Grant Fisher has arguably the best kick in this entire group when you consider his last 1600m en route to his indoor 5k in 2022 was a 3:57 close. He can absolutely shut it down with a 53 last lap. I agree with you that this will likely be a tactical race that could be won in 13:15- 13:30 so this will be a kicker’s race, and if the race were held today I’m taking Fisher.
If there are three or more guys with Fisher at 4800 meters, he won't make the team.
Please stop moving the goal posts. Even with your new condition, he will make the team. How about if three or more guys are ahead of Fisher with 5 meters to go, he won't make the team? OK, you win.
"Fisher is the best 5000m runner in U.S. history."
No way. Fisher has never won a medal in a global 5000 (or at any other distance).
Bernard Lagat won three World Championships medals in the 5000, including a gold medal in 2007. He was a U.S. citizen in all of these races. He also placed 4th in the 5000 at the Olympics in 2012 and was 5th in 2016. Lagat's PR of 12:53 in the pre-super shoe era is arguably equal to or superior to Fisher's 12:46.
Paul Chelimo has two Olympic medals and one World Championships medal. I think his record is far superior to Fisher's.
Bob Schul was undefeated in the 5000 in 1964, a winning streak that included the Tokyo Olympics. In the Olympic final, he reportedly ran the last 300 meters in 37.8 seconds in heavy rain in primitive spikes on a muddy track. Source:
Robert Keyser "Bob" Schul (born September 28, 1937) is a former American long-distance runner. As of 2016, he is the only American to have won an Olympic gold medal in the 5000 m, at the 1964 Summer Olympics in Tokyo. Early c...
It isn't 2022 anymore. Yared Nuguse was an also-ran in the USATF 1500 in 2022 (11th place). Things change!
The main thing is: The field is much more competitive now. Nur and Teare pose a much greater threat to Fisher now than they did two years ago.
Yes, things change, and that includes Fisher. He’s now living and running at altitude, doing double workouts, and is able to do training that is 100% customized to his needs. Guy ran 12:54 and 7:25 last year coming off of injury! I’m trying to imagine a fully healthy and better than ever Fisher finishing fifth at the US championships. Other than a scenario in which he stumbles, I don’t see it.
It isn't 2022 anymore. Yared Nuguse was an also-ran in the USATF 1500 in 2022 (11th place). Things change!
The main thing is: The field is much more competitive now. Nur and Teare pose a much greater threat to Fisher now than they did two years ago.
Yes, things change, and that includes Fisher. He’s now living and running at altitude, doing double workouts, and is able to do training that is 100% customized to his needs. Guy ran 12:54 and 7:25 last year coming off of injury! I’m trying to imagine a fully healthy and better than ever Fisher finishing fifth at the US championships. Other than a scenario in which he stumbles, I don’t see it.
He hasn't run a single race under his new coach. It is not certain that he will do better.
It's hard to see Kincaid and Fisher out, but they might only be 10K guys. Who else is capable of going 12:55 or lower indoors.
Nur, Chelimo, Beadlescomb, and Teare would challenge for the 3rd spot in my estimation, but I would root against Chelimo because he's already accomplished everything and there are other great guys I love who's careers need to be justified by this Olympic selection.
Fisher holds the ARs in the 3000m, 5000m and 10000m. Distance running was not as competitive during the eras of the runners you listed. Maybe I should have added “Except for Lagat”.
There’s no evidence to support the belief that any new technology has any affect on track times. The new 2000m and 2-mile WRs, were marginal improvements(compared to the 3000 conversion), set by possibly the greatest 1500/5000m of all time, and Cheptegei took only a few seconds of the 5/10K records.
Blanks in ninth is crazy. The streak isn’t ending anytime soon
Blanks is better than Teare
In a slow, tactical race, I'd pick Teare. He is 3:50.17 miler who won the 1500m at nationals less than two years ago. He has run a 1:47 800 meters. Blanks has not yet demonstrated that level of top-end speed. According to Wikipedia, his mile PR is 3:56.63.
In a slow, tactical race, I'd pick Teare. He is 3:50.17 miler who won the 1500m at nationals less than two years ago. He has run a 1:47 800 meters. Blanks has not yet demonstrated that level of top-end speed. According to Wikipedia, his mile PR is 3:56.63.
Picking Teare over Kincaid, Fisher, and Klecker because he won USATF XC nationals and because he's a good miler is silly. Teare has never shown he's on par with those guys in a 5000, tactical race or otherwise. If you can find a betting market that allows us to bet on this, I would love to take the other side of this prediction.
Id go with Fisher, Blanks and Nuguse off of an honest pace if Nuguse runs and decides he's not going to give up his spot.
If Nuguse doesnt run the 5k, 3rd spot up for grabs.
I hope it's elbows and a$$holes from the gun and Fisher & Young types make it happen. If, God forbid, its a sit and kick race that none of us want to see, Nuguse, Kincaid and possibly Teare if he doesnt run the 1500. Again, its a shootout that is up for grabs, especially if Nuguse doesnt run.
Once this spring plays out a little, we'll have a better picture of how it's going to line up. Im praying every last one of them get to the starting line in the best shape of their lives and run an all out race where we truly see who's got it and ready to challenge in the Paris final, not just make the team.
Expect surprises and dissapointments both. It happens every time. Ive been in the reception area after the race several times and seeing the top 5 balling their eyes out with their families and coaches for both reasons is very emotional and fitting but most dont get to see that. No matter what, they leave it all out on the track that day in America. Do or Do Not, There is No Try!
Americans needing to work on closing in 55 off of 13:00mins sounds like a highschool coach telling a 10:00 two miler to work on closing in 2:05 because thats whats needed in the invitational section at Arcadia. Bro, we have like two three guys that can break 13, thats it. But you know what, I’m sure they have never thought of closing speed . You should write them. And their coaches. Tell them that they need to work on closing in 55 off of 13 min pace. You're hired.
Abdihamid Nur held off perennial contender Paul Chelimo for the national crown in the men's 5000m, making his second straight World Championship team#NBCSpor...
If he sets a fast pace, he has close to a 100% chance of making the team. Under some or your scenarios, it’s going to be a roll of the dice. Again, there will be other guys in the race who’s only chance to make the team, is for there to be a fast pace.
If Fisher is the one trying to make it a fast pace, his chances go down, not up. Did he set the fast pace for any of his PBs? I expect Fisher to make the Olympic team, but championship racing is very different from time trials.
If he sets a fast pace, he has close to a 100% chance of making the team. Under some or your scenarios, it’s going to be a roll of the dice. Again, there will be other guys in the race who’s only chance to make the team, is for there to be a fast pace.
If Fisher is the one trying to make it a fast pace, his chances go down, not up. Did he set the fast pace for any of his PBs? I expect Fisher to make the Olympic team, but championship racing is very different from time trials.
He did exactly what I’m talking about in the 2022 USATF 5000m. Why do you think he can’t do it again?
In a slow, tactical race, I'd pick Teare. He is 3:50.17 miler who won the 1500m at nationals less than two years ago. He has run a 1:47 800 meters. Blanks has not yet demonstrated that level of top-end speed. According to Wikipedia, his mile PR is 3:56.63.
Picking Teare over Kincaid, Fisher, and Klecker because he won USATF XC nationals and because he's a good miler is silly. Teare has never shown he's on par with those guys in a 5000, tactical race or otherwise.
Not silly at all. His cross country race shows he has the strength to hang with the pack in a 13:20ish 5000. His mile pedigree shows he will have the speed to kick with anyone in the field.
Last year at the USATF championships, Teare finished fifth. He was three seconds ahead of Kincaid and less than one tenth of a second behind Klecker. So, yes, he showed he's on par with those two guys.
He's clearly fitter/stronger now than he was last year. No reason he can't move up a couple of spots and make the team this year.
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