Rain is forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. It will be a bit muddy, especially for the girl's race. I think that the California teams are very talented but will struggle on wet grass and mud. Glendoveer is a far cry from the dirt/asphalt roads and golf green trimmed grass that they are used to.
I agree with you on the CA runners. I was thinking some may run 40-60 seconds slower. Just looking at results from other rainy years at NXN. Brutal!
2019 was so awful that it disadvantaged everyone! Monsoon rains and upper 30s. I remember that Taylor Ewert almost took down Tuohy that year.
In bad weather years, the very top talent will find a way to confirm their pedigree. It becomes a question of how tough your 4,5, and 6 runners are. Some kids will double down and try to move up from 120th place in the last mile, most get discouraged being that far back and just jog it in.
Boys (predicted very close) 1 American Fork UT 73 Southwest 2 Christian Brothers Acad NJ 74 Northeast 3 Southlake Carroll TX 81 South 4 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 116 Southeast 5 Herriman UT 137 Southwest 6 Crater OR 138 Northwest 7 San Clemente (SS) CA 140 California 8 Dana Hills (SS) CA 142 California 9 Westfield NJ 155 Northeast 10 Coeur d'Alene ID 181 Northwest 11 Riverton UT 185 Southwest 12 Great Oak (SS) CA 206 California 13 Downers Grove North IL 225 Midwest 14 Stevens Point WI 231 Heartland 15 Wayzata MN 233 Heartland 16 Franklin OR 233 Northwest 17 Bentonville AR 236 South 18 Niwot CO 240 Southwest 19 Monroe-Woodbury NY 245 New York 20 Plainfield North IL 275 Midwest 21 Auburn NY 320 New York 22 Montgomery Bell Acad TN 414 Southeast
Girls (also predicted pretty close) 1 Niwot CO 135 Southwest 2 Air Academy CO 140 Southwest 3 JSerra Catholic (SS) CA 191 California 4 Flower Mound TX 191 South 5 Tatnall DE 191 Southeast 6 Lone Peak UT 221 Southwest 7 Saratoga Springs NY 240 New York 8 Buchanan (CS) CA 240 California 9 Union Catholic Reg NJ 240 Northeast 10 Santiago Corona (SS) CA 240 California 11 Mountain Vista CO 250 Southwest 12 North Allegheny PA 293 Northeast 13 Prospect IL 315 Midwest 14 Jesuit Portland OR 340 Northwest 15 Lincoln HS OR 350 Northwest 16 Assumption KY 355 Southeast 17 Downers Grove North IL 356 Midwest 18 Bethlehem NY 382 New York 19 York IL 385 Midwest 20 Southlake Carroll TX 400 South 21 Wayzata MN 450 Heartland 22 Olathe West KS 499 Heartland
Pretty wild that no one has Prospect finishing in the top 10, yet alone the top 5. Very real chance they have three runners in the top 30-40 this Saturday. Not saying they'll win, but seeing prediction putting them in the 15-20 range is crazy.
Southlake Carroll is once again predicted to be near the top when historically they finish well back. 15 appearances only 2 top ten finishes and those were back to back in 2011-2012 which tells you they had a good class those two years, the rest of their finishes....
Rain is forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. It will be a bit muddy, especially for the girl's race.
I think that the California teams are very talented but will struggle on wet grass and mud. Glendoveer is a far cry from the dirt/asphalt roads and golf green trimmed grass that they are used to.
I agree with you on the CA runners. I was thinking some may run 40-60 seconds slower. Just looking at results from other rainy years at NXN. Brutal!
Advantage - Rachel Forsyth
Disadvantage - Sadie Engelhardt and Elizabeth Leachman
Weather won’t impact any team predictions. People always say it will but it won’t…. just like usual.
Bad weather makes weird things happen. It increases chaos. It's much more challenging to run a good race in soggy wet mud. The margin of error is narrow.
People are more likely to fall or lose a shoe. Runners can get bogged down in a pack they would normally be able to easily break out of. Just look at the 2019 race footage. Runners falling all over the course.
Some really great runners are about to miss out on the that top 10 spot, look how many missed it last year. It's basically like NCAA's where if you get top 30-40 be happy. I have Grevious or Simmons the strong candidates to win this. Those Heartland kids are scary, so are Noonan, Perez, and Valyo.
1 American Fork UT 73 2 Christian Brothers Academy NJ 74 3 Southlake Carroll TX 81 4 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 116 5 Herriman UT 137 6 Crater OR 138 7 San Clemente (SS) CA 140 8 Dana Hills (SS) CA 142 9 Westfield NJ 155 10 Coeur d'Alene ID 181 11 Riverton UT 185 12 Great Oak (SS) CA 206 13 Downers Grove North IL 225 14 Stevens Point WI 231 15 Wayzata MN 233 16 Franklin OR 233 17 Bentonville AR 236 18 Niwot CO 240 19 Monroe-Woodbury NY 245 20 Plainfield North IL 275 21 Auburn NY 320 22 Montgomery Bell Academy TN 414
Those top teams were coached by legends Shawn Brosnan and Doug Soules. They aren't there anymore. Outside of these 2 and the old Arcadia Coach, who else has shown they can coach California to a win in the slop?