3 Ethiopians casually run 3:55.28 - 3:56.47 - The US should forfeit now! 🤣

I look at the U18 lists several times per year. Nothing is surprising or cynical if you check those lists. Ethiopia is producing them in waves. This link is the world U18 female best performers of 2023 at 1500 meters. Six of the top 7 are Ethiopian. One is Kenyan. You have to drop down to 8th for the American Sadie Engelhardt. Several of the Ethiopians are younger than she is.

We've heard of Birke Haylom but there are many others coming up behind her. This repeats every year:

worldathletics.org

1500 Metres - women - u18 - all - 2023

Open link

People with longer legs can complete a race in fewer steps than shorter runners. It’s an advantage not a disadvantage. See Bolt, Usain.

I am not saying they are "genetically gifted" in some sort of magical sense. I am saying that for men, the "normal body type" is like 5'5 and 120 lbs full grown. That is makes it a lot easier to find 1500m runners.

How many Americans are naturally that light? It matters. And you can't "starve yourself" down to their size (nor is that healthy).

My kids' friends are all athletes and all in good shape, but lacrosse, football, and basketball guys would not magically just become this body-type if they starved themselves...

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To do that they have honestly believe that they can naturally run faster than a doped up Houlihan. Or that Haylom could naturally beat a doped opponent at the U20s. Again doping is not hard to spot, just hard to prove. Katir is a timely example. He had evert red flag imaginable and the diehards came up with nonsense as usual. It is safe to assume that every top international distance runner is doping.

Wonder why? Culture of running again?

The fact of the matter is none of these athletes are at all under the radar. Ethiopians are closely managed so I can’t even recall a single one dinged for whereabouts. Welteji, Meshesha, Freweyni Hailu, and Tsegay have all been prominent since 2018-9. No offense but there’s a reason why the Ethiopian women are more dominant at 1500 and the men are not. You only need about 1:58-9 speed on the womens side, combined with immense strength and you run 3:56 or faster. Ethiopia has a lot of candidates to do that. On the men’s side you need actual wheels ~1:46 speed (1:47 low max) to hit 3:29 and suddenly the candidate pool is a lot smaller to be an elite guy. It’s deeper on the world scale where athletes get moved out of the 800 more readily for not being quick enough.

The training culture in East Africa is much higher than in the US. The number of talented athletes in Kenya/Ethiopia that are willing to work extremely hard is far greater than in the US. The high work ethic that is common with so many of these athletes is only in very few American's. Make no mistake about it East African runners out work us.

Lol good luck!

I don't think Tsehay ever raced a 1500m, but her 65:08 half and 2:16.56 marathon times were definitely earning her significant money before her November 2023 suspension for her athlete's biological passport (ABP) irregularities. I found it interesting that the reporting at that time said Tsehay was suspended for use of an "unidentified prohibited substance." Does anyone know whether it was determined what substance she was using?

I am sure that she was not the only one using that substance. It also logically makes sense that athletes would want/need to start doping before entering the international testing pool, so that their "normal" baseline ABP values would allow for continued use of banned substances.

I hope that some of these fast 1500m Ethiopian runners are not using prohibited substances, but I acknowledge it would be very hard to resist if everyone else is doping, or at least the women, like Tsehay, winning the big races.

Officials are going to allow the E. Africans and certain other third worlders to run wild with PEDs. Bet on it.

Don't look at the country, it's irrelevant. Look at the times. If they are of fairytale standard, and seem to good to be true, superhuman in fact, they probably are.

Why would you think that the U18 athletes in Ethiopia are not using performance enhancing drugs?

I am sure that 18-year-old Floridian Issam Asinga, ala U20 100m WR of 9.89, who tested positive for GW1516 last summer is not the only teenager in the world doping.

Both nations are in the lower half, while Scandinavians are in the top 5%. Different values, different economies. Corruption is relevant because it provides the cloak as well as means for institutional doping.

As an example, Russia is at the bottom 5% on corruption and is sanctioned for its rampant doping.

You’d think a country with the resources of the US would go out of its way to give its own runners a fighting chance by being militant in funding waves of research and blitzing the testing of athletes, globally.

but what goes around comes around, and their own dirty laundry would end up in public as well undermining public support of their mission. eg. Marion Jones.

so what does everyone do? the bare minimum to fight the worst offenders, and try to be the best in the “marginal cheating and blind eye” category. The problem? some countries are better at marginal cheating than you, so the Olympic year becomes a test of who can get away with the most, come off the sauce, and retain the advantage in competition.

see: Italian Athletics at Tokyo Olympics

Remember that Ethiopia did not prioritize the 1500m in the past. The events to be in were 5000m, 10000m, and marathon. Their 14:11-14:20 runners were closing in times that told you that they could run great 1500s. Now they are getting some of their quality runners in the 1500m and it shows. But as for what exactly is going on there with runners like Tsegay and Gidey, you'd have to ask their European doctors.

Yes, and outdope us too.

Your standards of what 800 speed 1500m runners need are actually very similar. A 1:46-47 male is around 5-6 seconds off the world record (1:40.91), while 1:58-59 women are 5-6 seconds off the world record (1:53.28). The difference from common elite times is also similar. Sub-1:44 has been good enough among the men in recent years to contend (about 3 seconds off your speculative 1500m runner), while 1:55-56 will usually get you a women's medal, 2-4 seconds faster than your 1:58-59 runners. But when you look at it more carefully, you'll see that the Ethiopians have had 1:56-57 quality women running the 5000m and sometimes the 1500. You know because they were closing their 5000m races in 1:56-58. And really you can make a stronger case for the men needing really good speed, because while Jakob has run only in the 1:46s, Jake has run 1:43.65 and a host of 1:44s, Kerr ran 1:45.35, and many top guys previously have been 1:42-43 guys as well. Jakob is quite unusual. Lagat only ever ran 1:46, though he also closed a 1500m in 1:46. But most top guys have been 1:42-44. So, you do typically need really good speed in the 1500m at the top level.

My thoughts on Ethiopia and the 1500?

1) With proper coaching and $$, they should DESTROY the us in the 1500.

2) They may not as they race all the time. This is the result of two things. One, they don't have large endorsement contracts and two, there is no Ethiopian trials soo they are constantly trying to beat another's time. So they don't peak well for a single race like a Kerr or Wightman.

3) I don't get why the Ethiopian men aren't similarly good. Look at Nuguse. His parents are from there. Where are the Ethiopian born male milers?

Tefera aside, I'd say the top "milers"--Girma, Kejelcha, Barega--prioritize other events.

Too early to start a Kipyegon or Welteji -- Who ya got? Paris Olympics Women's 1500m Final thread?