Any dark horse candidates? Would be interesting if Valby, the Alabama Duo, and Touhy go out too hard and implode. Who would be the most likely to take advantage of that?
Hmm. I don't really see it. That is 4 runners imploding ....
Maybe someone like Maatoug, Machu, Bunnage who are on an improvement trajectory have the race of their life
+She appears to heading in the right direction, has a track record of performing well at NCAAs (minus last year's NCAA track), and appears healthy. Her team will be contending which typically helps an individual contender. She's from the historically stronger program with the more proven coach/system.
-She's at a point in her career when her year-over-year improvement appears to be slowing significantly, and this plays mind games with athletes. NCAA track may still be in her head. The faster/easier course may not suit her to the extent it does her rivals.
Case for/against Valby
+She's been dominant all year. She is the most talented American-born runner in the field--one of the biggest engines ever amongst US women. She has a team behind her this year. The course/weather will suit her better than last year. She's beaten Tuohy this year. She's healthier than in the past.
-She's been dominant all year. Being too fit, too soon is the NCAA XC toxic trait. Her most recent race was (maybe) less dominant than the rest of her races (maybe). How healthy is she? That gait is a little wonky, but who knows. Her coach doesn't have a history of having athletes consistently ready on the big day.
I think there's a 65% chance Tuohy or Valby wins the race and a 35% chance one of 3 or 4 Africans wins.
+She appears to heading in the right direction, has a track record of performing well at NCAAs (minus last year's NCAA track), and appears healthy. Her team will be contending which typically helps an individual contender. She's from the historically stronger program with the more proven coach/system.
-She's at a point in her career when her year-over-year improvement appears to be slowing significantly, and this plays mind games with athletes. NCAA track may still be in her head. The faster/easier course may not suit her to the extent it does her rivals.
Case for/against Valby
+She's been dominant all year. She is the most talented American-born runner in the field--one of the biggest engines ever amongst US women. She has a team behind her this year. The course/weather will suit her better than last year. She's beaten Tuohy this year. She's healthier than in the past.
-She's been dominant all year. Being too fit, too soon is the NCAA XC toxic trait. Her most recent race was (maybe) less dominant than the rest of her races (maybe). How healthy is she? That gait is a little wonky, but who knows. Her coach doesn't have a history of having athletes consistently ready on the big day.
I think there's a 65% chance Tuohy or Valby wins the race and a 35% chance one of 3 or 4 Africans wins.
I'm going with likelihood to win:
1. Valby 40%
2. One of 3 or 4 Africans 35%
3. Tuohy 25%
No. Her NCAA record-smashing 8:35 3000 was this year, and that is a big jump in performance.
+She appears to heading in the right direction, has a track record of performing well at NCAAs (minus last year's NCAA track), and appears healthy. Her team will be contending which typically helps an individual contender. She's from the historically stronger program with the more proven coach/system.
-She's at a point in her career when her year-over-year improvement appears to be slowing significantly, and this plays mind games with athletes. NCAA track may still be in her head. The faster/easier course may not suit her to the extent it does her rivals.
I wouldn't necessarily say that Panorama Farms is an easy course. It's not as tough as the course last year but still is not easy. Tuohy also has experience on the course.
+She appears to heading in the right direction, has a track record of performing well at NCAAs (minus last year's NCAA track), and appears healthy. Her team will be contending which typically helps an individual contender. She's from the historically stronger program with the more proven coach/system.
-She's at a point in her career when her year-over-year improvement appears to be slowing significantly, and this plays mind games with athletes. NCAA track may still be in her head. The faster/easier course may not suit her to the extent it does her rivals.
Case for/against Valby
+She's been dominant all year. She is the most talented American-born runner in the field--one of the biggest engines ever amongst US women. She has a team behind her this year. The course/weather will suit her better than last year. She's beaten Tuohy this year. She's healthier than in the past.
-She's been dominant all year. Being too fit, too soon is the NCAA XC toxic trait. Her most recent race was (maybe) less dominant than the rest of her races (maybe). How healthy is she? That gait is a little wonky, but who knows. Her coach doesn't have a history of having athletes consistently ready on the big day.
I think there's a 65% chance Tuohy or Valby wins the race and a 35% chance one of 3 or 4 Africans wins.
I'm going with likelihood to win:
1. Valby 40%
2. One of 3 or 4 Africans 35%
3. Tuohy 25%
I'm not familiar with the course. Is it that flat/easy? It also might rain overnight and be mid 50s and windy on Saturday morning, all of which would seem to favor Tuohy, especially if Valby is out front blocking the wind herself. That said, I guess she handled poor conditions reasonably well at Nuttycomb(?) earlier in the year.
I wonder how much it matters that Valby keeps running on super fast / short courses. Does Tuohy see those times, and if so does it intimidate her, or is she able to ignore it? Does it make someone like Valby overconfident?
I would flip Tuohy and the Africans in your likelihoods, but overall that's seems to be about right. I'm super excited to see how this plays out. My heart says Tuohy but my brain says Valby.
+She appears to heading in the right direction, has a track record of performing well at NCAAs (minus last year's NCAA track), and appears healthy. Her team will be contending which typically helps an individual contender. She's from the historically stronger program with the more proven coach/system.
-She's at a point in her career when her year-over-year improvement appears to be slowing significantly, and this plays mind games with athletes. NCAA track may still be in her head. The faster/easier course may not suit her to the extent it does her rivals.
I wouldn't necessarily say that Panorama Farms is an easy course. It's not as tough as the course last year but still is not easy. Tuohy also has experience on the course.
True, plus I don’t understand the assumption that an easier faster course would not suit Tuohy, who is the fastest miler by a big margin over the top 3-4 contenders. As long as she has the fitness to withstand a hard pace from the gun and can use her superior speed late in the race like last year. That is what we don’t know.
I'm not familiar with the course. Is it that flat/easy? It also might rain overnight and be mid 50s and windy on Saturday morning, all of which would seem to favor Tuohy, especially if Valby is out front blocking the wind herself. That said, I guess she handled poor conditions reasonably well at Nuttycomb(?) earlier in the year.
I wonder how much it matters that Valby keeps running on super fast / short courses. Does Tuohy see those times, and if so does it intimidate her, or is she able to ignore it? Does it make someone like Valby overconfident?
I would flip Tuohy and the Africans in your likelihoods, but overall that's seems to be about right. I'm super excited to see how this plays out. My heart says Tuohy but my brain says Valby.
No, it's not a "flat/easy" course.
Below is a video from the ACC meet from last year that was held at Panorama Farms. You can find other races on youtube that were held on the course.
No rain in the forecast; 57 deg with 43 deg dew point; 6mph NNW breeze.
Potential for rain overnight, not during the race itself. I'm seeing wind forecast of 10-12 mph, potentially gusts 15-20. At any rate, I wouldn't totally trust these forecasts this early in the week, let's see how things look on Friday.
Any dark horse candidates? Would be interesting if Valby, the Alabama Duo, and Touhy go out too hard and implode. Who would be the most likely to take advantage of that?
Maatoug and Stearns.
Agree Stearns, I'm a pack fan but imagine a Stearns & nau team win.
I also like Ramsden. She's much better than '22 and has excellent closing speed for both last k and 200m.
-She's at a point in her career when her year-over-year improvement appears to be slowing significantly, and this plays mind games with athletes. NCAA track may still be in her head. The faster/easier course may not suit her to the extent it does her rivals.
Case for/against Valby
+She's been dominant all year. She is the most talented American-born runner in the field--one of the biggest engines ever amongst US women. She has a team behind her this year. The course/weather will suit her better than last year. She's beaten Tuohy this year. She's healthier than in the past.
On the contrary, Tuohy is due for a breakthrough in the 5k and 1500m. She ran 4:24/8:35 at 20 and has not run a 5k time yet to match that. The bigger concern is her burnout and fatigue issues from last spring, and whether or not she has sufficiently recovered to start progressing again.
+Tuohy - Tuffy does not think Katelyn will lose and usually has the inside scoop so maybe they know something. Last year Tuohy's plan was to catch Valby by the bottom of the hill which she timed perfectly. This year she and Henes will have a plan
+Valby - She just does not seem to get tired and is able to post repeated hard time trial efforts. It is truly unique in the NCAA right now. She is tge likely fave. She already beat Tuohy head to head
- Tuohy - NCAA track may be in her head, agree there
-Valby - She runs crazy times but we saw similar last year
+Lemngole - 14:40 road 5k and great closing speed. We have not seen her best so there is the element of surprise.
Any dark horse candidates? Would be interesting if Valby, the Alabama Duo, and Touhy go out too hard and implode. Who would be the most likely to take advantage of that?
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