most posters refuse to consider changes but believe things can remain the same and someone will race sub-1:40 800m.
There is already no drafting for first 1/4 of 800m races. There is no drafting from start to 100m. There is no drafting from 100m to 200m, everyone is racing a tangent from 100m to 200m. There is no drafting the last 1/8 of 800m. Gals & guys go into lane 4 if necessary.
A poster on this thread questioned if we are near human limits, 800m. Yes. Middle distance T&F athletes have been doing workouts since 18th Century. Runners logging over 100 miles per week, which has been done since late-1940-something or early 1950-something may help some 1500m runners but 100 miles per week-type training doesn't improve 800m performances. If this thread were on letssprint.com, posters would embrace the idea of making 800m more attractive to sprinters. Distance guys are not going to race sub-1:40 800m. We have seventy-five summers of evidence. If a man cannot sprint sub-46 400m, he isn't breaking 1:41 800m. Certainly a 46.xx 400m guy isn't breaking 1:40.
This is an interesting, but at the same time a tricky one.
To break the 1:40 barrier, is there a more "advantage" coming from the 400m event (having more top speed) and from that building up more endurance based training and therefore not to lose too much speed on the second lap?
As you mention ,top middle-distance runners, more suitable for 1500m, who's covering 100 miles per week, 800m at those fast splits (48+52 / 49+52sec per 400m) might be too fast to run relaxed enough with so much lactate last 100-150m compared to a 400/800m specialist?
I've always saw runners like Jeremy Wariner and Allyson Felix as tailored runners for 800m (running like cheetahs - long smooth strides, so relaxed). But as far as I know they hated compete at longer than 400m.
Could runners like Karsten Warholm be a 1:40 candidate if he went up to 800m in the future?
I think Warholm could be a good 800m runner, maybe international caliber, but he might be a little too heavy to be a world beater/record holder.
That’s the hard part with world caliber 800m running. You take a 49-51 second 400m highschooler and make him run 25-30 mpw and do some longer intervals for a couple years and he will probably be a state finalist, but you usually can’t take a 44-45 second 400m guy and make him a world medalist. At that point, you usually need to be maximizing your bodies genetic speed potential (and some) in order to run that fast. Start training like an endurance athlete and/or lose some weight, and now you’ll be a 46 guy which still puts you in a great place to run a fast 800m but you are no longer a world record contender.
And which time barrier do you see the most impressive one:
1. 1:39.99 @800m
2. 3:24.99 @1500m
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
I agree 1000000%. Not to mention the fact that the 800 is pretty much the only distance event that super spikes have had no benefit on. On the men's side especially it's arguably gotten slower since the dragonfly, etc came out.
Breaking 1:40 would require someone to go out in 48 low and then hang on. To be able to do that you're going to need to find a 44 high guy who also has a big enough aerobic motor AND a desire to run a way more painful event.
These are the final 200m splits from the 5 fastest 800m runs in history
Rudisha London 26.61
Rudisha Rieti 26.42
Rudisha Berlin 26.55
Kipketer Koln 26.5
Kipketer Zurich 26.9 (he did go through in 48.3 so understandable and will help us later)
So I think that we have a pretty good idea of how fast this final 200m can plausibly run. Let's just say for the sake of this that the final 200m would be run in 26.3 seconds. Any faster would seem unusual - especially given that the intermediate times at 4 and 600 would have to be considerably faster that what we have seen already and any slower would mean there were some ungodly splits through 4 and 6 that would even supersede what we saw in Zurich 97 from Kipketer.
That gives us 1.13.6 at 600m. To put this in context, there are only 5 men in history that have ever run this in a race, let alone an intermediate split where they still would have 25% of the race to go. It's only 8/10ths off the WR of Gray. Now I have no doubts that London 2012 Rudisha would have been under this mark (1.12.81) - probably somewhere in the 1.12.2/3 range and in London he hit's 600m exactly 2 seconds slower (1.14.3) and that is a pretty standard conversion between what a top 800m can run for a 600m all-out and what they can manage for 600m en-route in an 800 without utterly imploding in the final 150m which means our sub 100 guy also needs to be a 1.11 mid 600m runner.
1.13.6 at 600m with a 3rd 200m approximately a second faster than the capability of the final 200m (also a very normal pattern we have historically seen) means around 48.2/3 at the bell. Now let's think back to Kipketer in 97 who split exactly that. His next two 200m split's coming off this insane pace were 26.0 and 26.9. Now I'm not saying Kipketer was the final boss of humankind 800m running, but he was pretty damn good and I still personally believe that his potential, especially on this night in Zurich, was a lot better than what he ran (like if he went through in 49.0 he could have run 1.40.7X) - I just find it hard to envision someone this season going through at that pace and then running a low 25 second split followed up with a low 26 second split.
Not only so I find that hard to envision this season, I kind of find it hard to envision in my lifetime to be honest. I feel like the candidate to do this has to be a 44.5 400m talent (relay is fine - similar to David) and a low 3.30 1500m runner. Or imagine Emmanuel Korir who ran 44.2 at altitude also having the endurance to run a 3.33 1500m. I just don't know if/how you develop that threshold and endurance without compromising your anaerobic power that you need to run that fast.
In 1981 Coe ran 1.41.73. The record today nearly 43 years on, sits at 1.40.91 which is 0.82 faster. Given how few men we have seen even challenge this time from over 40 years ago (there are still only 4 others to ever break 1.42 and "one" (^^) is a suspended doper) I think we can safely assume we are pretty close to a limit for human physiology as we know them - like we are surely close. Even if we look at 2012 when the record was set and benchmark it v Coe in 81, that was 31 years to drop 0.82 - I don't see how we aren't at least in the same ballpark (and honestly even more) to go another 0.92 seconds to get to under 100 seconds.
Simply put, I doubt even if there is a candidate to ever run under 1.40.0 for 800m that they are even born yet.
Oh, okay. If you want to know who will be the first, it will be Hazmat Deng, the son of Sudanese refugees representing Germany, in 2048. His combination of 44-low 400 speed and 3:28 endurance will enable him to dominate the 800.
Well, Korir and Amos are the only two Africans to break 1:42.5 since the ABP kicked into gear. Amos was busted and Korir's career has fallen off a cliff since his teammate Saruni was busted. But sure, Sudanese must have special genes to explain Athing Mu and a couple of Australians who barely run as fast as Peter Snell over half-a-century ago (who wasn't even the best 800m talent in his school).
Oh, okay. If you want to know who will be the first, it will be Hazmat Deng, the son of Sudanese refugees representing Germany, in 2048. His combination of 44-low 400 speed and 3:28 endurance will enable him to dominate the 800.
Well, Korir and Amos are the only two Africans to break 1:42.5 since the ABP kicked into gear. Amos was busted and Korir's career has fallen off a cliff since his teammate Saruni was busted. But sure, Sudanese must have special genes to explain Athing Mu and a couple of Australians who barely run as fast as Peter Snell over half-a-century ago (who wasn't even the best 800m talent in his school).
As usual you lie. Can the mods please vet this person's posts for spreading lies?
The ABP "kicked into gear" with its first bust in 2012. Link:
Portuguese long distance runner Helder Ornelas has been banned for four years by his country's federation after becoming the first athlete to be found guilty of doping using the Athlete Biological Passport.
The only way to get 44s guys to train for 800m is if 400m WR and level in general in 400m would get better.
Once 400m WR becomes 42.50 and it takes 43.50 to make the WC final, some of the 44s runners might considering training for the 800m and facing the pain.
Also T&F in general needs to start making significantly more money to attract more talent and make the pain worth it.
The same goes for the 1500m. 800m times need to improve in order to push some slower 800m guys into 1500m.
The best experiment so far is Athing Mu. They took a world class 200m/400m and turned into 800m runner. The result: she hates racing. I wonder if higher monetarily rewards would make it better for her.
Oh, okay. If you want to know who will be the first, it will be Hazmat Deng, the son of Sudanese refugees representing Germany, in 2048. His combination of 44-low 400 speed and 3:28 endurance will enable him to dominate the 800.
Well, Korir and Amos are the only two Africans to break 1:42.5 since the ABP kicked into gear. Amos was busted and Korir's career has fallen off a cliff since his teammate Saruni was busted. But sure, Sudanese must have special genes to explain Athing Mu and a couple of Australians who barely run as fast as Peter Snell over half-a-century ago (who wasn't even the best 800m talent in his school).
First and foremost, I was joking. It was a sendup of the OP’s question for me to go into such specifics. I named the guy “Hazmat” for crying out loud. It doesn’t mean I think they have “special genes,” although they surely do have a better population for 800 running than many parts of the globe. But I know you’ll look for any excuse to remind us you hate Africans.
Secondly… two of the 3 800 medallists for both men and women last year were of African descent, so they seem to be doing alright. Mu of course is of Sudanese heritage and ran 1:54.97, and Marco Arop, who was born in Sudan, won gold and ran 1:42.85.
People said a year ago that Ingebrigtsen had hit his ceiling. However, he lowered his PB with almost 1,5 sec…
Jingy can do it! Will run 3.26.3 this year! You heard it here first!
I think that he can definitely run under 3.27, though I do believe the WR is out of his reach unless he really found a new plateau over 800m (in the 1.43 high/1.44 flat ballpark). To run under 3.26.00 he needs to be 1.49.5/2.45.2/3 en-route and I just don't see it.
With respect to 1.39.99 or 3.24.99 being more impressive? Statistically it's the 800m as it represents a 0.9% improvement whereas 3.24.99 represents a 0.5% improvement. I think even quantifiably it seems the 1500m would be more likely given the progression in the event in the last 5 years - especially with the respect to the depth just below the current peak talent (Jakob) in the event and also how new training theory, product and other aids like wavelight have cascading benefits as you move up in distance.
... "Once 400m WR becomes 42.50 and it takes 43.50 to make the WC final, some of the 44s runners might considering training for the 800m and facing the pain." ...
That isn't happening in our lifetimes and likely never.
... "Once 400m WR becomes 42.50 and it takes 43.50 to make the WC final, some of the 44s runners might considering training for the 800m and facing the pain." ...
