One possible scenario: V-T-L at the front. The second group you mention form a pack of 2-3 (possibly containing Matoug, Olemomoi, Kosgei) within 7-12 seconds back, hoping to hang on and pick up carnage in the last k. Next come Stearns and Chmiel, with the 3M’s of Maatoug, Markezich and Mitchell close behind. Stalking the 3M’s are Mazza-Downie, Scrimgeour, Asekol, Noe, Machu, Churchill…
I’ve likely missed some names making the top 15.
In this scenario, I'd expect Roe to be the mix with Olemomoi & co. I like Jepkirui and Ramsden ahead of Mazza-Downie and Machu, but that could change in a week.
Btw, whatever happened to FastTuohy? Username change?
Wow! That would be a huge feel good story if Taylor Roe, on her last cross country outing, decides to go out and try and hang with the top 5 as long as possible. But this deceptive course suits her.
In this scenario, I'd expect Roe to be the mix with Olemomoi & co. I like Jepkirui and Ramsden ahead of Mazza-Downie and Machu, but that could change in a week.
Btw, whatever happened to FastTuohy? Username change?
Wow! That would be a huge feel good story if Taylor Roe, on her last cross country outing, decides to go out and try and hang with the top 5 as long as possible. But this deceptive course suits her.
Recalling her various gambits Indoors, she's been known to give it a whirl on big stages.
I think whether one is a Valby fan or not, we are a bit shocked at what we witnessed in her two recent performances.
Yes. The only counterpoint I will make, looking at it further, is that the men's 8k winning time at SEC was quite fast also - 22:23. Valby's time was about 83.2% of the mens winning time which is slightly fast but not startlingly so. Lemngole was 85.7%. Tuohy was 84.0% at ACCs.
At nutty Valby was 82.5%, Tuohy 83.3%.
But the men were on a sloppier, already worked-over course at Nuttycombe, and tended to pack run more.
Yes. The only counterpoint I will make, looking at it further, is that the men's 8k winning time at SEC was quite fast also - 22:23. Valby's time was about 83.2% of the mens winning time which is slightly fast but not startlingly so. Lemngole was 85.7%. Tuohy was 84.0% at ACCs.
At nutty Valby was 82.5%, Tuohy 83.3%.
But the men were on a sloppier, already worked-over course at Nuttycombe, and tended to pack run more.
Yeah the men were slower, which may be why Tuohy and Valby looked relatively faster at Nuttycombe since they went out hard.
If you compare Valby's Course record at Nutty to Robinson's (from last year), its 83.3%.
Not sure if this has any meaning. Was more or less just illustrating that I think SEC was a fast course and Valby ran hard, because she performed similarly to other performances relative to the men's time.
You missed my point. She ran 18:25 last year so why should 18:37 shock us?
In her SEC 2023 Post-Race interview, Valby was a little surprised her time was not faster, considering how hard she ran, but she felt the traction, due to sand, was questionable in some areas.
NOTE: Conditions in 2023 were a bit more uncomfortable than in 2022 (see below), and the 2022 course may have been a bit short.
Conditions: Temp/DewPoint (degF), wind Oct 28, 2022….18:25.9 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 65/53, 10mph wind Comments: groomed golf course fairways, breeze to cool off; Course MAY HAVE BEEN SHORT.
Oct 27, 2023…. 18:37.5 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 72/64, 3mph wind Comments: Sandy side of golf course, no breeze to cool off, sun higher in sky (1hr later than 2022 race); Course distance PROBABLY ACCURATE.
You missed my point. She ran 18:25 last year so why should 18:37 shock us?
In her SEC 2023 Post-Race interview, Valby was a little surprised her time was not faster, considering how hard she ran, but she felt the traction, due to sand, was questionable in some areas.
NOTE: Conditions in 2023 were a bit more uncomfortable than in 2022 (see below), and the 2022 course may have been a bit short.
Conditions: Temp/DewPoint (degF), wind Oct 28, 2022….18:25.9 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 65/53, 10mph wind Comments: groomed golf course fairways, breeze to cool off; Course MAY HAVE BEEN SHORT.
Oct 27, 2023…. 18:37.5 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 72/64, 3mph wind Comments: Sandy side of golf course, no breeze to cool off, sun higher in sky (1hr later than 2022 race); Course distance PROBABLY ACCURATE.
Ok but per my post above, what would Kiprop's temp adjusted time be then? Probably 21:XX. I don't want to take away from her effort, but I am more skeptical after realizing how fast the men ran as well.
In her SEC 2023 Post-Race interview, Valby was a little surprised her time was not faster, considering how hard she ran, but she felt the traction, due to sand, was questionable in some areas.
NOTE: Conditions in 2023 were a bit more uncomfortable than in 2022 (see below), and the 2022 course may have been a bit short.
Conditions: Temp/DewPoint (degF), wind Oct 28, 2022….18:25.9 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 65/53, 10mph wind Comments: groomed golf course fairways, breeze to cool off; Course MAY HAVE BEEN SHORT.
Oct 27, 2023…. 18:37.5 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 72/64, 3mph wind Comments: Sandy side of golf course, no breeze to cool off, sun higher in sky (1hr later than 2022 race); Course distance PROBABLY ACCURATE.
Ok but per my post above, what would Kiprop's temp adjusted time be then? Probably 21:XX. I don't want to take away from her effort, but I am more skeptical after realizing how fast the men ran as well.
Victor Kiprop - Temp adjusted about 21:35... Temp adjustments can be a little misleading. Have any of the men ever run an 8k under 22 minutes?
In her SEC 2023 Post-Race interview, Valby was a little surprised her time was not faster, considering how hard she ran, but she felt the traction, due to sand, was questionable in some areas.
NOTE: Conditions in 2023 were a bit more uncomfortable than in 2022 (see below), and the 2022 course may have been a bit short.
Conditions: Temp/DewPoint (degF), wind Oct 28, 2022….18:25.9 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 65/53, 10mph wind Comments: groomed golf course fairways, breeze to cool off; Course MAY HAVE BEEN SHORT.
Oct 27, 2023…. 18:37.5 TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 18:16 72/64, 3mph wind Comments: Sandy side of golf course, no breeze to cool off, sun higher in sky (1hr later than 2022 race); Course distance PROBABLY ACCURATE.
Ok but per my post above, what would Kiprop's temp adjusted time be then? Probably 21:XX. I don't want to take away from her effort, but I am more skeptical after realizing how fast the men ran as well.
Please clarify, you are “more skeptical” of what, exactly?
Ok but per my post above, what would Kiprop's temp adjusted time be then? Probably 21:XX. I don't want to take away from her effort, but I am more skeptical after realizing how fast the men ran as well.
Please clarify, you are “more skeptical” of what, exactly?
That the course was really a full 6k or that she will crush Tuohy by some crazy margin. (Not saying she won't win). The men's performance kind of puts the time in context more for me.
Ok but per my post above, what would Kiprop's temp adjusted time be then? Probably 21:XX. I don't want to take away from her effort, but I am more skeptical after realizing how fast the men ran as well.
Victor Kiprop - Temp adjusted about 21:35... Temp adjustments can be a little misleading. Have any of the men ever run an 8k under 22 minutes?
That is not the correct temp adjustment for VK.
Here you go:
Victor Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:23.4 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:08 A 22:23 8k has a 13:35 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. VK has a 13:24 PB on the track.
Patrick Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:31.6 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:17 A 22:32 8k has a 13:40 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. PK has a 13:36 PB on the track.
Please clarify, you are “more skeptical” of what, exactly?
That the course was really a full 6k or that she will crush Tuohy by some crazy margin. (Not saying she won't win). The men's performance kind of puts the time in context more for me.
Who said PV was going to crush KT by some crazy margin?
The result, and margin of victory, at Nuttycombe was unquestionably what was the more shocking of PV’s two races this season. Nobody looking from the outside thought KT was going to lose. That race was a “tough mudder”, and Tuohy was heavily favored.
Victor Kiprop - Temp adjusted about 21:35... Temp adjustments can be a little misleading. Have any of the men ever run an 8k under 22 minutes?
That is not the correct temp adjustment for VK.
Here you go:
Victor Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:23.4 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:08 A 22:23 8k has a 13:35 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. VK has a 13:24 PB on the track.
Patrick Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:31.6 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:17 A 22:32 8k has a 13:40 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. PK has a 13:36 PB on the track.
for completeness, what were the conditions of the 2 prs? Patrick ran 13:24 indoors I think, the 13:36 was at Bryan Clay so probably a nice cool SoCal night (?). Victor ran 13:40 in that race. His 13:24 was from the same meet in 2022. I'm too lazy to hunt down the conditions tho which are not in tfrrs.
That the course was really a full 6k or that she will crush Tuohy by some crazy margin. (Not saying she won't win). The men's performance kind of puts the time in context more for me.
Who said PV was going to crush KT by some crazy margin?
The result, and margin of victory, at Nuttycombe was unquestionably what was the more shocking of PV’s two races this season. Nobody looking from the outside thought KT was going to lose. That race was a “tough mudder”, and Tuohy was heavily favored.
In addition, in tough conditions, the previous course record fell.
Victor Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:23.4 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:08 A 22:23 8k has a 13:35 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. VK has a 13:24 PB on the track.
Patrick Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:31.6 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:17 A 22:32 8k has a 13:40 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. PK has a 13:36 PB on the track.
for completeness, what were the conditions of the 2 prs? Patrick ran 13:24 indoors I think, the 13:36 was at Bryan Clay so probably a nice cool SoCal night (?). Victor ran 13:40 in that race. His 13:24 was from the same meet in 2022. I'm too lazy to hunt down the conditions tho which are not in tfrrs.
It is starting to split hairs. Some athletes are more heat-acclimated than others.
Victor Kiprop - Temp adjusted about 21:35... Temp adjustments can be a little misleading. Have any of the men ever run an 8k under 22 minutes?
That is not the correct temp adjustment for VK.
Here you go:
Victor Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:23.4 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:08 A 22:23 8k has a 13:35 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. VK has a 13:24 PB on the track.
Patrick Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:31.6 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:17 A 22:32 8k has a 13:40 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. PK has a 13:36 PB on the track.
Ok thanks. According the this VK and PK ran pretty close to their 'equivalent' 5k PRs in this race, eothout factoring in the temp. I guess that would make sense. Not sure what that tells us about Valby except maybe her 18:37 equivalent is pretty close to her 5k PR too?
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