I hope I can remember to check back! If you end up being right on 23secs and 10pts... no offense, but I will believe that you have some sort of psychic future-telling ability rather than just being that good. That would be both an amazing prognostication and outcome!
The fact that it would require the proverbial miracle means that it ain't gonna happen. They'll either race too conservatively or too aggressively with said miracle in mind.
The runners and their coach understand that it’s not possible to outrun talent and fitness. No strategies will change as a result of Chmiel not running.
Says who? the best runner NAU has is Elise Sterns and she won't defeat Tuohy, if Tyynismaa, and Bush can emulate their last year performance then they are better than NAU. Stephens has run better than Bush so if she is at par with her you can have 4 under 20, the incognita would be Hartmann if she can do her best race she can be in the 30's. This is not Nuttycomb, Nau won't do 50 points or even 90, the competition is much harder, here you have all the top teams. NC State have their chances, Chmiel would have really helped, but i don't count them out even without her. Tuohy Valby is also something to watch and the Alabama girls of course.
The runners and their coach understand that it’s not possible to outrun talent and fitness. No strategies will change as a result of Chmiel not running.
Says who? the best runner NAU has is Elise Sterns and she won't defeat Tuohy, if Tyynismaa, and Bush can emulate their last year performance then they are better than NAU. Stephens has run better than Bush so if she is at par with her you can have 4 under 20, the incognita would be Hartmann if she can do her best race she can be in the 30's. This is not Nuttycomb, Nau won't do 50 points or even 90, the competition is much harder, here you have all the top teams. NC State have their chances, Chmiel would have really helped, but i don't count them out even without her. Tuohy Valby is also something to watch and the Alabama girls of course.
Blank231…. We’ve agreed on a lot of things over these past few years.
I appreciate what you did there.
I draw the line in the sand though, with a 1973 manual stopwatch.
23 (twenty-three) seconds.
tick-tick-tick-tick-tick-tick-tick 23 times before the next finisher.
Seriously... there is no way she wins by 23 seconds. That is as outlandish as posters saying Valby wins by 23 seconds. What is that based on?
1) She LOVES cross country. 2) She LOVES the TEAM aspect of cross country. 3) She DISLIKES losing. 4) She never repeats the same mistake. 5) She learns from EVERYTHING. 6) She WINS. 7) She WANTS to push herself to the utmost limits (even to the irritation of her coaches). Tuohy will WIN and will MOTIVATE her teammates to do EVERYTHING they possible can to do they best THEY can as well to win the team title.
Seriously... there is no way she wins by 23 seconds. That is as outlandish as posters saying Valby wins by 23 seconds. What is that based on?
I just cannot picture the race she wins by that much barring Valby et al collapsing and I have not seen Valby do that. Outkicked? Certainly but that translates to a narrower win.
Seriously... there is no way she wins by 23 seconds. That is as outlandish as posters saying Valby wins by 23 seconds. What is that based on?
I just cannot picture the race she wins by that much barring Valby et al collapsing and I have not seen Valby do that. Outkicked? Certainly but that translates to a narrower win.
She’s done it before. In fact, MANY times… SHOCKING!
Katelyn Tuohy is only getting faster and faster.============================================Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976,...
Seriously... there is no way she wins by 23 seconds. That is as outlandish as posters saying Valby wins by 23 seconds. What is that based on?
1) She LOVES cross country. 2) She LOVES the TEAM aspect of cross country. 3) She DISLIKES losing. 4) She never repeats the same mistake. 5) She learns from EVERYTHING. 6) She WINS. 7) She WANTS to push herself to the utmost limits (even to the irritation of her coaches). Tuohy will WIN and will MOTIVATE her teammates to do EVERYTHING they possible can to do they best THEY can as well to win the team title.
1) She LOVES cross country. 2) She LOVES the TEAM aspect of cross country. 3) She DISLIKES losing. 4) She never repeats the same mistake. 5) She learns from EVERYTHING. 6) She WINS. 7) She WANTS to push herself to the utmost limits (even to the irritation of her coaches). Tuohy will WIN and will MOTIVATE her teammates to do EVERYTHING they possible can to do they best THEY can as well to win the team title.
The runners and their coach understand that it’s not possible to outrun talent and fitness. No strategies will change as a result of Chmiel not running.
Says who? the best runner NAU has is Elise Sterns and she won't defeat Tuohy, if Tyynismaa, and Bush can emulate their last year performance then they are better than NAU. Stephens has run better than Bush so if she is at par with her you can have 4 under 20, the incognita would be Hartmann if she can do her best race she can be in the 30's. This is not Nuttycomb, Nau won't do 50 points or even 90, the competition is much harder, here you have all the top teams. NC State have their chances, Chmiel would have really helped, but i don't count them out even without her. Tuohy Valby is also something to watch and the Alabama girls of course.
I have been thinking this as well. Their hopes are not lost. NAU is going to be hard to beat, but not impossible. NC State has fast runners that can step up and have big performances tomorrow. NAU definitely has the big advantage, but I am going to be cheering hard for the Wolfpack.
The runners and their coach understand that it’s not possible to outrun talent and fitness. No strategies will change as a result of Chmiel not running.
Says who? the best runner NAU has is Elise Sterns and she won't defeat Tuohy, if Tyynismaa, and Bush can emulate their last year performance then they are better than NAU. Stephens has run better than Bush so if she is at par with her you can have 4 under 20, the incognita would be Hartmann if she can do her best race she can be in the 30's. This is not Nuttycomb, Nau won't do 50 points or even 90, the competition is much harder, here you have all the top teams. NC State have their chances, Chmiel would have really helped, but i don't count them out even without her. Tuohy Valby is also something to watch and the Alabama girls of course.
If you expect Stephens to have improved, then you also have to accept NAU has 4 runners equal in fitness (through 4 of them placing ahead of her at Nuttycomb) to her. Using the same extrapolation you're using, that means NAU also has 4 under 20, and they have a way better 5 than NC State will be able to put out.
It's basically in miracle territory, not just runners running good on the day.
Says who? the best runner NAU has is Elise Sterns and she won't defeat Tuohy, if Tyynismaa, and Bush can emulate their last year performance then they are better than NAU. Stephens has run better than Bush so if she is at par with her you can have 4 under 20, the incognita would be Hartmann if she can do her best race she can be in the 30's. This is not Nuttycomb, Nau won't do 50 points or even 90, the competition is much harder, here you have all the top teams. NC State have their chances, Chmiel would have really helped, but i don't count them out even without her. Tuohy Valby is also something to watch and the Alabama girls of course.
If you expect Stephens to have improved, then you also have to accept NAU has 4 runners equal in fitness (through 4 of them placing ahead of her at Nuttycomb) to her. Using the same extrapolation you're using, that means NAU also has 4 under 20, and they have a way better 5 than NC State will be able to put out.
It's basically in miracle territory, not just runners running good on the day.
Says who? the best runner NAU has is Elise Sterns and she won't defeat Tuohy, if Tyynismaa, and Bush can emulate their last year performance then they are better than NAU. Stephens has run better than Bush so if she is at par with her you can have 4 under 20, the incognita would be Hartmann if she can do her best race she can be in the 30's. This is not Nuttycomb, Nau won't do 50 points or even 90, the competition is much harder, here you have all the top teams. NC State have their chances, Chmiel would have really helped, but i don't count them out even without her. Tuohy Valby is also something to watch and the Alabama girls of course.
If you expect Stephens to have improved, then you also have to accept NAU has 4 runners equal in fitness (through 4 of them placing ahead of her at Nuttycomb) to her. Using the same extrapolation you're using, that means NAU also has 4 under 20, and they have a way better 5 than NC State will be able to put out.
It's basically in miracle territory, not just runners running good on the day.
I mostly agree with you and i'd put NAU at >90% chance to win. But to play devils advocate for fun...
Is Keira Moore going to run? She hasn't run since that race at Nuttycombe race. If she doesn't run or isn't 100%, are the other options to be their 5th really that much better than Grace Hartman? Ruby Smee only beat her by 2 spots at Nuttycombe and Maisie Grice and Maggi Congdon were over 10+ seconds back of Hartman.
And Aliandrea Upshaw is a bit of a question mark for me still as to how she'll perform. She was lights out a Nuttycombe only 7 seconds back of Larkin, but then she was 25 seconds back of Larkin at regionals. She was 146th at Nationals last year.
(Yes Tyynismaa is obviously a bigger question mark but this is just devil's advocate here).